2nl Shove OTF with Overpair

[DJAbacus]

As I mentioned in a few posts I feel I'm too passive at times and am trying not to be auto-passive in tougher spots.

Here's a tricky spot for me.

After plenty of thought, I decided to shove vs unknown here because:

I get called by worse hands: any overpair and A7
I fold out 98s and the odd junk combo
Even if I'm behind I still have 2 clean outs, not much but it all adds up

I did my EV calc vs this range ( Call(win) + Call (lose) + Fold (win)) and it came out a massive +2.97

What do you think of my calling range for this Villain?

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $1.03
SB: $5.81
Hero (BB): $3.41
UTG: $1.69
MP: $2.35
CO: $2.19

SB posts SB $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A A

fold, MP raises to $0.07, fold, fold, SB calls $0.06, Hero raises to $0.24, MP calls $0.17, SB calls $0.17

Flop: ($0.72, 3 players) 6 3 7
SB checks, Hero bets $0.56, MP calls $0.56, SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $3.17

EDIT:

I narrowed it down and recalculated and still +EV to shove here.

Calls with KK QQ 66 33 77 (still 56% equity vs this range)
Folds JJ TT
(So no A7 99 88 or 98s in his raising range OTF this time)

Basically I'm ahead of his range and I bet 3.61 to win 5.01 (+ folds) = +EV

[Timlagor]

I'd have gone with a bigger raise pre-flop at this level (you don't expect to scare them both off). Pot-Raise is 28c so probably about 35c though I might just shove too and hope I've found a fish or a heater (KK AK QQ), or just look fishy enough myself to get a call.

I'm having trouble seeing KK, QQ not raising pre-flop and I'd want to be them on the flop too but it's plausible without further info on him -you do need to discount them though. You might also get the occasional call from JJ/TT but that's getting fairly fishy. Let's not ignore the terrible calls we also get.
It's also possible he came in with 89s or even 45s but X/R would be weird again.

What we do know is his stack size which indicates he might know what he's doing so I think he has a set here nearly every time (@2NL he probably expects to be called).

How are you betting $3.61 off a $3.41 stack? ..or did you mean something else?

[MadMojoMonkey]

At the time of your shove, you face 2 opponents. It is not enough for your EV calc to only consider 1 Villain (unless you're assuming that one villain ALWAYS folds there).

Please show ranges for both villains at the time of your shove.
(Their range when you shove, and their range to call your shove.)

[DJAbacus]

There's plenty of fish on 888 that try to hide the strength of their premium hands PF by calling and that would include flatting an open then flatting a squeeze. However, there are also plenty of players who play pretty standard and would certainly look to get max value from KK. So its a case of trying to estimate the % of 'unknowns' that would still have KK OTF. Flopzilla has a feature that you can give a % weighting to any hand, which I have never used before and now I can see the purpose of it.

So in the spot OTT when Villain raises we give 33,66,77 100% weighting. We could then maybe give KK,QQ,JJ 40% rating and maybe other Overpairs say 20% weighting.

I don't think we can read too much into large stack sizes at 2nl SNAP. There are plenty of fish who pass their stacks around. Villains under $2 however, are either fish who are buying in full and not topping up, or SS. We have to be careful with SS becasue their are a decent amount that are nits and therefore are not spazzing out with K6o. Stack sizes under 80c means really bad and I'm happy to stack off with JJ+ AK and even a wider range as their stack approaches 0c.

EDIT:

Actually you can only do the weighting vs a Statistic ie. Overpairs.

So here's my calculations:

Assuming Villain is never folding the pot odds for shoving are 38%

If we give a 20% weighting (ie we think that 20% of Villains are raising OTT with these hands) to AA, KK, QQ, JJ and TT then our equity is 38%.

So that's our break even point.

[spoonitnow]

Go read this and comment in its thread:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-198755.html

I'm trying to make you more money here.

[DJAbacus]

Go read this and comment in its thread:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-198755.html

I'm trying to make you more money here.

I've read the blog, and noted down the 5 key concepts. However, I have to admit I don't know how this info helps me here, apart fro the fact that I know I'm in a MW pot and calculating the EV of shoving against just one opponent is clearly wrong.