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Marginal overpair deep vs aggressive fish

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  1. #1

    Default Marginal overpair deep vs aggressive fish

    First, hello to everyone I know round here - work and real-life took over for a while and I haven't played for some time, not sure to what extent I'll be regularly around, my schedule is kinda hectic, but going to try to start playing again at least somewhat regularly.

    I'd been sat to the left of the SB for about 20 hands and suspected some agro-tard tendencies, I'd seen him check back an A-high flop then pot a brick turn unimproved with two random suited, and his stats were tardy (60/20/7).

    UTG ($174.32)
    MP ($34.41)
    CO ($38.42)
    Button ($104.30)
    SB ($55.32)
    Hero (BB) ($53.41)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
    1 fold, MP raises to $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.90, Hero raises to $3.25, MP calls $2.25, 1 fold, SB calls $2.25

    Flop: ($11.05) 9, 7, 2 (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $21.73

    Vs JJ,99,77,22,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah8h,Ah7h,8h7h,Ah6 h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h I have about 35% equity so I don't really feel I could have called a check-jam from him here, but flatting his flop raise leaves $30 behind with a turn pot of $55, so on a non-heart turn I'd be calling $30 into $85 needing 35% which I'd comfortably have, and I feel like if I'm not just going to fold to the flop c/r I need to see a showdown, even this deep.

    Thoughts?
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Hi Boris. Welcome back.

    I've moved this to the Small Stakes No-Limit Hold'em forum for you. It's the same group of people as the BC mostly, but for the sake of organization, we put hand histories in the SSNL forum with general questions/discussion/etc in the BC.

    I'm of the opinion that his range is pretty damn wide and that you're definitely ahead of the range he'll stack off with here. I go ahead and get it in.

    The only question left is how to get it in. I think if we call here, we give him a chance to spaz shove on plenty of turns, and we get a ton of value that we wouldn't get from shoving now.
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I feel like the range you've assigned Villain after the x/r is too tight. I doubt he's treating TT any different than JJ. I doubt that his range is only sets, over-pairs and FD. Given his spazzy push earlier, I think he can do this with a lot of air, maybe even A9, probably T8, 86. I don't know how wide his range is PRE, and including 86 is pretty thin, but his stats are indicative of very wide ranges.

    It's kind of moot, because I agree with spoonitnow. I think there's plenty of reason to think Hero is well ahead of Villain's range. I think that if Hero shoves here, that it allows (nay, forces) Villain to play perfectly in response.

    Call the x/r. There's not much to make me want to fold this hand. Board pairing will be scary, but I think I still sigh-call if it pairs and he shoves.

    Even given his spaz, I think I shut down if a heart peels OTT. Thoughts?
  4. #4
    Hi MMM, thanks for the reply.

    Thanks for your input - I agree, it's a good spot to get the money in. I also agree with spoonitnow and you that shoving over his C/R is not the best way to do that, however, your last point - what happens if a heart turns, is part of what gets me - he can have all sorts of spaz here, and with half the money already in, I don't feel like I can consider folding really any turn at all - ie. if I'm calling the flop, I'm seeing a showdown. If his range is as full of small heart connectors as you say, then I should also have some backdoor equity holding the Jh if a heart does turn and he makes the flush.

    spoonitnow or others - what are your thoughts on the above - if you aren't raising but are instead calling the flop c/r in the hope of letting him spaz and get the rest of the money in himself on a later street, is there any turn you'd fold?

    Further to that, if a non-heart turns, are you shoving the turn yourself rather than letting him check it back if he's drawing?
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 09-19-2015 at 04:33 PM.
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Hi MMM, thanks for the reply.
    Good to see you back, Boris!



    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    If his range is as full of small heart connectors as you say, then I should also have some backdoor equity holding the Jh if a heart does turn and he makes the flush.
    This is a good point that I overlooked.

    I actually deleted a couple of lines where I dithered on the runout including a heart OTT. I deleted them, because your assigned range is almost entirely heart draws, and if you know (well, strongly suspect) that you're beat, then you have to fold. However, I personally think that there are more than draws in there... BUT I'm making an unhealthy set of assumptions which are at odds with your analysis of Villain's range.

