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  1. #1
    Mury's Avatar
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    Default I'm in

    Hey all,

    I've put this off too long. Basically I need a space to vent and post my goals, thoughts, epiphanies, and extremely long winded and boring analyses of common spots.

    I don't really expect anyone to read this, it's more for my benefit to help keep my thoughts organized and track the progression of my own thought process. A lot of the shit I post here will probably be way TLDR for most people.

    I read a book called "Treat your Poker like a Business" by Dusty Schmidt I think his name is, probably more well known as Leatherass, a pretty legendary grinder. In one of the first chapters he quotes the movie Ocean's Eleven where Danny tells Matt Damon's character, "You're either in or you're out. Right now." ... Or something along those lines anyways, and he says it should be that way with poker, too. Well, I've decided I'm in.

    I played poker semi-seriously about 2 years ago for a year, stopped about a year ago after getting super burnt out from playing too much etc. I made it up to 25NL, played roughly 200k hands to get there... lol. Something I learnt from that experience and that I'm going to try and implement into this time around is that my relationship to the game while moving up needs to be about learning, not hand volume or earning enough VPPs to hit gold star or having a good bb/100 win rate or dollar/hour rate... just about learning.

    I'm currently playing 5NL, using a somewhat aggressive BR management strategy for the micros,

    25BI for 5NL-25NL and 30 for 50NL, with a -5BI stop loss.

    It's my policy to not look at any results until the end of the week unless I legitimately fear hitting my stop loss, and I've been somewhat successful in this so far.
    Last edited by Mury; 05-05-2014 at 10:30 PM.
  2. #2
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    SB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
    BB: $4.83 (96.6 bb)
    UTG: $2.97 (59.4 bb)
    MP: $1.28 (25.6 bb) {61/1, 25% fold to CB, 131 hands, extremely loose/passive player}
    Hero (CO): $6.05 (121 bb)
    BTN: $6.36 (127.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with [RANGE]
    UTG folds, MP calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.17, 3 folds, MP calls $0.12

    Flop: ($0.41) 6 Q 3 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($0.41) 3 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero checks

    River: ($0.41) A (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $0.29

    So here's a hand. Our respective ranges before I bet here are something like this:


    Board: 3hQc6c3sAd

    Equity Win Tie
    Hero 74.86% 70.60% 4.27% { JJ-77, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, AKo, AJo-A9o, KJo-KTo, JTo }

    MP 25.14% 20.87% 4.27% { 77+, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, KJs-K4s, K2s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J4s+, J2s, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o-A4o, A2o, KJo-K4o, K2o, Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }


    I'm betting all my top pairs and FDs OTF. I figure our opponent is probably going to be calling any pair; I think it's pretty unlikely he has trips or a boat as he would've bet into me on the river most of the time. Therefore he's calling 32% of his range. So to maximally exploit this player, given he's never going to adjust and I'm reasonably sure of my assessment of his range, I should be value betting every hand that has 50% + equity vs his calling range, which is:


    MP { KK, JJ-77, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, K6s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 64s+, A5o-A4o, A2o, K6o, Q5o, 76o }


    Which means I'm betting:


    Hero { JJ-TT, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, AKo, AJo-A9o }


    But this leaves me wondering what should I be doing with the rest of my range, namely KTs-KJs, KTo-KJo, JTs, JTo, 77-99 (-1 combo of each of the suited combos as I'm betting the club combos OTF), 63 combos. I don't think I should be betting 77-99 here as that's really just turning those hands into a bluff... They have too much showdown value. But my K high also has a ton of showdown value too, as my opponent's range is super wide after the check...


    Board: 3hQc6c3sAd
    Equity Win Tie
    Hero 54.17% 43.10% 11.07% { KdJd, KhJh, KsJs }
    MP 45.83% 34.76% 11.07% { 77+, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, KJs-K4s, K2s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J4s+, J2s, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o-A4o, A2o, KJo-K4o, K2o, Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }


    And hell even my J high has a reasonable amount of showdown value...


