When your BR outpaces your skill

[Ragnar4]

Coming off of a tourney win last night, I'm sitting at a bankroll capable of handling 25nl for a short period of time.

That having been said, my bankroll far exceeds my skill level, One of the things that Sykedup was saying last night was: I should pick one thing and stick with it, I really want to play NLHE RNG games.

What kind of goal should I set for myself in order to accept moving up and taking a shot at the 25nl? Should I be willing to jump into 25 nl and mix it up for like 4 BI's before falling off? I'm willing to author that I've been suffering negative varaince, but I've also been making some pretty bad plays.

Also, peeling from my roll doesn't work. I just don't need the money, I'd only spend it on hookers and blow. I'd rather peel money for EXPENSIVE hookers and blow way down the road.
Any hints/tips?

Also, it should be noted, that at the time of posting my BR at 302, I'd been in a steady decline over the last... what... 6 months, and my BR was at like 20 bucks before my 500 dollar score last night. I really don't want to do that again.

[spoonitnow]

First congrats on the big score.

Second, I'd suggest keeping your bankroll intact as it is now and look for a certain win-rate over a certain number of hands in your current level before moving up.

I don't know what kind of multi-tabling you do or history you have but if you did 50k at 3 ptbb/100 at your current level, you'd most certainly be ready for the next level up.

The topic of bankroll size vs skill comes up from time to time, and this is a much smaller "issue" than most people seem to think it is. Ideal bankroll management guidelines are based off of two things: standard deviation and win-rate. Your SD will mostly be a function of style plus some variance, but your win-rate is mostly a function of whether or not you're playing well.

Anyhow, the point is that if you get a solid win-rate going over a good sample at your current stakes, then go ahead and move up. That should be your goal imo.

Good luck.

[Deuce Blue]

Coming off of a tourney win last night, I'm sitting at a bankroll capable of handling 25nl for a short period of time.

Also, it should be noted, that at the time of posting my BR at 302

Dude, you are NOT rolled for 25NL. Not even close. You need AT LEAST $750 to give 25NL a try. Might want to read some sticy's on BR managment.

[ATOTHEC101]

i think he means it was 302 before his 500 buck score last nite? so his roll would be 800ish...

[Ragnar4]

huh. I thought you wanted 20 BI's to play at a level... what was I missing.

edit -- Reading Rilla's Bankroll management thread suggests having between 15-30 BI's for a level. I'm at 20 (20 * 25 =500) BI's why am I not rolled to play 25nl?

Should you always shoot for the top end before moving up to handle the impact of there being a bit more skill at the next level?

[d0zer]

It really depends how comfortable you are with cash games. If you've never grinded tens of thousands of hands showing profit, then it's probably a good idea to start at 10NL until you start showing consistent profit and are comfortable with your game.

I think $500 is a fine BR for 25NL. It was for me anyway. I rarely had more than a 2BI swing either way in a session. Hit a cooler, move down etc. Just don't play with scared monies as I'm sure you know...

[Ragnar4]

lol.. Actually I didn't get scared with my money until I was at like 25 bucks.

I'm more scared now having 500 than I ever was when I was swinging around 50 bucks like a yo yo.

[Stacks]

I wouldn't suggest you start grinding 25nl just yet. I came off beating 10nl for 25kish hands for 4ptbb/100 and took shows at 25nl with $510 BR and just busted down quickly. Tried against at $580 and the same thing happened. I then just continued to grind 10nl till $750 then moved up.

I'm pretty sure those two shots set me up to become a BR nit for the rest of my poker career. It just feels so much better moving up knowing you have buyins you can afford to lose before dropping down.

I agree with spoon in saying you need to make sure you are a winning cash game player at 10nl before you jump up to 25nl with a very vulnerable roll. So put in some 10nl hands and see if you winrate dictates you move up or not.

[spoonitnow]

The bankroll guidelines I recommend for microstakes players are as follows:

Start with about 20 buyins at 2nl or 5nl. This means either $40 or $100. Now, don't put anymore money into your poker account ever. Instead, grind through the limits and get good at poker. Then, the higher you get, take a slightly higher bankroll requirement than the stakes previous so that you better protect your poker bankroll.

When you have $100, play 5nl. (20 buy-ins)
When you have $250, play 10nl. (25 buy-ins)
When you have $750, play 25nl. (30 buy-ins)
When you have $1750, play 50nl. (35 buy-ins)
When you have $4000, play 100nl. (40 buy-ins)
When you have $10000, play 200nl. (50 buy-ins)

If you follow this and regularly play and work on your game, you'll be making a lot of money in less than two years imo.

[xptboy]

You remind me of myself like a month ago. I won a 4.4 180 man SnG and came second in another and got a BR of 500... then in the next three days I lost it all on 25NL thinking I was the unluckiest man on Earth. Don't monkey tilt it off, ifyou're not good enough, don't let them tilt you and lose the rest of ya cash.

[speedcake]

If you played poorly enough to donk off 92% of a $500 roll over a short time then I wouldn't even start at 10NL. I'd play 5NL until I beat it over at least 25k hands.

