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200nl river betsizing

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  1. #1

    Default 200nl river betsizing

    villain is either a very very bad pro shortstacker or a fish. I was unable to determine which at this point. I think I went under the assumption that villain was a pro ss'er. Anyway I expect to have the best hand almost 100% here OTR. I kinda dropped the ball setting up stacks on the turn so as played what should I bet on the river here? I thought about pot shoving as his range should be pretty strong here but I ended up betting $56. Thoughts?

    Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

    BB: $240.50
    UTG: $204.00
    Hero (UTG+1): $203.00
    MP1: $57.90
    MP2: $167.75
    CO: $204.15
    BTN: $234.10
    SB: $200.00

    Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG+1 with K Q
    1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, MP2 calls $6, 2 folds, SB calls $5, 1 fold

    Flop: ($20.00) 3 Q K (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $14, MP2 calls $14, SB folds

    Turn: ($48.00) 5 (2 players)
    Hero bets $32, MP2 calls $32

    River: ($112.00) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets...
  2. #2
    rpm's Avatar
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    my preferred line is:
    $16 on flop (into 20)
    $36 on turn (into 52)
    then ship the riv for the rest of the effective stacks (~112 into 124)

    as played on river i'm probably betting pretty large to target the top pair part of his range (which is a large chunk imo). only draw i can see him still holding is JT and this is outweighed in combinations by AK and KJ (he also won't be bluffing w/JT 100% of the time) so i definitely think we should be planning to value-bet instead of check/call, and given his range is like top pair hands and complete air, i wanna bet big to extract $ from the top pair hands. now i think about it, i guess we still can ship riv for a slight overbet, and i think that's what i'd be doing here.
  3. #3
    Yeah just bet more so you can shove.
  4. #4
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    sorry to go out of line on this thread, but vs a turn raise , like 2-3x do we fold/call/shove?

    as played w/ rpm.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  5. #5
    bikes's Avatar
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    screwed this hand up obv, bet like $78 as played, got snapped by K9

    ?wut
  6. #6
    which do you think would get you looked up lighter, jamming or betting half pot (which is also half your stack)?
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    sorry to go out of line on this thread, but vs a turn raise , like 2-3x do we fold/call/shove?
    Got to think I m shoving as we have blockers and hes not repping much after calling flop with another guy in the hand. Obv read/player dependant
  8. #8
    Yeah like everyone else has said, bet bigger on the turn. As played the pot is $112 and he has like $115 left so I just shove.
  9. #9
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reDZill4 View Post
    which do you think would get you looked up lighter, jamming or betting half pot (which is also half your stack)?
    Ship it!

    Besides, villains hand is either ak or aa. I'm leaning towards exactly ak based on op's reads of a shitty ss'er.

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