|
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
it's +EV if SB comes along (which I guess does look likely). if SB folds then we are looking at $17 to win $26 with 32% chance to hit our 8 outs by the river. 68% of the time we lose $17 (68 x -17 = -$1156) and 32% of the time we win $26 (32 x 26 = +$832) so it's clearly -EV. correct me if i made a mistake there.
We're only looking at $12.90, not $17.
.68 * -12.90 = -8.772
.32 * 26 = 8.32
EV = -.452
So slightly -EV
If SB comes along (all-in), then it's costing us $16.75 to win $26 +12.75 (SB's remaining stack) = 38.75
.68 * 16.75 = -11.39
.32 * 38.75 = 12.4
EV = 1.01
Ok I thought it would be better than that. ...that's fairly marginal value.
Let's say the SB folds x% of the time.
Then we have
(x * -.452) + ((1-x) * 1.01) = 0
being our break even point.
Doing some mathematical wizardry, I come up with x=69%.
So we're breaking even with the SB coming along for the ride 31% of the time. The more he's coming in, the better our EV is.
Given all that I'd say this is fairly close to neutral EV, erring slightly on the side of +EV, but of course variable on SB's actions. I guess I couldn't really fault hero for going either way, especially in the heat of the moment...
|