    If he's shipping on any turn, having made a flush, then you have only 7 outs to re-draw to a J-high flush. Even if he's got a lot of heart draws in his hand, they are mostly weighted to AXhh, maybe a strong portion of KXhh. Your re-draw value is probably terrible.

    This is assuming that he's at least moderately discerning when it comes to suited cards PRE at 50NL.
    (This is 50NL, right?)
  6. #6
    Good to see you're still around too MMM, hope you're crushing it.

    Your reply is full of valid points especially that my feelings about having to see a showdown if we get so much money in OTF are not valid if I think his range is as weighted to heart draws as I said I thought it was. If I really think that I should be c/f heart turns. I guess I sort of agree that there's a ton more crap and spaz in his range I just wasn't specific about what it is - I'm on a tablet now but when I'm at my PC tomorrow I'll do some more figuring on what else I think he could have and analyse the turn a bit more.

    It's not 50NL, it's a deep 25NL game with antes, so we're over 200bb deep here - 100bb deep I think the hand plays very differently and I don't really have too many questions about it, I think it's how deep we are that makes it an interesting spot for me since the 2 callers pre plus the antes lead to the pot getting "uncomfortably" big for me otf and stacks get committed quickly.
  7. #7
    OK yeah so I did some turn analysis. I gave him a preflop range for flatting preflop then calling the 3bet of:

    QQ-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s,32s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo

    If he'll raise the flop with the range I previously gave him, but also with backdoor FDs, then I can profitably call heart turns. If I didn't hold Jh then calling heart turns would actually still be really good with those same assumptions, an EV of about 80bb, but with the Jh in my hand it goes up to an EV of 123bb calling a shove on heart turns.
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 09-22-2015 at 05:47 PM.
  8. #8
    Meh, I'd just fold vs a committing c/r multiway and deep.
  9. #9
    I tried my hardest to talk myself into a fold here (I slept on it and everything), but there's just not a fold to be had.

    I'm not at all surprised when he shows up with 97o, but the dude is playing 60% of hands (it's lower when he call/calls PF, but it's still massively wide), and he's playing that range recklessly. This is the type of board where I see villain coming up with a million excuses to do something silly with an unpredictable range of hands: he puts us on AK and wants to put his balls on the table with Q8s in the wrong suit, he finally got (what he thinks is) a great hand PF and is angry that such a stupid board came out that whiffed his KQ, he thinks 9x is the nuts, he has 66 and thinks he can blow all the draws away. Not any one of those is as likely as the simple explanation (he binked two pair+), but given the insane wealth of combos he could potentially go bananas with, I would call this the situation you've been waiting for when a spazz villain sat to your direct right.

    The fact that this was 3-way going to the flop doesn't even register for this villain, especially because it's HU by the time he pulls the trigger. I flat and let him fuck-it shove on the turn. His calling a 3b shove range is going to be *much* stronger than his fuck-it shove range. Even on most heart turns, I'm pleased with our overpair+redraw, though we obviously have some thinking to do on turns like Ah and 6h.

    RE: your ranges - this isn't really a spot where you put villain on specific combos and assess your equity. You kinda just have to consider how many combos does he have of hands that have us crushed versus how wide is his range of potential spazz hands (and how do we fair equity-wise against those) weighted by how likely he is to actually spazz with those hands. It's inexact, but it's better to rely on imprecise approximations of reality than it is to dissect numbers that don't very much represent reality. This is maybe dangerous advice; don't you dare go applying this in river spots against predictable regs where ranges are narrow!
  10. #10
    Those stats clearly are from a bad player, still 20 hands isn't much to have a good read on the opponent, if in the other hands he was calling 3bets, i assume he is calling light and you could have the best hand here. I don't think he is folding a 9 here. I'm jamming, he can also have a flush draw.
  11. #11
    He's gonna show up with a flush draw or top pair way more often than a set, this is a no brainer for me. I'm getting it in now, I don't anticipate a fold.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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