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Seems like an easy fold?

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  1. #1

    Default Seems like an easy fold?

    UTG is 48/27, agg 3.6, flop bet 43%, donk bet 8% over 137 hands
    MP1 is 50/0 over 10 hands
    MP2 is 17/4, agg is 1.0, fold to donk bet is 50% and fold to CB is 50% over 295 hands. I've not seem him get out of line much at all.

    My main questions is would anyone have called the flop?

    I think I should have raised preflop a hell of a lot more to knock out the crap. In my defence I've noticed most people will fold to a bet of this size and frankly I didn't want them all to fold. The problem being that once UTG called it gave the others much better odds to come along for the ride of course.

    Once it came down like it did coupled with the action before me I'm personally seeing no other option but fold really.

    Suggestions?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    UTG ($16.08)
    MP1 ($2.13)
    MP2 ($10)
    Hero (CO) ($10.57)
    Button ($13.54)
    SB ($9.30)
    BB ($5.38)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
    UTG calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40, MP2 calls $0.40

    Flop: ($2.15) J, 7, J (4 players)
    UTG bets $1.20, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.20, Hero folds
  2. #2
    rpm's Avatar
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    definitely raise more pre. at least 3x +1 for each limper. if not 4x+1 per limper. on the flop i don't really know what to do. i think i'm calling to re-evaluate turn. though that may be spewy. i think they can both still have hands like 22-88 in their ranges, as well as gutters like T9,T8,98. and hands like 87s,97s,76s,A7s
  3. #3
    I think not wanting them to fold out their crap is a mistake.
    Taking this view.. Why not limp in so we keep all the crap in ?

    If you raise a decent amount like RPM rigidly dictates , you may
    Take the pot down. That's no big deal. 4.5 bb is an ok win rate.

    The 50/0 and the 48/27 like to see flops. Charge them
    A price to see the flop .

    I think you know all this , that's why your question
    Is a post flop one. I've got to dismantle a shed now .
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by celtic123 View Post
    I think not wanting them to fold out their crap is a mistake.
    Taking this view.. Why not limp in so we keep all the crap in ?
    I didn't want them all to fold.

    Aces are nice but in a 5 way pot your odds of winning go down rather rapidly.
    Quote Originally Posted by celtic123
    If you raise a decent amount like RPM rigidly dictates , you may
    Take the pot down. That's no big deal. 4.5 bb is an ok win rate.

    The 50/0 and the 48/27 like to see flops. Charge them
    A price to see the flop .

    I think you know all this , that's why your question
    Is a post flop one. I've got to dismantle a shed now .
    Yeah I do know it. As mentioned I should have raised a hell of a lot more preflop. If that meant I just took the limpers money right there then so be it. Should not have tried to entice anyone in. Lesson learned on that score.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    definitely raise more pre. at least 3x +1 for each limper. if not 4x+1 per limper.
    I had actually read the raise 3-4x +1 per limper idea but completely forgot about it. So thanks for reminding me.
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm
    on the flop i don't really know what to do. i think i'm calling to re-evaluate turn. though that may be spewy. i think they can both still have hands like 22-88 in their ranges, as well as gutters like T9,T8,98. and hands like 87s,97s,76s,A7s
    If it had only been UTG betting with no caller I would have been inclined to call. With MP2 calling as well it just seemed too likely one or the other had a J.

    Maybe I was too timid.
  6. #6
    Shotglass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PKKFW View Post
    Maybe I was too timid.
    Prolly this.

    Two jacks on board instead of just one reduces the probability that someone else has a J by 33.33% (probably less than that vs. two opponents). It may be mathematically a -EV move to continue with AA in this situation (I really haven't run the numbers) but I'll take that extra 33.33% and at least see the turn.

    Quote Originally Posted by givememyleg View Post
    i'll never understand how anyone can go through life being sober.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Shotglass View Post
    Prolly this.

    Two jacks on board instead of just one reduces the probability that someone else has a J by 33.33% (probably less than that vs. two opponents). It may be mathematically a -EV move to continue with AA in this situation (I really haven't run the numbers) but I'll take that extra 33.33% and at least see the turn.
    Yeah, hadn't really considered this point. Makes it seem more likely that either of them could have been limp/calling preflop with small pairs and then taking the chance no one had a jack or over pair.

    For the record, the turn came another Jack and UTG bet 1/2 pot and MP2 folded. Hindsight is a beautiful thing but that 1/2 psb had me thinking he was desperate for a call. I'll never know though.

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