    Board: 3hQc6c3sAd
    Equity Win Tie
    Hero 31.71% 25.46% 6.25% { JdTd, JhTh, JsTs }
    MP 68.29% 62.04% 6.25% { 77+, 55-44, 22, A5s-A4s, A2s, KJs-K4s, K2s, Q5s-Q4s, Q2s, J4s+, J2s, T4s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A5o-A4o, A2o, KJo-K4o, K2o, Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o }


    It's also worth noting that he's folding an exploitable amount, given his unexploitable folding frequency here would 59% and he's actually folding 68%. The fact that the hands I could bluff with have a ton of SDV coupled with the fact that he's folding an exploitable amount of the time has me wondering what I should do with my bluff possible hands.

    So we have two options of what to do with these hands, check or bet...



    Scenario one, we bet KTs-KJs, KTo-KJo, JTs, JTo as a bluff. This divides our range into:

    Check: 15% ... (0.15)(0.805)(0.41)-(0.15)(0.195)(0) ..... = 0.0495
    VBet: 48% ..... (0.48)(0.823)(0.7)-(0.48)(0.177)(0.29) .. = 0.2519
    Bluff: 37% ..... (0.37)(0.68)(0.41)-(0.37)(0.32)(0.29) .... = 0.0688

    Which gives an overall eV for this strategy of: 0.3702



    Now scenario two, we have KTs-KJs, KTo-KJo, JTs, JTo in our checking range. This divides our range into:

    Check: 52% ... (0.52)(0.56)(0.41) ........................... = 0.1194
    Vbet: 48% ..... (0.48)(0.85)(0.7)-(0.48)(0.15)(0.29) .. = 0.2647

    Which gives an overall eV for this strategy of: 0.3841


    So it appears, based on my analysis, that even though bluffing those hands would be profitable, checking them is slightly more profitable.


    There, enough ramble..
  3. #3
    Mury's Avatar
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    So sick and tired of making excuses to myself... "I'm tired, I worked all day" "I deserve a day off" "I don't have time" and the list goes on and on and on. If I seriously want to get better than I seriously need to put in the fucking time and get it done. Sure maybe I'm too tired to PLAY after working all day, but I can atleast study, go over HH's, read, etc. My days off from work need to be big grinding days, too. Get it going here, fuck.
  4. #4
    I tink I agree with the "you're either in or you're out" idea.

    Especially with the games these days. You can't half ass and expect to win that's for sure.

    Good luck!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Mury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I tink I agree with the "you're either in or you're out" idea.

    Especially with the games these days. You can't half ass and expect to win that's for sure.

    Good luck!
    Thanks griffey!
  6. #6
    Mury's Avatar
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    Just leaving this here so I don't lose it


    <spoonitnow>when you're at the tables and a hand comes up, you don't have the time to do a detailed analysis
    <Mury>yes
    <spoonitnow>when you showed the Ax hand on AK5, i immediately knew how the discussion was going to go
    <spoonitnow>except the runner flush was atypical and changed the river a little
    <spoonitnow>it would be different if the flop was something like A75 since he would have more hands that would call a single bet on the flop etc
    <spoonitnow>point is
    <spoonitnow>you want to get to the point of being able to immediately identify what's important in a hand and what the likely best play is
    <spoonitnow>and you can learn to do that better by first going into detail and learning what makes the hand work
    <spoonitnow>then by backing up and looking at the macro level instead and identifying patterns
    <Mury>aaaaaaah
    <spoonitnow>you have to know the micro to see how it works before you can back up and look at the macro though

