NFD facing heat from passive player

[deucesomething]

MP is 23/8 with a 27% afq and .4 AF, hasn't raised a single flop over 100 hands. UTG is standard TAG. Given that fact that I have a hard time putting MP on anything but sets here is this a standard fold on the flop or am I missing something?


SB: $198.00
BB: $214.30
UTG: $209.15
MP: $195.00
CO: $522.40
Hero (BTN): $218.70

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with K A
UTG raises to $7.00, MP calls $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $7, 1 fold, BB calls $5

Flop: ($29.00) 4 5 9 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $20.00, BB folds, UTG folds, MP raises to $56.00, Hero ...

[pocketfours]

His raise isn't big enough imo.

[bikes]

Call.

[deucesomething]

is he giving us the right odds to call the flop to spike a spade ott assuming his range is sets only? Am I giving him too tight of a range considering stats are only over 100 hands?


Turn: ($141.00) K (2 players)
MP bets $132 all in, fold now?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

yes fold now

[Ravageur]

This is what I was about to write : "100 hands isn't a big enough sample for me to be sure his range is only sets, and nits spazz sometimes. I'm snapping here but I'm a station fwiw".

Then I relooked the hand over, and he pretty much has a set 99.3% of the time here. So yeah, fold now. If he had raised flop smaller or bigger I'd probably snap this if that makes sense.

[sauce123]

fold flop with stacksizes, if you were 60$ deeper id call

[griffey24]

yes fold now

fold flop with stacksizes, if you were 60$ deeper id call

Wow all the posts in this thread make me feel like the biggest station, since I'm never folding this flop and would have a verrry hard time and end up stubborn calling this turn.

The immediate odds we're getting on the flop are like almost 3:1. We must have some implied odds when we hit the turn... how is this a flop fold? I feel like the the implied odds we have when we hit will outweigh the times we hit and get re-drawn by boats.

[Renton]

Your flop bet is too large. 8 to 15 would have been sufficient.

[sauce123]

cause we hit 1/5th of the time and when we do hit he has 10 outs

[lancelott_]

sauce,, how do you came up with 60$ more specifically?

[sauce123]

guessed

[nutsinho]

reraise preflop 100% of the time please. i guess fold flop if mp is incompetent otherwise shove or call/call

[shakesss]

against someone who only plays those stats and doesnt really adjust at all to game flow i would probably call and fold an equal amount of the time on the flop ( table image would really dictate that decision) and fold most turns. If uve been super laggy and are always picking up pots like this in position maybe he might raise 10's or something on the flop for value which make it a slightly less of a fml spot. Always folding the turn though given the action.