THEN move up to 10NL and beat that for at least 3/100 over at least 25k hands.

THEN maybe try moving up.


I've been there, done that and its paying off for me now that I've done things the right way.

[daven]

If you played poorly enough to donk off 92% of a $500 roll over a short time then I wouldn't even start at 10NL. I'd play 5NL until I beat it over at least 25k hands.

THEN move up to 10NL and beat that for at least 3/100 over at least 25k hands.

I recommend something close to this. Play 10nl with 50 buy-ins for a while. If you drop to $350 then move down (to lose 15+buyins is more likely bad play than variance). Move up to 25nl at BR = $750, with a stop-loss to move back down at $600.

also see spoon's post above

I was a bankroll nit starting out from scratch ($200) late last year - mostly cos bonuses were inflating my bankroll before I was certain I was beating the limits I was at - similar to your MTT cash. Now I'm as nitty as ever with my bankroll. I fnally moved up to 100nl with 50+ buyins, and I'm not even thinking about 200nl until I have $10k+

[Deuce Blue]

i think he means it was 302 before his 500 buck score last nite? so his roll would be 800ish...

If thats the case oops on my part. I thought he was at $302

sorry dude!!!

[bjsaust]

Theres also nothing wrong with playing 25nl but only playing a couple of tables for a while. Thats what I'm currently doing. I was 4-tabling 25nl, but atm I'm 2-tabling 50nl as I "take a shot".

[spoonitnow]

Oh my god the concept of "taking a shot" is so fucking stupid for micro-stakes and low-stakes Internet players that I wish it was never introduced.

[daven]

Oh my god the concept of "taking a shot" is so fucking stupid for micro-stakes and low-stakes Internet players that I wish it was never introduced.

QFMFT - move up based on bankroll/win-rate. Move down based on the same. That is all.

[bjsaust]

Differing definitions. For me any time you move up you're "taking a shot" regardless of your BR/Winrate.

[spoonitnow]

"Taking a shot" is like "moving up" except it's like omigad if I lose 2 buyins I move back down and thus pretty much completely misses the point.

[d0zer]

"Taking a shot" is like "moving up" except it's like omigad if I lose x buyins I move back down and thus pretty much completely misses the point.

Why does it matter what x is

[JinxT4]

"Taking a shot" is like "moving up" except it's like omigad if I lose 2 buyins I move back down and thus pretty much completely misses the point.

When you move up properly rolled, if you notice that you're losing over a small sample, how long do you continue to play the current stakes before moving back down?

Why does it matter what x is

If I had to guess, I would imagine if x is a small number (like 2-3), that taking a shot makes the outcome pretty much solely dependent on how hot/cold you run, as opposed to moving up properly rolled & the bankroll being able handle losing maybe 10 (?) buyins & being able to better see whether or not you're winning/losing at the higher stakes over a larger number of hands (takes more time to lose 10 buyins than 2-3).

Or am I completely off?

[spoonitnow]

"Taking a shot" is like "moving up" except it's like omigad if I lose x buyins I move back down and thus pretty much completely misses the point.

Why does it matter what x is

When x is small it has a similar effect on your lifespan at the stakes you're moving up to as if your entire bankroll management rule was to move up when you had x buy-ins at that game.

When you're ready to move up, you have a relatively large x for the level you're moving up to, and your win-rate at the level you're moving up from is sufficient, then it's fairly rare that you'll have to move down period.

The concept of "taking a shot" means you hope you don't catch even a minor bit of variance or you have to move back down. If you have been beating the level you're moving up from for at least 3 ptbb/100 over 50k hands like I've recommended time and time again, then you should not move back down from the stakes you've moved up to until you've lost at least 10 buy-ins.

If I had to guess, I would imagine if x is a small number (like 2-3), that taking a shot makes the outcome pretty much solely dependent on how hot/cold you run, as opposed to moving up properly rolled & the bankroll being able handle losing maybe 10 (?) buyins & being able to better see whether or not you're winning/losing at the higher stakes over a larger number of hands (takes more time to lose 10 buyins than 2-3).

Or am I completely off?

You're pretty much on the money.

[Jonny_MEMPHIS]

Excuse me if I sound like a complete noob to forum abbreviations, but is ptbb/100 the same as bb/100? Checking me PT I make 8.51 BB/100 for 28000 hands. How does this stack up to the rest of you? If ptbb/100 is different, how does this number translate? Just would like to know where I stand.

[spoonitnow]

A ptbb is twice the big blind, so say 5 ptbb/100 at $1/2 would be $10 per 100 hands.

The reason is that Poker Tracker was originally made for limit holdem, which measures big bets for it's win-rate, which is twice the big blind. =)

[Jonny_MEMPHIS]

Thanks for the quick reply, so I make 4.25 ptbb/100? What exactly does ptbb mean? So according to your prior post this is sufficient to move up when my bankroll allows me? Another random question....I've made one of those bankroll banners, but how do I post it in the forum?