    <spoonitnow>if you wanted to break this down, you'd start by looking at what you think his range looks like here and how you think he's play against a bet or a check
    <spoonitnow>so then you back up a step and you look at what your range would be and try to figure out how to best play your range based on what you just looked at for how villain plays
    <spoonitnow>now you can back up another step and think about what would change for both you and villain if the flop was slightly different like if it was K94 with a flush draw instead or maybe KQ4r instead
    <Mury>cool, and this leads to us being able to make better decisions in shorter amounts of times because we've seen this kind of situation before, identified the pattern, and know what the best play is likely to be, like in the K94r vs the tight player our best play on this kind of dry board (or a board like A73r, Q82r) is likely to be to cbet a wide range
    <spoonitnow>yeah
    <spoonitnow>you can also change what the opponent's like on that flop and then work through different opponent types
    <Mury>neat
    <spoonitnow>basically instead of looking at a hand like this static object, you look at it like it has moving parts
    Last edited by Mury; 05-18-2014 at 12:39 AM.
  7. #7
    Mury's Avatar
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    its hard to win money when you suck at poker and run bad too.

    I don't know, I usually don't like to say I'm running bad because it feels like a cruch... but I think I am.

    Anyways, played 3.5k hands yesterday, about 500 at 10NL down $3 there and was up about 2 stacks at 5NL for the day until after I played 10NL I played like shit and ran like shit and lost 4 stacks at 5NL.

    Also been failing at not looking at results. Atleast I'm not looking at results during the session though. Not even table specific ones! Yay.

    Have been spending a bit of time with spoon in the IRC. It's amazing the depth he's able to go into a hand. Every time I get discouraged I just remind myself how little I understand this game and how much farther there is to go... If my graph is trending upwards now just imagine how it could go once I don't suck complete ass anymore. Even if I just sucked partial ass I would move up a lot quicker.
  8. #8
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    Regarding the quotes of me above from the chat logs, I think that this process will naturally take you into game theory once you get familiar enough with it and start seeing patterns.

    Best of luck.
  9. #9
    Mury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    Regarding the quotes of me above from the chat logs, I think that this process will naturally take you into game theory once you get familiar enough with it and start seeing patterns.

    Best of luck.
    Thanks Spoon!

    Okay, I've decided to go in-depth into C-betting spots. I'm going to post all of my analysis here (goal: 20 hands in the farthest depth that I know how) because it'll just help keep me organized and serve as an archive of sorts for myself.

    Hopefully I'll be able to go back and actually see improvement in my thought process as I go.

    I'll start by breaking down our opponent's range, then I'll look at possible scenarios to the turn, then I'll figure out the overall eV for cbetting flop in this spot, then I'll break down our range and look at possible scenarios to the turn, then I'll try and do that thing in spoon's quote where I look for patterns. This should make for some massive walls of text. Yay.

    Here we gooooooooooo...............

    I'm going to underline any questions I want to bring up in the IRC.



    Hand 1

    Hero (BTN): $5 (100 bb)
    SB: $4.64 (92.8 bb)
    BB: $14.43 (288.6 bb)
    UTG: $5.31 (106.2 bb) {56/2, fold to CB 3/9, 41 hands}
    MP: $4.93 (98.6 bb)
    CO: $5 (100 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with K K
    UTG calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.17, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.12

    Flop: ($0.41) T 8 4 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero (bets some amount, or checks)

    Seems like a pretty mundane spot. Loose/passive player. Our general strategy is going to be to bet/bet/bet our strong hands until we're raised at which point we fold all but the strongest. But lets go a bit deeper, maybe we'll find something for me to learn in here.



    Opponent's range
    Board: Th4h8c
    Equity Win Tie
    Hero 76.66% 76.53% 0.12% { KhKc }
    UTG 23.34% 23.22% 0.12% { KK-22, AKs, ATs, A8s, A4s, K2s+, Q8s+, Q4s, J7s+, J4s, T4s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, AhQh, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Qh7h, Ah6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, Ah5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, 9h5h, Ah3h, Qh3h, Jh3h, Ah2h, Qh2h, Jh2h, AKo, ATo, A8o, A4o, KTo+, K8o, K4o, Q8o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }

    So given what we know about our opponent, we can reasonably assume he's going to be continuing with any piece (above range). This includes all FDs, OESDs, GTSDs, and pairs+. We can bet our particular hand here for value against this range, and we can probably bet it pretty big, like close to pot, say $0.35. At this point there are three things our opponent can do: call, raise, or fold. I think it's extremely unlikely our opponent is raising any hand here so we can eliminate that option leaving us with calling or folding.

