3b JJ on bb facing sb back-raise 10nl

[The Bean Counter]

Pre 3b okay and ship it to the back-raise?

Btn is ABC 15/12, opens 29% of buttons from 21 opportunities, hasn't 4bet in 3 opportunities.
Sb is 13/8, low aggression, flats 11% on the sb. Never seen him do anything like this in 400 hands.


Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($4.29)
MP1 ($9.23)
MP2 ($11.09)
CO ($10.15)
Button ($9.70)
SB ($9.60)
Hero (BB) ($13.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
5 folds, Button bets $0.40, SB calls $0.35, Hero raises $1.10, 1 fold, SB raises $3.60, Hero??

[kickass]

I really want to fold.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm going to fold probably 99% of the time here (1% tilt/curiosity jam). When Villains do something I haven't seen them do before, I tend to assume it's the nuts. If I see it again, I will get at least some idea of the frequency with which they do it. Hopefully, someone else will call them down next time, and I get to see their cards for free. Then I take a note.

[The Bean Counter]

My thinking is that he shows up with AQ here almost always.

For further info, btn has folded to 3b 2/3 times in my sample. It's also possible (but doubtful) that sb has seen me make this play before.

[BorisTheSpider]

I really want to fold.

This

[d0zer]

Your 3bet image and SB's 3bet% are pretty important here.

[The Bean Counter]

Your 3bet image and SB's 3bet% are pretty important here.

My 3 bet image: Shouldn't be anything too unusual in his sample of 400+ hands. Assume 4-5% out of the bb, probably a little higher against a steal but not significantly.

SB's 3b % is 1.9% from over 160 opportunities. Villain has never 3b any position apart from the blinds and his sb 3b is 6.5%. Has folded sb to steal 3 out of 6.

[d0zer]

I'm having trouble believing that he doesn't 3b AA/KK here, and that makes me want to jam.

[Shotglass]

Fold button is on the left.

[dranger7070]

I'm having trouble believing that he doesn't 3b AA/KK here, and that makes me want to jam.

Agreed for the most part. Really feels like AK.

[kickass]

I certainly don't think going with the hand is bad, if you feel he never shows up with QQ+ here then it's obviously fine. I have only ever been back raised by a reg 2ce and both times it was KK and both times were this month.

[Shotglass]

Sb is 13/8, low aggression, flats 11% on the sb. Never seen him do anything like this in 400 hands.

^^^This is what makes me want to fold.
He followed his tendency to flat from the sb, now it looks like he's trying to iso. Call me a nit, but I'm not curious enough about what he would do this with to warrant a call, plus do we really think a 13/8 will bluff like this?

[dranger7070]

I thinks its AK/KK+ 100% of the time. This is never a bluff.

12 combos of KK/AA
16 of AK

We have like idk, 36% equity vs this.range, decent.amount of dead money... Its probably close either way, just depends on how.risk.adverse you are.

[The Bean Counter]

So far then:

2 say jam it (Bean, d0zer)
5 say fold it (Kick, MMM, Boris, Shot, doc)

Anybody else?

[BorisTheSpider]

This is never a bluff.

To expand a little, yeah I second this - it's basically never a bluff.

Given that only 10% of your stack is in the pot already, and that he raises big enough to put you in a shove or fold situation, you want to be no worse than flipping to get the money in right?

Here's a range you're flipping with:

99+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo

If a passive 15/12 is doing this with KQo or 99, I'll eat my hat.

[dranger7070]

Why do you think you'd want to be no worse than flipping?

[rpm]

Why do you think you'd want to be no worse than flipping?

QFT. if there was no money in the pot (including no blinds) and villain open-shoved then yeah we would never want to be worse than a flip if we like winning money. but the fact that there is money in the pot changes this.

[BorisTheSpider]

Why do you think you'd want to be no worse than flipping?

Not enough already in the pot to make much of a difference.

[dranger7070]

You realize there is 51bb in the pot right?

[The Bean Counter]

Here's a range you're flipping with:

99+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo

If a passive 15/12 is doing this with KQo or 99, I'll eat my hat.

Hmm, my snap thought was that villain has seen pros back-raise on tv against squeeze plays with AQ and levelled himself into it. This is the first time I've stopped myself during a hand and used Pokerstove, which I'll be doing more of in future. I gave him TT-QQ, AQo+, AQs+, partly as his timing seemed off, and jammed it against his AQo. It was only afterwards that I thought that I could be levelling myself assigning villain that range.

[d0zer]

yeah it's a mistake to not take out or heavily discount KK,AA, and even AK.

[BorisTheSpider]

You realize there is 51bb in the pot right?

Yeah, but I'm not really giving much credit to the idea of there being any dead money here - as far as I can see, this is very much a live pot. If we shove we're nearly always getting called. No matter how you look at the size of the pot as a whole now he's raised, we've still only committed about 10% of our stack so far, so we're not super-far from the situation of considering a call vs. an open shove. If we get it in we risk 85bb to win a pot of 196bb - we need 44% equity, so to allow some margin for error in estimating villains range I think being no worse than flipping isn't a bad way to look at it.

