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Tournament hand analysis, deep run, 50 left from 1800

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  1. #1

    Default Tournament hand analysis, deep run, 50 left from 1800

    Hey guys here is a hand from a tournament I just played in there, I was in the CO and had an early raiser, being short stacked and with the blinds eating me up I decided to shove with my AQ, busting out in 45th place. The whole table was playing quite loose and it was pretty much fold/shove mode.

    Did I make the right play? Or the wrong?

    I believe he made the wrong call and play with what he was holding preflop which doesn't mean my play was the right one either, but that is just my opinion and it could be wrong, but who am I too judge. It would be good to hear others opinions on the hand

    Thanks!

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 0.82 Tournament, 4,000/8,000 Blinds 1,000 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

    Button (t152,793)
    SB (t110,953)
    BB (t227,488)
    UTG (t89,370)
    UTG+1 (t72,837)
    MP1 (t99,734)
    MP2 (t141,254)
    MP3 (t54,498)
    Hero (CO) (t63,909)

    Hero's M: 3.04

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, A
    1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t16,000, 3 folds, Hero raises to t62,909 (All-In), 3 folds, UTG+1 calls t46,909

    Flop: (t146,818) 6, 5, 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Turn: (t146,818) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    River: (t146,818) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Total pot: t146,818

    Results below:
    Spoiler:

    UTG+1 had 6, 6 (full house, sixes over fives).
    Hero had Q, A (one pair, fives).
    Outcome: UTG+1 won t146,818
    Last edited by MrFerguson91; 05-27-2015 at 12:10 PM.
  2. #2
    With a bit more analysis of the hand it was a losing play statistically with me being a 44.9% underdog to his 54.62% with his 66

    but with the circumstances at play with stack sizes (7BB left) / stage of tournament / reads, I am really clueless whether it was right or not

    Poker Odds-Calculator from FlopTurnRiver.com
    Holdem Hi: 100,000 sampled boards
    Player 1 (A Q): win 44.99% lose 54.62% tie 0.39% EV 0.452
    Player 2 (6 6): win 54.62% lose 44.99% tie 0.39% EV 0.548
    Last edited by MrFerguson91; 05-27-2015 at 12:26 PM.
  3. #3
    Considering your stack it was the right decision
  4. #4
    Thanks for the feedback mate!
  5. #5
    your move is obv good, also i can say folding or calling there is very very bad

    i dont like his raise, i prefer him just to direct shove, and after that raise he has to call for sure, it would be pretty bad if he folds
  6. #6
    7bb deep both played right, except that I also think that direct shove would have been better for UTG+1.. Bet-folding 66 at that point would have have been a huge mistake.
  7. #7
    Its a 0,82 buy in tournament, in that stake when people open raise 2bb when they are shortstack instead of shoving that means one thing: weakness, he is not going to have hands that have you beat there, so your push is perfect given stack sizes. You won't face a flip all the times, he may call with worst aces and even KQ KJ
  8. #8
    Thanks guys it's good to know it was the right play, came 30th last night in a $0.27, 1k out of around 4800 runners so getting closer and closer to a big score! Little reward though of $2 roughly for getting that far seems not worth it but the $150 first prize in them would be a great ROI. The fields are so soft in these tourneys and it's great practice, every time I get deep in a tourney I am learning new things from the mistakes I make

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