    Based on our analysis of his range, when we bet...

    - Our opponent started with 616 combos
    - Our opponent is calling 391 of these (63%)
    - Our opponent is folding 225 of these (37%)
    - Our opponent is raising a negligible amount of these (0%)



    Scenarios to the turn
    There are 47 cards left in the deck.

    A. 9 hearts (19%)
    B. 1 heart that pairs the board (2%)
    C. 8 cards that pair the board and aren't hearts (17%)
    D. 3 aces that aren't hearts (7%)
    E. 9 cards that effect possible straights+improve opponent's range in other significant ways (pair+)(Q,J,9) (19%)
    F. 9 cards that effect possible straights (19%)
    G. 2 kings (4%)
    H. 6 cards that aren't significant at all (2,3) (13%)

    Yikes. Might be worth noting that this is a wet board, which is why a large majority of the cards actually do something mildly interesting.

    A. While these cards improve the strength of our opponent's calling range on the turn, flush draws are only like 1/4 of his calling range on the flop. We also hold the Kh, giving us the second NFD. He probably calls these turns with enough turned top pair, Tx, and OESDs to make it a profitable bet OTT. As for sizing, perhaps we want to go a bit smaller on hearts?

    B. Probably doesn't need its own category, we're obviously betting the 8h for the reasons stated above.

    C. Tx is probably the worst 3 cards in the deck for us because he's going to be calling the flop with a lot of those hands. However he's going to have enough SD's, FD's and single pair hands to bet again for value.

    D. Kind of a tough card for us but again probably a bet because he's going to have tons of draws etc. and pairs that won't fold and we have position on the river so we can just check back the majority of rivers.

    E. Obvious bet. These cards give him pairs and straights, but way more pairs than straights and these cards complete relatively few draws.

    F. Obvious bet. These cards give him more straights than pairs, but still not enough to not bet as he's got all his other shit still too.

    G. Bet.

    H. Bet.


    Our range
    So our ISOing range is probably something like:

    { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KJo+ }

    Going back to our general strategy, our opponent is loose/passive in general so we don't want to be betting a lot of bluffs vs him.

    So we're obviously betting our TP+ for value as we've already established his calling range is wide on this we board. Obviously want to check back our air and hope to pick up equity OTT and perhaps bet that. This leaves 77, 99, and our flush draws to decide what to do with. AhKh has 62% here, and QhJh has 61%, so both ends of the range of our FD's have the equity to have a massively +eV bet. 77 is best checking back as we don't really want to turn that hand into a bluff and we aren't likely to face pressure from our opponent if he doesn't have something big. 99 has 58% here vs. his calling range but there are a ton of turn cards that suck for that hand so it might be best to keep the pot small with 99 as it's a relatively weak hand here?

    So...

    BET: 88, TT+, JTs+, ATo, all broadway FDs
    CHECK: 77, 99, AJo+, KJo-KQo, all suited non-heart broadways



    Scenarios for our range to the turn
    We'll break this into two parts, our betting range and our checking range.

    BETTING RANGE
    88, TT+, JTs+, ATo, all broadway FDs

    Honestly we're probably just going to keep betting most of our range here on most turn cards. The only exceptions are probably overcard hearts for our top pairs that don't give us two pair. Our FDs likely have enough FE on almost every turn card to barrel save maybe 2, 3. But yeah the rest we bet for value.

    CHECKING RANGE
    77, 99, AJo+, KJo-KQo, all suited non-heart broadways

    This is a bit more complicated as we're possibly facing a bet here, but we're only going to deal with situations where we have the opportunity to make a delayed C-bet.

