I am not posting much here, but I will try to contribute some more - that is if I keep torturing myself with playing poker.
Just looked back - last time I won something relatively more significant was Oct 11 and Oct 12, got $ 81 in $3 buy-in and $ 196 in $22 buy-in (I won the seat via a sat). So nearly 2 month ago!
The days go about the same - I lose all races I'm ahead in ONE AFTER THE OTHER. Starting to play real bad too, overplaying mediocre hands and lacking aggressiveness where I should be - as I am totally gun shy.
Here are the significant hands from today:
Pic 1 - is from game 1.50 pounds buy-in (300 grtee) with 78 runners, 9itm, hand after 1 hr of play
Pic 2 - is from restricted €200 freeroll, 68 runners - turbo - finished 38th after 30 minutes
Pic 3 - is from €5 buy-in 50% bounty €100 added - not proud of my play - I called the itm... still an other race lost out in 22nd of 27 runners
Pic 4 - Is from €1 buy-in €500 added turbo game finished 81st of 204 runners. Again - did not play well.. here is how it went
I had 3165 chips, BB 300, I did 3xBB - (really should have shoved), one caller, the BB person went all-in, I followed with an allin - the caller also all-in... all that was preflop... True I played bad - but pretty sure even if I shoved the BB would have called and I still would have been out.
This is all the games I played today.
What do you advise, how to cope - this is going on for weeks now. (except a few mini cashes) Or just quit?
Just to clarify - my point is not losing 4 games of 4 played - the point is losing one after the other any race/ any showdown I am involved in.
Actually I have 2 more pics. (was not sure I can upload) I did win one hand! today, and I lost an other race too during the game in pic 2 and the game in pic 4.
If you start with a dollar and I flip a 4 sided die playing double or nothing and I give you 75% to my 25% and we flip 10 times how many times will you win all 10 flips?
If you start with a dollar and I flip a 4 sided die playing double or nothing and I give you 75% to my 25% and we flip 10 times how many times will you win all 10 flips?
I really do not have any expectations of winning all races...
my expectation simply is that if I get into 10 races where I am FAVORITE (ie 505 or better favorite) I should win about half .. ok let's say I win 40%... or maybe 30% .. or how about just 25%
But getting about 10% seems totally a bad streak variance...
My question was/ is / how do you emotionally cope with it - and don't start doing what I just explained above I find myself doing (overplay mediocre cards or just no aggression left in me). I think I am not really tilting in the true sense of the word (I do that at times too - that is going wild and betting everything at all), I try to be calm before the next game/hand... yes TRY is the word... not always succeeding - hence the question...
PS. I did not really understand your example - just am assuming you are referring to odds
You only have to lose the last race, it doesn't mean your losing all of them. are you telling me you are losing the first time you get most of your chips or all in in every tournament?
Everyone but one person in every tournament loses their last all in, just like everyone in sports playoffs except the winner loses their last game. Your focusing on a menial part of the game. If you enter into 1000 tournaments vs the same 1000 people, how often do you expect to win a tournament?
You only have to lose the last race, it doesn't mean your losing all of them. are you telling me you are losing the first time you get most of your chips or all in in every tournament?
As unbelievable as it sounds - yes I am doing totally horrible on ALL showdowns. Yes I win some hands - be stealing and aggression - but lose lose lose on showdowns this is why it is getting so depressing.
Originally Posted by jyms
If you enter into 1000 tournaments vs the same 1000 people, how often do you expect to win a tournament?
Yes of course - win expect (skill being the same) is 1/1000 - and itm apx 1/100 if top 10% paid. I am not that new... but expect to get my excitement my "hope" in the game not to be crushed as soon as there is a showdown. Want to get some of the good feeling of take a big pot home..
since i seem not to get that - how do I stay motivated?
Understanding the math, and understanding why we play is what motivates us. Long losing streaks, like winning streaks are just part of the small sample you have had. Play 5000 tournaments and come back,
Just when I felt near the end of my rope (as you can tell from the above), right after I posted the next 2 games I played were good games, fun to play.
I finished 4th in one, a freeroll - and second in a small buy-in.
There is nothing like a bit of success to start restoring self confidence
Variance in MTTs is ridiculous. They might not be right for you if it affects you this hard.
What's your ROI?
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Variance in MTTs is ridiculous. They might not be right for you if it affects you this hard.
What's your ROI?
Really fair comment. Appreciate it.
I never actually calculated my ROI... - I do keep track of my costs and gains (all games I play - pretty accurately on a spreadsheet) so just calculated it now - it is 1.29 never paid any attention to it.
Basically I consider that I play for fun. I do play a lot - but did not invest proper time in reading enough about poker, nor do I have a HUD. I think that I play I decent game, and since I play (apx 5 years) every year I am ahead. That is my original "purpose" to have fun - at no cost - but with some gain - is on track.
I guess as time passes - a few things are changing, although overall I am on the plus side of the game - I really WANT MORE NOW.
Also I find that I am somewhat less patient less tolerant of CONTINUOUS bad beats.
1,2,3,4 consecutive bad beats do not put me in a "bad mood" - really shake them off easily for the most part, except the real ridiculous ones, but when the streak of loss /bad beats HANDS (not games) becomes very long - yea I get "depressed" I guess.
Is all this "normal"?
I suppose - I should invest some time and read a bit more...
1.29 as in 129% or 29%? The first is unrealistic in the long run, the 2nd is only really realistic if you play micro stakes and put some more work into your game.
If you win a tournament for 100 buyins when you're ROI is only 30%, then you're instantly 98.7 buyins above what ROI for that one tournament. If you then break even over the next 75 tournaments or so you're back to your true level of ROI. MTTs will have massive break even and losing stretches because the winnings of just one or two tournaments will counteract that.
1.29 as in 129% or 29%? The first is unrealistic in the long run, the 2nd is only really realistic if you play micro stakes and put some more work into your game.
If you win a tournament for 100 buyins when you're ROI is only 30%, then you're instantly 98.7 buyins above what ROI for that one tournament. If you then break even over the next 75 tournaments or so you're back to your true level of ROI. MTTs will have massive break even and losing stretches because the winnings of just one or two tournaments will counteract that.
I suppose it is 29%
It is basically the ratio - of without giving actual numbers - my total buy-ins = $1000 - then my total wins = $1290
Yes I play very low buy-in tourneys. $1- to 5 .. occasionally $10 and very rarely bigger. Great majority is $2-$5
The above ratio is for all the tourneys I played in 2012
Can you give me more feedback on all the above points knowing this info?
And - in prior years the RIO - would have been somewhat similar (the way i kept the stats does not allow me a quick calculation, numbers include some casino play etc. ) But I am pretty certain it would be apx in the same range. Perhaps this year it is somewhat lower the ROI. (I think I played more and a bit higher buy-ins, and overall $ gain a little lower)
One thought I have about that (lower ROI) is that perhaps the quality of poker play on line is improving and because i have not invested time in reading and $ in HUD, I am losing ground...
The nature of MTT play is to have long stretches of crap, then if you're good, capitalizations (top 3 finishes) to propel you into profitability. A typical winning MTT player's graph should look something like this:
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
Please HELP - way too long bad streak
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Originally Posted by jyms
