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My venture into tournies! (cashed now need help)

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  1. #1

    Default My venture into tournies! (cashed now need help)

    This hand takes place in the 20 dollar rebuy and add on on full tilt. Everyone had just made the money. Blinds are at 800/1.6k with a 200 ante and I have a stack of 47.5k. Villain in the hand is the chip leader and has 150k, he has been very crazy lately especially during the bubble and is running at 29/20/1.6. He has a 3 bet % of 10 and has 3 balled my last couple of raises, most of the time when he has position on me. According to shark scope he has 80 tournaments played with an avg ROI of -27% at the average stake of 88 bucks. He made one pretty thin call when he raised the bb right before the break and the bb shoved 30k over his raise and he called with A8. His opponent in that hand was a maniac but I still think its probably bad.


    This hand follows. 8 handed.

    I open TT from UTG+1 to 4000
    Folded to chip leader on CO who 3 bets to 16000..........

    What do I do?
    Flopping quads and boats like its my job
  2. #2
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I prolly stop'n'go here.
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  3. #3
    Just to clear it up a bit for myself by stop n go you mean call pf, c/c flop and lead the turn? or just lead the flop with the hand?
    Flopping quads and boats like its my job
  4. #4
    lolzzz_321's Avatar
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    My ice is polarized
    call pre, and push ai on the flop
  5. #5
    chardrian's Avatar
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    yup, what trip said.

    There's an argument for just pushing pre as well - TT has a slight equity edge over what I consider to be a standard 10% 3-bet range:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 53.081% 52.40% 00.68% 619096764 8047518.00 { TT }
    Hand 1: 46.919% 46.24% 00.68% 546297960 8047518.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }

    There's even an argument to fold - TT doesn't play THAT well against top 10%. I just think that's too nitty.

    As far as why I like the stop'n'go>push pre: it forces a lot of the hands in his range that would be basic flips if he called a push pre into 2:1 dogs. Hands like AJ-AK, QK now have to hit the flop to call your flop push which will only happen about 1/3 time. Hands like 77-99 will still call on a blank flop. You might even get a fold out of JJ-KK on an A hi flop. The only bad part of stop'n'going is that you might get 77-99 to fold on a scray flop when they would have called a push pre.
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  6. #6
    Fold vs. most people, shove vs. this maniac, whatever you do don't stop and go. Sounds like a good idea but it really isn't because it turns out to be worse even vs the type of hand that it seems to make sense against (overcards).

    Let's say he has AKo and folds unless he hits the flop. About 67% he folds to your flop shove, 30% he calls and you're behind 90-10, and 3% you flop a set AND he flops a pair and you get it in ahead 97-3. Equity of stop-n-go is
    (.67)(+25k) + (.30)(-34k) * (.03)(+56k) = +8.2k on average.

    If you just shove you get it in vs. AKo ahead 57-43 which is like +13k.

    Also his stackoff blind vs blind with A8 is 100% standard vs anyone remotely aggressive.
  7. #7
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Let's say he has AKo and folds unless he hits the flop. About 67% he folds to your flop shove, 30% he calls and you're behind 90-10, and 3% you flop a set AND he flops a pair and you get it in ahead 97-3. Equity of stop-n-go is
    (.67)(+25k) + (.30)(-34k) * (.03)(+56k) = +8.2k on average.
    I'm not going to disagree with the math - but I don't understand it and would like to know it.

    Where are u getting the 25k, 34k and 56k figures from?
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  8. #8
    25k pot size when he folds

    34k chips lost when he makes a pair

    56k chip won when we make the set and he makes a pair

    imo
  9. #9
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I would agree but it doesn't add up. Hero starts w/47.5k. Villain 3 bets to 16k.

    If we call, the pot will be about 36k, and we'll have 31.5k.
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  10. #10
    Should be 90/10 and 97/3, so they won't quite add
  11. #11
    Yeah we're losing 47.5k if we lose the pot but you have to account for the possibility of spiking a two-outer.

    Look at it this way, if we shove flop and he has missed overcards, we're allowing him to make a good laydown, but if we shove preflop he can't because he's already all-in. Stop-and-g0 is only good if you get people to fold better hands on the flop and the odds of that are slim to none here IMO (of course if he folds JJ on a flop with overcards then it's good but that's really unlikely).
  12. #12
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Here's how I'd do the math - please correct my mistakes:

    1) since we are planning on stop'n'going I won't count the 12k I call as a profit, but the 4k I bet is already gone and I'll win that back so: 4k +16k (villain's bet) + 4k (blinds and antes) = 24k. So I get .67(24k)=+16k.

    2) When we push and he has a pair we are losing 43.5k 90% of the time and gaining 51.5k 10% of the time. So 90% of 30% = 27%. .27(-43.5)=-11.7. And 10% of 30% = 3%. .03(51.5)=+1.5k. Total for pushing into a pair that beats us on flop = -10.2.

    3) .03(51.5k) what we get when we hit a set and he has a pair (I am just giving us 100% winrate here) = +1.5k.

    16-10.2+1.5=7.3k total.
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  13. #13
    chardrian's Avatar
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    the math for a push is hard because we don't know what our villain's range really is. Since he is getting better than 2:1 we can assume villain will call 100% tho (even tho I know this isn't true).

    If villain really is just raising 10% of hands:

    .53(51.5k) - .47(47.5k)=27.3-22.3=+5k

    So I still get the stop'n'go as a better play by over 1BB.
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  14. #14
    Given the read, I just push, you clobber his range.
  15. #15
    chardrian's Avatar
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    There's a difference between running 29/20 and 3betting 10%.

    TT does not clobber a 10% range.

    BTW - I am not saying pushing is bad. I am still looking for a good response that the push>stop'n'go.
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  16. #16
    Sorry, I was posting from the airport last night in Argentina, and forgot about this thread.

    All I was doing before was showing that push > stop n go vs. one hand (AKo) since that's the type of hand you were arguing we should stop n go and let him see 3 cards instead of 5.

    No one is going to be able to tell you the EV of a stop n go, because he has too many hands in his range and there's too many different flops for us to ever hope to put together what he'll do on all of them. Your math above (in post #12 of this thread) assumes that he has overcards, which is only part of his range, so you can't compare that to the EV of a push vs his whole range. Best you can do is compare the EV one hand at a time. IMO push is better vs. overcards, push is better vs. underpairs and other hands we dominate, stop n go is MAYBE better vs hands like JJ and QQ that might fold a few flops but I really doubt it (although, if they do fold sometimes, that makes a gigantic difference in favor of the stop n go, I still like a push because it's a better play vs. almost all of his range).
  17. #17
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    All I was doing before was showing that push > stop n go vs. one hand (AKo) since that's the type of hand you were arguing we should stop n go and let him see 3 cards instead of 5.
    Yeah I realized that. But if my math is correct, I proved you wrong; i.e. it is my position that my math above show a stop'n'go to be making 7.3k in chips but a shove will only net 5k.

    Like I said, I am not a math guy, so it's possible I am wrong. I know mcat that you are a math guy, so if I am wrong show me where (and try and dumb it down if possible).
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  18. #18
    well TT is 57-43 vs AKo, not 53-47. If you fix those numbers it looks like it makes a big enough difference to make push > stop n go.
  19. #19
    chardrian's Avatar
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    yup it does. Fair nuff.
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  20. #20
    Challenging the Mcat math is like eating the wheel of cheese imo

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