Odds of getting outflopped

[jackvance]

I'm wondering what the odds of some occurrence on the flop are, and I can't easily put this in a calculator so I'm asking if anyone knows. What is the chance that someone hits the flop on a paired flop (JJ4r) when you have a pair (66)? We can give villains a range of 40/30/25/20% and from 2-6 players in the hand. I'm curious because I want to figure how often we're beat if we're in a pot like this with many people, which I often tend to assume, maybe incorrectly.

[Micro2Macro]

Check out flopzilla for this

[MadMojoMonkey]

Assign a range and count the combos in that range that "outflop" your holding for a given board.

offsuit combos count for 12
suited combos count for 4
and PP's count for 6

Divide that number by the number of combos in Villain's entire range and that's the % chance they out flopped you on that board.

Well, you should take card removal into account, since, as in your example with 2 Jacks OTF, there is only 1 combo of JJ left, not 6.

[jackvance]

Check out flopzilla for this

So the answer is, for a 30% range which excludes AQs+ and 4 villains (5 player family pot) there's a 56.4% chance someone has the jack and a 28% chance someone has the 4.

[ISillyDurrrAK]

Ur scenario is too vague, u don't specify teh action, position, suits, villains stats that way it can't be calculated. If we assume they are fish who raise 5% of hands and limp all the rest, then equilab shows tthis:

Board: JJ4
Equity Win Tie
MP2 22.26% 21.96% 0.30% { 6h6s }
MP3 16.65% 15.53% 1.12% { 77-44, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q4s+, J6s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
CO 17.67% 16.37% 1.29% { 77-55, ATs-A2s, KJs-K5s, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo-A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
BU 19.20% 17.81% 1.38% { 77-55, ATs-A2s, KJs-K6s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, AQo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
SB 24.23% 22.69% 1.54% { 77-66, ATs-A4s, KJs-K7s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[jackvance]

The assumption is that I raised and they called, that is why I removed AQs+ out of their range.

[ISillyDurrrAK]

Pokerazor (forbidden software) shows this vs 40/4.5 villain:

[jackvance]

12% to flop trip jacks, if we assume this percentage goes up a tad for every additional player (more non-J cards missing in the deck) then for 4 players we'll be at 50%+slightly. Similar to what I calculated, 56%. My range is a bit different though, 30% and I stripped AQs+ JJ+.