Operation Infinity and Beyond

[koolmoe]

I will have more time to play poker over the next year, so I decided to set some goals.

My wife wants an Infinity G35, so my first goal will be to pay off my car loan so that I can trade in her car and get her the G35 without increasing my monthly debt load to car payments. I'll need about 11K to do this, and I would like to do it by this summer.

I'd also like to amass a big enough bankroll to play the $15/$30 limit game. I figure I'll need 12K to take a shot, but I'd like to keep a bankroll of 15K to play this game. I've played several hundred hands at $15/$30 to get a feel for the level of play, and I think I can be successful there if I am properly bankrolled.

Right now I'm playing $5/$10 6max, usually 2-3 tables, so I average about 200 hands per hour. At a rate of 2BB/100, I'll average about $40/hr. After about 500 hours (100K hands), I expect to have earned $20K, which should enable me to accomplish both goals. 500 hours of online poker will take me about 200 days, I would guess. I would like to accomplish my goals by 7/1/2005.

[mike4066]

I believe this is the Largest goal set yet.

Sounds like you've thought it through pretty well. Keep us updated.

[johnnyawe]

{Made sticky}

Looking forward to the updates, Moe.

[koolmoe]

Two sessions in. A hundred hands short of my goal, but at least I'm running good.

901 hands
VP$IP 25.31%
PFR 18.31%
Folded BB to steal 58.33%
Folded SB to steal 80.00%
Aggression 2.06/2.97/3.61/2.09/2.60 (preflop/flop/turn/river/overall)

Stats are a bit skewed because I ran well and went a little on posi-tilt tonight (400 hands at about 30% VP$IP and 20% PFR).

[koolmoe]

Day 5 (Sunday) completed, and I’m slightly ahead of schedule, having played over 3,000 hands. My initial rush has been tempered by a huge downswing. Fortunately, I won enough in the first 1,000 hands to keep me in positive territory, despite a -120BB downswing. I am now below my target earn rate <sigh> for the 3K hands since I’ve started.

One thing I’ve noticed is that when things are going bad, people keep taking shots at you. Of course this is true at full ring as well, but it is exaggerated in 6-max. I was happy to see my preflop raises getting cold called by crap hands, but lots of them managed to chase me down with only two or three outs. I also faced a lot of odd aggression, as if I had been raising with less than premium hands. Of course, this is the play I want to see, and these jokers pay you off in the end, but it does get frustrating at times.

One thing I’m working hard to avoid is Fancy Play Syndrome. Example: against a particularly tight and passive player, I called a preflop raise from the BB with Tc9c. The flop was ATx, two hearts. I think the flop action was bet, raise, call. The turn brings a third heart but doesn’t improve my hand (I’m left with only 5 outs if he has paired the ace). I check-raise, and he thinks for a while before calling. At this point, I figure he’s either got a big heart kicker or just decided to look me up, so I check the river when the fourth heart falls and he checks behind, winning with a pair of aces. He complimented me, “great raise,” to which I replied “thought you might lay it down,” thinking he was being sarcastic. He replied, “almost did.” I liked my play at the time, but I think I liked it just because it was tricky.

My wife and I looked at cars on Saturday. It’s amazing how much her attitude has changed now that I have announced formal plans to achieve a goal that will benefit her.

[Fnord]

One thing I’m working hard to avoid is Fancy Play Syndrome. Example: against a particularly tight and passive player, I called a preflop raise from the BB with Tc9c. The flop was ATx, two hearts. I think the flop action was bet, raise, call. The turn brings a third heart but doesn’t improve my hand (I’m left with only 5 outs if he has paired the ace). I check-raise, and he thinks for a while before calling. At this point, I figure he’s either got a big heart kicker or just decided to look me up, so I check the river when the fourth heart falls and he checks behind, winning with a pair of aces. He complimented me, “great raise,” to which I replied “thought you might lay it down,” thinking he was being sarcastic. He replied, “almost did.” I liked my play at the time, but I think I liked it just because it was tricky.

In a full ring game, that kind of aggression often means your Top Pair is no good. However, in 5/10 6 max the game is aggressive enough that you can't laydown top pair here. Hence, both good and bad players are calling down. Therefore, bluffing/overplaying hands with showdown value isn't a good idea in this game. I had a similar hand last weekend where I think KK called me down on a Axx board after a turn-semi bluff on a strong draw (memory fuzzy, I'll look up the hand when I get home.)

