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[50NL] AA...Good spot for villain to bluff?

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  1. #1

    Default [50NL] AA...Good spot for villain to bluff?

    Villain is 26/20/4 over 196 hands. FT3B 63%, 5/8. FTCB 56%.

    PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BTN: $115.15
    SB: $50.00
    Hero (BB): $55.72
    UTG: $58.76
    MP: $92.87
    CO: $51.60

    SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A A

    fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.25, CO calls $3.75

    Flop: ($10.75, 2 players) 8 7 8
    Hero bets $5.75, CO calls $5.75

    Turn: ($22.25, 2 players) Q
    Hero bets $15.00, CO calls $15.00

    River: ($52.25, 2 players) Q
    Hero checks, CO bets $25.60 and is all-in, Hero ???

    Is this a fairly good spot for villain to bluff? When I check it's fairly unlikely I have 8x or Qx and leaves the pot open for villain to take. I don't see many value hands in villain's range either. I'm not sure he has any 8x in his range other than 88, not many Qx either, AQ/KQ seem the only plausible hands, as well as 77. That's like 19 value combo's villain can hold.

    Do we think villain would jam here w/ a flush? I don't expect him to jam w/ TT-JJ or KK. I'm not sure how much air villain has here either, flushes got there and I'm not sure if he calls 3bet pre w/ like T9s.

    Thoughts?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    Is 4 villains AF?

    Given the pot odds we're getting, I really think I'm calling here on the river. We will rarely have a c/c range here, and this is for sure the absolute top of our checking range. We block his floated AQ hands, leaving only 4 combos of AQ. He may have some flushes, but some ppl might not even jam river all the time on this run out.

    9T/JT both brick and 7x is counterfeited. If he's floating AQ he could also have floated AJ with a club that bricks.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  3. #3
    Sorry, 3rd stat in all my posts is always 3bet%
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  4. #4
    Join Date
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    i like cbetting a bit less, something like $4.40 in this spot, obviously calling to a raise and happily getting it in on the turn. Turn cbet seems really big.
    as played i probably shove river myself. I'm only checking if i'm check-folding. Is it more likely that this type of player:
    a) checks back hands like AJ/TT for showdown value
    b) calls them vs a shove, or
    c) shoves them as a bluff?
  5. #5
    Really hard decision. I don't think that the villain has flush, because for my opinion he will made re-raise on the turn (why to give an opportunity to his opponent for making a full house). The only cards that he may has is Qx. You really gave him an opportunity to bluff you.
    You invest a pretty good sum, but he made you a really big bet. Even the decision is hard I will tell you to go fold. However this is only my opinion, and the decision is your.
  6. #6
    Tom1559's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
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    Glasgow, Scotland
    This is a tough one. I think I was going to play the River I would have pushed on the River instead of folding and put the decision onto the villain. After checking and seeing the push from the villain I think I would bow out and keep what was left of my stack.
    Scottish Cowboy
  7. #7
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    It's a question of finding our optimal bluff catching hands. This isn't one of them.


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