    Obviously betting turned sets, turned top pairs. It's probably best to check back turned OESDs, GTSDs, and FDs?
    Last edited by Mury; 05-27-2014 at 12:26 AM.
  10. #10
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    Hand 2
    Hero (BB): $5 (100 bb)
    MP: $11.48 (229.6 bb)
    CO: $5.79 (115.8 bb)
    BTN: $3.02 (60.4 bb)
    SB: $3.10 (62 bb) {56/13, 5/9 fold to CB, 4/9 donk bet, 34 hands, also I have a note that he 3bet 88 pre once and stacked off with the dummy end of a straight}

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J 9
    3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $0.17, SB calls $0.12

    Flop: ($0.34) 9 2 J (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets or checks

    Another generally loose/passive player, however this guy is more aggressive on the flop it seems. Given we're trying to get him to put in money vs. our strong ranges and not put in money vs. our weak ranges, we should probably be betting a strong range in most situations vs. this player.



    Opponent's range breakdown
    He's probably limp/calling something like

    66-22,A7s-A2s,K9s-K2s,Q9s-Q2s,J9s-J2s,T4s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,65s,54s,ATo-A2o,KTo-K3o,QTo-Q5o,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o

    which is 614 combos, 511 after adjusting for blockers in my hand and OTF.

    So his donk bet stat comes into play here. It's hard to say what kinds of hands he's going to donk bet. I'm going to reasonably assume it'll be TP+, so once he checks we have to take two pairs, sets, and top pair out of his range, leaving him with 445 combos. TONS of this is probably going to be folding, especially on this relatively dry board.

    We'll assume he c/c's all his pairs and straight draws, giving him a continuing range of 132 combos:

    66-33,A2s,K2s,Q2s,J9s,T8s-T7s,96s+,87s,A2o,KTo,QTo,T8o-T7o,97o+,87o

    So based on our analysis of his range, he's got a super weak continuing range and we have about 70% fold equity here. About the only thing I'd expect him to raise ever here is 22, which we're just going to take out of his range because I think he's more likely to donk it.



    Turn cards
    There's a lot of insignificant turn cards here.

    1. (34%) (16) K, Q, 8, 7 - completes OESDs, gives him some TP and some mid pair.
    2. (15%) (7) J, 9, 2 - pairs the board, significant because 9 and 2 will give him a lot of trips, however when a 9 comes off we fill up and it's unlikely he has one at that point due to combinatorics.
    3. (8.5%) (4) T - will give him a few straights, more mid pairs.
    4. (8.5%) (4) A - significant as a scare card, possibly chasing away action when we bet.
    5. (34%) (16) 3, 4, 5, 6 - mostly insigificant as they're unlikely to improve his hand. Turns some sets, that's about it.

    Group one: B/F, he'll probably check raise his straights, or wait till the river to do so, but he'll have enough pairs and draws to bet
    Group two: B/R, B/C, getting it in on a J or 9 turn for obvious reasons, 2 is a little more ambiguous though and tbh might just be a B/F because is he really going to C/R a turned 2 without trips?
    Group three: B/F, assuming he's only going to C/R straights
    Group four: C or B/C, checking might be better as the A might scare away a lot of our action from smaller pairs etc..
    Group five: B/C I dunno if we assume he's only raising a set on the turn it's a B/F I guess.



    Breakdown of our range
    So I've got something like this for pre:

    66+,A5s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+ ,J9o+

    Given that, according to our analysis of his range, we have 70% fold equity here, I think betting our air is going to be good here. We'll have tons of options to barrel OTT and will pick up equity lots of the time OTT. And given that his continuing range is so weak we can safely bet our top pairs+. So our range looks like:

    BET: 99, JJ, J9-JT, QT-QJ, KT-KQ, AT-AK, A5s-A8s, A7o-A8o, 87s

    CHECK: 66-88, TT, 98s, T9s, Q9, K9, A9



    Turn cards and our range
    BETTING RANGE:
    Group 1: Probably checking back our 2nd pairs, betting two pairs, barreling our air and any picked up equity a significant portion of the time.
    Group 2: Don't want to barrel air on pairing boards as people don't often like to fold those spots, but obviously value betting the value part of our range.
    Group 3: Betting the value, don't really like barreling our air as the T is a good card for his range.
    Group 4: Barrel air, check back value hands.
    Group 5: Bet value, check back air and hope to pick up equity. These cards don't garner us a lot of fold equity.