[dranger7070]

51bb in pot right now.

Villain started with 96bb, we've already put in 11bb.

96-11 = 85bb.

85bb + 85bb + 51bb = 221bb

85/(85 + 51) = 38.5% equity.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.919% 59.71% 00.21% 28628530 99439.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.081% 39.87% 00.21% 19117104 99439.00 { JdJh }


Throw in any QQ, any spazz and any AQ and it seems like a shove on my end.

[rpm]

wouldn't QQ being in there make our equity worse? because there would be a higher % of 80/20's in his range (QQ+) than coin-flips (AK)? genuine question btw, i dont have stove on this computer to check it.

that question aside, i like a shove. i think KK can be discounted enough for us to just get it in here.

[BorisTheSpider]

51bb in pot right now.

Villain started with 96bb, we've already put in 11bb.

I checked it again, After he calls the $1.10 raise, there's 26bb in the pot (our 11bb raise, his call, 4bb of dead money from the SB) with 85 behind, so if we get it in with him the pot is 196bb (26 + 2x85), so we definitely need 44% equity as a bare minimum.

We'd just break-even (ignoring rake) if we shoved and were always called against JJ+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+. I wouldn't want to take the variance without some kind of edge, so if we do discount AA/KK/AK then we'd be exactly flipping with QQ-JJ,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo which just seems too wide to me.

Ima foldin'

[tiltingdonkey]

You misread it Boris. SB raised to 36bb, so that's 36bb + 11bb + 4bb = 51bb in the pot already, as doctor said.

In game I'm pretty sure I'm folding this, but given the math, well, I like shoving.

[BorisTheSpider]

You misread it Boris. SB raised to 36bb, so that's 36bb + 11bb + 4bb = 51bb in the pot already, as doctor said.

In game I'm pretty sure I'm folding this, but given the math, well, I like shoving.

Yeah, sure, he hasn't just called but has also raised, but that doesn't change what the pot will be in total if we get it all-in.

Look at it this way - if all the money goes in the pot is our/SBs effective stacks when we started the hand (96bb x2) + the 4bb of dead money from the button.

The pot if we shove and get called is definitely 196bb, and we definitely have to risk 85bb to play that pot.

[Imthenewfish]

Yeah, sure, he hasn't just called but has also raised, but that doesn't change what the pot will be in total if we get it all-in.

Look at it this way - if all the money goes in the pot is our/SBs effective stacks when we started the hand (96bb x2) + the 4bb of dead money from the button.

The pot if we shove and get called is definitely 196bb, and we definitely have to risk 85bb to play that pot.

if you have 72o and you cold 4b to 98bb, should you fold to a shove? why? sure, overall it might be a bad play, but the problem lies in the cold 4 bet, not the decision to call after they shove.

(I'm not saying the initial 3b is bad in this hand)

[Shotglass]

This hand brings up the question of do we give more value to the "mathematically correct" play like dranger showed or to reads on our opponents?

I'm still leaning toward a fold - he hasn't made this move in ~400 hands so imo it's just too out of character for this guy to get me to call. (but maybe I suffer from monsters)

[rpm]

This hand brings up the question of do we give more value to the "mathematically correct" play like dranger showed or to reads on our opponents?

imo there is no difference. our "reads" make up the range we put them on. once we have our best estimate of our opponents range, we then try to determine what the correct (or "mathematically correct" if you like but goddamn i hate thinking of this stuff as purely mathematical) play is.

[dranger7070]

Sklanksy (I think) said it best when he said that the most hotly debated spots are the one's where the edge is the thinnest. You aren't losing much by folding here, and I wouldn't fault you for doing it. You also aren't gaining much of an edge by shoving here either, so I wouldn't fault anyone for doing that either (especially since after the number crunching it's the 'mathematically correct' play to make).

It's not a spot that will come up that often, so I think this topic can pretty much be wrapped up. It just depends on if you're willing to push that razor thin edge (and imo you should be) or not. If not, whatevs, it's your money, no one else's. You've earned the right to make whatever plays you want.

Good talk boys (and girl). Was an intriguing HH to discuss.

[rpm]

"the decisions the trouble you the most matter the least" (or something to that effect) - tommy angelo

[kickass]

"For most people Friday is just the day before the weekend but after this Friday things will never be the same" Craig jones

[OngBonga]

I'm having trouble believing that he doesn't 3b AA/KK here, and that makes me want to jam.

Yup. Not folding.

[d0zer]

at 100NL, bad regs used to backraise my 3bets often enough. It seemed like their thought process was never "oh I'm gunna trap this guy with AA/KK cuz he 3bets a lot", they don't think that far in advance. They think "oh I'm gunna call my SB with 88 here cuz I haz 88 OMG that f'n guy 3bet again, must be a light squeeze, I'll 4bet him cuz he probably has air OH CRAP HE JAMMED, MUST BE AK I CALL".

This is how bad regs think.

[OngBonga]

Yeah I expect to see 88-TT much more often than QQ-AA, so his range is heavily weighted towards hands we crush or flip with, rather than hands that crush us. So fuck him and his stupid c/4b line, shove and laugh when he snaps his nines.