[johnnyawe]

{Sticky removed per new sticky policy}

[koolmoe]

I have been trying to decide what frequency is best for posting, and I think I have settled on every 5K hands. Not a lot interesting happens on a day-to-day basis.

I have played a little over 7K hands now, and I now feel fairly confident that my earn rate estimate will hold up (and may be conservative) over the long haul. I now have close to 20K hands of 6 max overall to support my opinion.

I have now seen a couple of nasty negative swings and managed to bounce back from them. Maintaining solid play in the face of bad losses is the key for me. A couple of days ago, I was two-tabling, flopped sets on each table simultatneously, and had them both cracked on the river, one by runner-runner flush, and one by a gutshot straight. I seriously had to calm myself down after that, and I did it by realizing that the bets I lost on those two hands were a drop in the bucket overall.

Things I've learned since my last post:

1) I seriously hate three-tabling 6 max. My monitor resolution isn't high enough to prevent overlap, and there are just too many decisions to make simultaneously three tabling. I can, however, play two tables and a full table, so I have taken to doing that ocasionally to clear bonus dollars at other sites.

2) I very much prefer taking days off to playing every day. To that end, I have started to play extra hands so that I can take a day off without falling too far behind. My wife seems to greatly appreciate my doing this, as she often falls asleep when I am playing, so she doesn't notice an extra half hour to an hour of playing time. She does notice the evenings when I am ahead of schedule and take the night off.

3) When I think of my goal in terms of hands played instead of bets earned, it has some interesting effects. First, it reduces my tilt. I'm often more focused on how may hands I've played rather than how much I am up or down. Second, it makes me think more long term. It seems like I've just started, but I am already 7% complete. That's a good feeling really. Finally, it turns my play into a little bit of a grind. That's not all bad, but I can certainly see why some professional players complain about their "job." Still, it's more interesting than my other daily grind. As a side note, you'll notice that I don't post my win results. I am trying hard not to let my earn rate be the focus of this endeavor, even though that's the way you keep score in poker.

4) After examining some hand histories, I noticed that my aggression is sometimes a function of my success since sitting at the table. In some ways, I think this is appropriate behavior because of the way players react to "blood in the water," but I want to even this out somewhat. Can anyone guess if I was up or down when I played this hand?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Koolmoe is SB with Q, Q. MP posts a blind of $5.
Button raises, Koolmoe 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP (poster) folds, Button caps, Koolmoe calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 5, 9, Q (2 players)
Button bets, Koolmoe raises, Button calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) J (2 players)
Button checks, Koolmoe bets, Button raises, Koolmoe 3-bets, Button caps, Koolmoe calls.

River: (14.70 BB) 6 (2 players)
Button bets, Koolmoe calls.

Final Pot: 16.70 BB

5) I have drastically toned down my river aggression. Statistically, I think it's a wash. I'm missing some bets, but inducing more bluffs. Hopefully my reading skills will improve some and I will find the right balance here. I'm more comfortable with my play on the river now than early on. I think I was a little too aggressive then. Still, I am searching for the right balance here.

A final interesting development. I am currently between jobs, so I have a lot of time to play right now. Interestingly, I am finding the games pretty good in the early afternoons. I guess it's all the European players.

7273 hands
VP$IP 22.91%
PFR 16.48%
Folded BB to steal 60.38%
Folded SB to steal 80.21%
Aggression 1.82/2.94/2.47/1.20/2.12 (preflop/flop/turn/river/overall)

[koolmoe]

Down about 100BB in the last 3000 hands. I'm extremely frustrated and considering joining Fnord back in 2/4. I'm still +BB, though, so I don't want to give up yet.

My table selection could be better. I am not leaving when I'm clearly being outplayed.

12193 hands
VP$IP 22.4%
PFR 15.86%
Folded BB to steal 61.71%
Folded SB to steal 83.64%
Aggression 1.76/2.86/2.43/1.24/2.07 (preflop/flop/turn/river/overall)

[koolmoe]

Well, this totally sucks, but I have had the most horrible run the last four sessions. Only one positive session of +17BB. The other three totaling -153BB for a grand total of -136 BB over the last week.

My win rate is miniscule, but still positive. I'm starting to doubt whether this is a productive exercise for me.