    CHECKING RANGE:
    Group 1: Just checking back anything that doesn't improve us. If we make two pair then bet it.
    Group 2: Checking back anything that isn't trips.
    Group 3: Checking back anything that doesn't improve us.
    Group 4: Probably bet all our air, check back our pairs. A gives us a good deal of fold equity.
    Group 5: Checking back anything that doesn't improve us.
    Last edited by Mury; 05-27-2014 at 12:25 AM.
  11. #11
    This is an easy value bet. No analysis would result in me checking as my default here unless SB is a HUGE monkey spazz facing flop checks, and starts overbetting turns and over bet jamming rivers.

    Barring that situation, yes bet.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  12. #12
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    Hand 3
    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05, $0.01 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $5.25 (105 bb)
    BB: $5.21 (104.2 bb) {22/16, 75% fold to CB, 18% donk, 5% 3b, 0% raise CB, fold to steal in BB 72%, steal 25%, 400 hands. It's worth noting he's probably not positionally aware as his VPIP from EP, CO, and BU are all the same (24%)}
    UTG: $14.14 (282.8 bb)
    MP: $9.74 (194.8 bb)
    CO: $9.93 (198.6 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $13.16 (263.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
    3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, SB folds, BB calls $0.10

    Flop: ($0.38) A 7 T (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets or checks

    Kind of a weakish reg type of player, mostly seems to be playing an ABC fit-or-fold strategy. Relatively passive preflop.

    I think when we do bet here it should be on the smaller side, closer to like 60% pot just because it's a pretty dry board and this is the type of board I would expect to get a lot of folds from this type of player on.

    Opponent's range breakdown
    I think he's got something like this for calling pre:

    JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-A2o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

    Obviously he's going to C/C all his top pairs. As for his stronger hands like two pair and sets, this is obviously an assumption laden approximation but we'll say for simplicity's sake he donks 66% of his sets, check raises 33% of his sets, and donks 22% of his two pairs, and C/Cs the rest. So his checking range now looks like, or thereabouts:

    JJ,99-88,66-22,TdTh,7h7c,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,A6s-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AdTd,Ad7d,AQo-AJo,A9o-A8o,A6o-A2o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,AdTh,AdTs,AsTh,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ad 7h,Ad7c,As7d,As7h,As7c,Ac7d (255 combos)

    So we assumed he's playing a fit or fold strategy, which means he's pretty likely to just fold out his second pairs, gutters, and complete air, giving him a continuing range of:

    TdTh,7h7c,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,A6s-A2s,98s,AdTd,Ad7d,AQo-AJo,A9o-A8o,A6o-A2o,AdTh,AdTs,AsTh,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ad7h,Ad7c,As7d,A s7h,As7c,Ac7d (125 combos)

    Which means we have 49% fold equity.

    He's C/Ring 1.6% of his range.



    Turn cards

    1. (8.5%) (4) J - gives us the nuts
    2. (12.5%) (6) K, Q - gives us 2nd pair
    3. (19%) (9) A, T, 7 - pairs the board
    4. (60%) (28) 9, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 - don't really do anything interesting

    Group 1: Obviously wanting to barrel these, he's not going to fold his top pair a lot to another barrel
    Group 2: Given his continuing range, we want to check these and hope for a cheap showdown
    Group 3: Never really good cards to barrel with air, especially not the A in this case as it'll give him trips a ton of the time.
    Group 4: Probably not great cards to barrel as they don't change much and aren't perceived as scare cards etc. etc.






