KQs SB vs MP facing weird turn raise.

[Carroters]

Villain is a pretty aggro LAG who I've been battling a bunch with. He's recently called me down and lost extremely light after checking back a flop previously as pfr. His c-bet is 73% and I don't see him checking back anything strong on this flop. He seems to rep exactly 56s A5s and 55 which doesn't seem like much of a value range. I decide to call the turn with the idea of jamming over some river bets, but on the other hand this line is so ridiculous as a bluff. Is the mantra not that if villains line is really strange for both value and a bluff then it's probably for value?


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 102.84 BB (VPIP: 29.73, PFR: 24.94, 3Bet Preflop: 10.47, Hands: 846)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.88, PFR: 18.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 90)
BTN: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 24.87, PFR: 20.81, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 209)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.57, PFR: 9.60, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 485)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 215.74 BB (VPIP: 34.65, PFR: 29.70, 3Bet Preflop: 11.25, Hands: 209)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 6 9 A
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 4.5 BB, MP raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

River: (32.5 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP bets 26.38 BB, Hero?

[jackvance]

Not a bad mantra, I hadn't heard it before like that but I surely apply it to my game already.

[pocketfours]

Why are we facing a river bet when we we're supposed to be facing a turn raise...

Fold or 3bet turn. I'd fold. River pretty much irrelevant after this hand was butchered ott, but of course call it off to make the spew complete.

[Carroters]

Why are we facing a river bet when we we're supposed to be facing a turn raise...

Fold or 3bet turn. I'd fold. River pretty much irrelevant after this hand was butchered ott, but of course call it off to make the spew complete.

Yeah I posted it this way as my spewy plan was to do something that didn't involve folding on the river. Are you giving him more of a value range on the turn than stuff that made it on the turn and doesn't bet flop?

[jackvance]

I'm trying to find hands he would play like this if he was strong on the flop. AA? 78s bets, A9 bets 66/99 bet, it's drawy enough. I've seen people do this when they have 55. And fwiw a low percentage of the time I might slowplay a strong hand like this because I know noone believes this. I'm never bluffing here because it is too obviously bluffy.

[Carroters]

I'm trying to find hands he would play like this if he was strong on the flop. AA? 78s bets, A9 bets 66/99 bet, it's drawy enough. I've seen people do this when they have 55. And fwiw a low percentage of the time I might slowplay a strong hand like this because I know noone believes this. I'm never bluffing here because it is too obviously bluffy.

Yeah I agree with this, it just doesn't make any sense for a competent reg to run a bluff here, and moreover, I think most of the hands that even need to bluff here he's c-betting flop with. I play bad. I did fold the river in the end as I decided to abandon my plan and not "make the spew complete"

[jackvance]

I would play it the same actually. On the turn you still have the nut draw and there's a chance he is just raising a gut shot like 7x 8x and such things. When he bets the river big you fold.

It would be really interesting if villain is capable of doing this with a hand like T8s or 67s. One you beat one you don't. But there just aren't many of those hands in a normal preflop range that would bet near pot on the river, so this is very heavily discounted.

[gabe]

Villain is a pretty aggro LAG who I've been battling a bunch with. He's recently called me down and lost extremely light after checking back a flop previously as pfr. His c-bet is 73% and I don't see him checking back anything strong on this flop. He seems to rep exactly 56s A5s and 55 which doesn't seem like much of a value range. I decide to call the turn with the idea of jamming over some river bets, but on the other hand this line is so ridiculous as a bluff. Is the mantra not that if villains line is really strange for both value and a bluff then it's probably for value?


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 102.84 BB (VPIP: 29.73, PFR: 24.94, 3Bet Preflop: 10.47, Hands: 846)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.88, PFR: 18.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 90)
BTN: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 24.87, PFR: 20.81, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 209)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.57, PFR: 9.60, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 485)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 215.74 BB (VPIP: 34.65, PFR: 29.70, 3Bet Preflop: 11.25, Hands: 209)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

how about try to win a big pot with this pretty hand

[Renton]

P4s you do see he has the nut flush draw and the nut high card, right? Turn is a clear call, he can have clubs, but I'd fold the river. I think calling with the intention of check jamming rivers is a bad idea when his only legit hand range is two pair and a set and you beat air. You should be calling with the intention of maybe calling some rivers, or folding every river, but I wouldn't consider c/ring any rivers.

[griffey24]

Call turn and fold river seems like it would be my standard.

[gabe]

but I wouldn't consider c/ring any rivers.

all the aces seem pretty good


i 3b pre 90+%

[pocketfours]

P4s you do see he has the nut flush draw and the nut high card, right? Turn is a clear call, he can have clubs, but I'd fold the river. I think calling with the intention of check jamming rivers is a bad idea when his only legit hand range is two pair and a set and you beat air. You should be calling with the intention of maybe calling some rivers, or folding every river, but I wouldn't consider c/ring any rivers.

Yeah I still think it's super marginal with only 7 outs to the nuts, very little io but some rio depending on our plan. Very unlikely we will win when we hit a pair. Villain rarely has spades which is a big problem. By the way if I'm calling then I'm leading both clubs and spades.