I lost a lot of would-be big hands tonight (including a 15BB pot with AA to a turned two pair - Q4s), but I just don't think I have the hand reading skills to be successful at 6 max. I'm going to take a break from it and play some full ring. It's just no fun playing hours on end and earning $5/hr doing it.

Actually, I may just take a break from poker altogether for a week or so. This last three weeks have been rough.

17220 hands
VP$IP 21.61%
PFR 14.95%
Folded BB to steal 60.13%
Folded SB to steal 84.98%
Aggression 1.67/3.08/2.48/1.22/2.07 (preflop/flop/turn/river/overall)

[koolmoe]

So I didn't play for a while and examined my bad sessions. One thing I discovered is that I was sitting at bad tables too long. I have committed myself to look for the best tables available rather than force myself to play 2-3 tables of 5/10 6 max. I have started to use my buddy list a littloe more frequently, and I have been able to find some higher stakes tables that were quite good. I have about 700 hands of $15/$30 where I followed a couple of maniacs and made about 5BB/100.

Still far short of my $20K goal.

5/10 6 max stats:
21693 hands
VP$IP 21.35%
PFR 14.56%
Folded BB to steal 57.63%
Folded SB to steal 85.89%
Aggression 1.61/3.06/2.55/1.34/2.07 (preflop/flop/turn/river/overall)

[koolmoe]

I'm still playing this game. After about 40K hands, I am winning at a rate of about .5 BB/100. I feel pretty certain that I just do not play loose enough to have great success at this level. I just fold my blinds to steals too much and play too weak after the flop.

Anyway, after much reflection on the various games I have played, I think I'm better off at a full ring game, where there is not as much pressure to play out of the blinds.

It's been a good experience, and I made a little money. The rakeback has been pretty sweet too. I'll probably come back to this game when I've studied a little more. The current state of my game is just not good enough I guess.

[koolmoe]

Funny, this seems so long ago, even though it was less than three months ago that I posted the last entry.

To make a long story short, I have rebounded and am earning a solid 2BB/100 in Party 5/10 6-max through several tens of thousands of hands. It's a mediocre - perhaps slightly above average - win rate, but I feel good about it, am comfortable with my ability right now (I'm far from the best on this site, but at least I'm a solid winner), and feel that my game will continue to improve with continued effort. I learned how to defend my blinds and play back at my opponents. I also play three or four tables now, but I rarely meet my target of 500 hands per day for the week. Just too busy at work.

I spent about three weeks trying out MTT's, after which I decided it was too much devotion of time during hours I would rather spend with my spouse.

I've also spent some time checking out GamesGrid, where I was able to earn about $50 per hour just from the bonus and VFP pay. I'm up there, but 80% of my profit was from bonus money.

Anyway, this operation is officially over, as I don't feel it is fruitful for me to post my progress and I doubt anyone was ever really all that interested. As far as progress towards my goal, I will not reach my goal of $20K by the end of June unless I suddenly get a long vacation from work, but I have been able to pay off my debts (except for my mortgage), which has freed up some cash flow that I will be using for investment property rather than a car. Ultimately, I believe that a solid job with the additional income afforded by poker (or another hobby that generates siginifcant income) is a quick and fun way to financial independence, and I will be devoting a significant part of my time to promote this idea.

Poker is freedom.

[FishMagician]

and I doubt anyone was ever really all that interested.

I don't know about anyone else, but the operations here are one of my favorite parts of this site. I guess because I'm still struggling to figure out how poker should fit into my life, it's nice for me to see people at different points of their poker lives trying to achieve different things.

You may not have reached your goal, but it was an ambitious one, and even in falling short, you still were successful in that you managed to pay off your debt.

[koolmoe]

[I guess because I'm still struggling to figure out how poker should fit into my life, it's nice for me to see people at different points of their poker lives trying to achieve different things.

This is probably the one thing I've figured out. Poker has a very big role in my life. It has essentially replaced most time wasting recreation activities for me (such as watching TV).

You may not have reached your goal, but it was an ambitious one, and even in falling short, you still were successful in that you managed to pay off your debt.

I don't feel like a failure or anything. If I didn't have other commitments, it would have been easy for me to reach my hands played goal, but my job kind of got in the way. Until poker becomes more profitable than employment, my job will have to take first priority. Even at $50/hr (which is about what I make three tabling), my job is more profitable, so poker must take a back seat.

Anyway, thanks for the sentiment.