    ~~~~~~will finish later
  13. #13
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    Looking into 3bets OOP now for a while.

    MP: $11.89 (237.8 bb)
    CO: $13.05 (261 bb)
    BTN: $21.87 (437.4 bb)
    Hero (SB): $12.50 (250 bb)
    BB: $13.05 (261 bb)
    UTG: $12.60 (252 bb) {33/26, positionally aware, 6/12 fold to 3b, 0 4b, 54% CB, 38% fold to CB, 237 hands}

    Preflop: Hero is SB with RANGE
    UTG raises to $0.15, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60

    He probably percieves me as something like 17/15, 5-6% 3b or so.

    Opponent's range
    MKay. UTG's probably got something like

    66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+

    to start out, then continuing with something like

    66+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo+, KQo

    We can safely assume that he 4b/GII with QQ+ (7%), and that he's calling like

    JJ-66, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo+, KQo (42%)

    and folding the rest (51%).

    Hero's range
    So how should we be playing our range? We'll start by constructing a value range. QQ+ AK all for sure have the equity vs. his continuing range to raise for value. JJ has about 58% so we can comfortably 3bet that. We do need to account for the fact that we're OOP when called. 3-betting more marginal hands like AQs (50.20%) and TT (54%) will probably leave us in tough spots postflop.
    Value 3-bet: JJ+, AK

    Now we have to decide what hands we want to call. Our opponent's postflop tendencies will be a factor here. It's also worth noting that the BB is an ABC player, unlikely to get out of line very often. When calling here I think we need to be very aware that we'll be OOP for the entire hand, which means we should probably be calling less than we would be if we had the BU here. I think hands like suited broadways are good to call, as well as like ATo-AQo, KQo is probably okay. Basically any hands that are going to dominate a lot of his range. As far as PP's go I think like 88-TT is good?
    Call: A8s-AQs, ATo-AQo, KQo, KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs, 88-TT

    So now to figure out how many hands and how much we want to 3bet, we look directly below our calling range. Since we decided he's calling MORE than he should be, we should be bluffing LESS. Never bluffing would be max EV, but given he's likely to adjust to us only 3-betting for value, I think we should retain some bluffs. JJ+ AK is 40 combos. Our unexploitable 3betting range would be 1/3 value, 2/3 bluff, so we would have 80 combos of bluffs. I think we should be bluffing somewhere in the 20-40 combo range here. Looking right below our calling range we find a lot of suited broadway gappers, some suited kings, worse suited aces, etc.
    3-Bet bluff: K9s-KTs, Q9s-QTs, J9s, A6s-A7s

    Or something like that.
    Last edited by Mury; 05-28-2014 at 08:50 PM.
  14. #14
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    May:





    Last edited by Mury; 06-03-2014 at 01:55 PM.
  15. #15
    Holy shit your UTG range is tight. I assume this is for 6-max yeah?

    You can widen your range UTG & MP, prob widen slightly from CO as well.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  16. #16
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    Yeah sorry this is for 6 max. I'll definately look into that, maybe improve that winrate a bit heh
  17. #17
    Forgot to say you're playing way too many hands from the SB as well.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  18. #18
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    In depth on some hands after an IRC session with spoon. He went through a bunch of hands where I folded the river and provided general comments, so now I'm going to go in depth in those hands and unfuck my shit.


    BB: $5 (100 bb)
    UTG: $5.93 (118.6 bb) {38/32, ?? fold to 3b, ?? fold to CB, 39 hands}
    MP: $8.33 (166.6 bb)
    CO: $5.23 (104.6 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $5.30 (106 bb)
    SB: $5.55 (111 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with J A
    UTG raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.30

    Flop: ($0.97) 2 8 4 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

    Turn: ($2.17) 2 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero checks

    River: ($2.17) 9 (2 players)
    UTG bets $1.04, Hero folds

    General comments:
    Probably shouldn't be bluffing a virtual unknown. We don't know anything about how much he folds to 3b or CB for that matter, so we should probably just wait till we have more information on our opponent here before we add bluffs to our 3b range.

