Set vs Aggression from Whale

[Vinland]

Villain is an absolute whale. If I had to guess, hes running 85/30. Very rarely folds preflop, and a mix of open raises and open limps. I have not seen villain 3bet preflop. Probably played 150 hands with him. I've been pretty card dead so I havent been able to play all that much.
Calls down light, in a previous hand he won my stack calling my 4 bet pre with 66, shoving an undercard flop and hit his set on the river vs my AA.
In general, he calls down with med/junk/draws, bets with good hands, and raises with strong hands, but I dont know what he thinks strong hands are. Thats where I am on this hand. This player is terrible, but shows up with the goods usually. Hes running well and I'm wondering if I'm seeing monsters under the bed in this hand. I got the converter to work (It usually doesnt)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com


BB ($6.31)
UTG ($7.48)
MP ($10.47)
Hero (CO) ($5.45)
Button ($5.28)
SB ($3.70)


Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9
UTG calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.10


Flop: ($0.37) J, 9, Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.30, UTG calls $0.30


Turn: ($0.97) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.93, UTG raises to $1.95, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?



The fact villain is raising usually means he has a pretty strong hand. I usually see him call down with TP or MP hands and hes raised with strong hands like flushes and straights, sets etc. I havent seen him raise with TP and flush draws. That doesnt mean he wont, I just havent seen him.

I ran this into pokerstove giving him a tight range for raising of: AA,QQ-JJ,AQs-AJs,A9s,KTs,AQo-AJo,A9o,KTo and on the turn its about 50/50, and thats without putting hands like TP with a FD or straight draw. That would make me a favorite. This is the type of player everyone dreams of playing and when he raises I'm certain I'm behind.

[OngBonga]

This is a fistpump jam. Turn changes absolutely nothing unless he has exactly AA. If we assume he's playing straight up, he calls flop because it's ok and then and he hits this turn, then he very very very likely has two pair like AJ and he's crushed to four outs.

You know he's terrible. He can have 89ss here no problem. Sure there are universes where he has JJ/QQ/KT and even AA but he can so easily have AQ AJ A9 J9 QTss even maybe as weak as AT, and given he didn't raise the flop these holdings are way more likely than hands that outflopped us. He didn't 3bet pre so surely he doesn't have AA, if he does well done to him.

If he has the goods just take it on the chin, it sucks when we finally get a monster vs the table fish and he has better but sometimes poker is cruel. But most definitely do not fold sets HU against idiots unless there's 4-to-straight or flush.

[OngBonga]

Like, if the turn was a king, then this is totally different. We'd be crazy betting and should just check/call, hoping to fill up. We can still check/call river to pick off bluffs but if he overbet jams needing a naked T to beat us then we can fold a set. But not here. He needs to be at the top of his range to beat a set. You have to assume he's overplaying 2 pair and maybe even top pair hands.

I don't see any reason to call this turn bet. Just jam. There are plenty of action killer rivers, he's committed with any showdown hand, ok we gets his bluffs to fold but is he really jamming river anyway after we call turn? Maybe but we don't always have to target bluffs, we can target the value part of their range too, and it looks like he's value betting in his mind, or at worst semi bluffing a combo draw that he's never folding on turn. This turn seemed to improve him, which is great news for us unless he has AA.

Please tell me you didn't fold this.

[Vinland]

Ok,
I didn’t fold. I jammed. But I jammed more bc of tilt. I felt he had KT, but convinced myself he could have 2 pair hands that would make jamming +Ev. And I was right. He flopped the straight.
I was tilting by then bc it was the best table I have seen since Black Friday lol. There was an earlier whale who was just as bad that I got to play 3 hands against and won two med pots and he won one bigger one where I chanced an oesd but probably should have quit on the turn bc my cards probably didn’t have any value as TP outs. Everyone was tripping over each other to iso the first whale and time and time again he would out flop and get called down. He walked away with 6 BI’s while I folded away waiting for something to isolate with
he left and then this villain joined and was similar. I ended up losing two stacks to him.
very tilting. I quit shortly after. He probably gave the money back to everyone else.
I’ve been away for a while and forgot how gross the game can be at times.
I tried super hard to concentrate and pick out betting tendencies etc to profit on these guys but I couldn’t win a pot of worth

[OngBonga]

I mean I disregarded the fact we hard block any 9x hands so yeah he's unlikely to have J9 89s A9 etc but there are still a lot more 2 pair, top pair and combo draws in his range than sets and straights. For him to be beating us he either flatted AA pre or flatted a set or straight on the flop. I think we can disregard JJ/QQ for that reason given this is a scary flop for a set.

KT can absolutely slow play this for one street, so I'm not taking that out of his range, and he has all combos. That's a lot of combos. But no way am I folding a set against a donkey because he might have flopped the nuts. If we're not stacking this against him we might as well just give up poker because we're going to need the nuts way too often if we want to make money.

[OngBonga]

Yeah it's easy when we see his hand to see the warning signs but look, even against KT we're not dead, we still have something like 16% equity. That helps soften the blow from a long term pov.

You did the right thing leaving if it affected you. I tend to stick around if I think I have a skill advantage, but I am prone to tilt and sometimes it's a mistake to stay. If I can remain calm, and sometimes I do, I usually win my money back so long as they don't run.

This was unavoidable. Jamming turn is surely +ev against this guy. No way does he only have KT here.