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50NL - Nut flush on paired board, passive player raises turn

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  1. #1
    Keilah's Avatar
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    Default 50NL - Nut flush on paired board, passive player raises turn

    Villain is 20/1/1 over ~50 hands. Is the turn push a good move? I certainly wouldn't be happy folding but calling commits me if he pushes the river. The only hands I see him holding are 44/33/Qx/rarely a low flush.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    MP3 ($53.25)
    CO ($101.25)
    Button ($41.70)
    SB ($44.10)
    BB ($49.25)
    UTG ($80.30)
    UTG+1 ($49.45)
    Hero ($48)
    MP2 ($29.60)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
    2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, MP3 calls $2, 4 folds.

    Flop: ($4.75) Q, 4, 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3.

    Turn: ($10.75) Q (2 players)
    Hero bets $6.75, MP3 raises to $15, Hero raises to $43, MP3 calls $28.

    River: ($96.75) T (2 players)

    Final Pot: $96.75
  2. #2
    Fnord's Avatar
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    Throw in the rare worse flush and I think you may as well shove.

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 55.455% 55.45% 00.00% 488 0.00 { AhKh }
    Hand 1: 44.545% 44.55% 00.00% 392 0.00 { 44-33, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }
  3. #3
    Miffed22001's Avatar
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    for me his stats suggest he isnt that good a player (20/1 seems pretty weak IMO) so i think he'd spew with a bare Queen here never mind a flush.
    Hes gona have a boat a fair part of the time so i think getting it in is pretty standard
    If you opponent was 12/10 or something decent i think its a much tougher decision
  4. #4
    Fnord's Avatar
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    I'd need to see his passive nit donk of the year ribbon before I would even consider playing this differently online.

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