    Opponent range breakdown:
    It's hard to put him on an accurate continuing range pre here as we know so little about him. I think something like this is reasonable and I think erring on the side of him being tighter to 3b is more likely to reduce our risk later in the hand; atleast until we have more information on him:

    JJ-77, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ (54 combo)

    Again to the flop it's hard to put him on anything unreasonable for continue to CB, one plus side is that we block the NFD. Lets say he continues with something like:

    JJ-77, KhQh (25 combo)

    Obviously the rest of the hand is pretty standard considering his continuing range from pre and OTF, I don't think we can really make an A-high hero call OTR until we know he's continuing with more draws from pre and the flop.

    We have 53% fold equity on the flop based on our breakdown. If we plan on not putting in any more money when called, the bet only has to work 38% of the time to be profitable.

    Our range:
    Based on our general comments/thoughts, my 3betting range here should be value only, until we have more information. So like QQ+, AK. This will minimize our risk in unknown territory vs. this player. OTF with this range we can bet QQ+, AhKh expecting to make a profit.
  19. #19
    Mury's Avatar
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    Haven't been playing enough. Haven't been studying enough. Basically been slacking off. My city gets really nice during the summer, and it's on the shores of an excellent lake. Hard to not go outside to the beach or whatever with friends.

    Read an article recently about how we all have bad days and good days (with respect to progress towards our goals), and how a lot of people (myself included) are in a pattern of a few really really good days or weeks of really solid work followed by 2-3x that period in days or weeks of just getting basically nothing done. The solution it offered is to set a lower bound on any given day or week and how "bad" it can get, so I'm going to try this out, and start small so I don't burn myself out. The lower bound for my poker goals on any given day is 1 hour of quality HH review/study time.

    Obviously more study+play is ideal.
    Last edited by Mury; 06-27-2014 at 04:41 PM.
  20. #20
    link to article?
  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    link to article?
    http://tynan.com/lower
  22. #22
    That article reminds me of the inchworm technique mentioned in the mental game of poker. Making your "worst" a little better, while also improving your best, makes progress.

    http://uk.pokernews.com/poker-strate...hworm-7460.htm
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  23. #23
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    This is me trying to figure out my unexploitable strategy in this particular spot. Lol am I even close?


    Hero (BB): $13.65 (273 bb)
    BTN: $4.40 (88 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
    BTN raises to $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN raises to $1.10, Hero raises to $4.40, BTN calls $3.30 and is all-in

    Based on opp's tendencies I've broken down his range like so:

    INITIAL 4B: 48 TT+,AJs+,AQo+
    CALL 5B: 48 TT+,AJs+,AQo+



    Alpha value from opp's perspective: 0.377

    So opp's unexploitable calling freq is .623, and his unexploitable calling range will be something like:

    30 JJ+,AKs,AKo

    So...



    H unexploitable value range:

    8 KK+

    H calling range:

    22 QQ, AK

    H unexploitable bluffing frequency:

    4/(4+4+1.45)=0.42

    Then 0.58x=8, x=14, therefore we have 6 combos of bluffs in this spot to be unexploitable and we pick the hands just below our calling
    range for that:

    6 AQs,AdQc,AdQs




    Okay so we now know what our unexploitable strategy looks like for this spot (??), and we can figure out how we
    want to deviate from this to exploit our opponent. We've already determined from our range breakdown of opp that
    he's almost never folding, and I don't think this opp is likely to adjust here, so I don't think we should ever
    be bluffing. So we eliminate our bluffing range, but we can widen our value range. We should go with anything with
    50%+ vs. his calling range because this is the last bet to be put in.

    34 QQ+,AKs,AKo
    Last edited by Mury; 07-07-2014 at 02:11 PM.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Mury View Post
    4/(4+4+1.45)=0.42
    Shouldn't this be 4/(4+4+0.8) ?

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