flop bottom set from ep two tone board 100nl

[daven]

unfortunately i lost all my player notes (here's hoping ftp support can fix the xml file), so i'm running this one on stats only.

UTG i fold 33 a bunch, limp rarely and open occasionally. MP1 is decent with a good bit of aggro going on, kinda trappy. He's 38% fold to c-bet, 20% raise. Pre-flop he's definitely at the looser end of the spectrum.

BB is fish who chases draws a little too often and calls good hands but generally likes his fold button on his mid-strength made hands.

Flop I'm c-betting ldo. The raise is interesting, like MP1 is expecting me to have AK type of hands here a lot of the time. So, that puts him on hands that like to get involved against a strong range here.
He doesn't have combo draws much here, maybe KQhh/QJhh/TJhh, but he folds them a bunch pre-flop cos the games are kinda squeezey. By the same token he can have AK/AA/KK. He actually looks a lot like 33, but i got 33.... sb call is like always A3 (one combo), AQ, AK, flush draws - mostly flush draws. This makes MP1's range even more interesting. Fuck, i just jam - although my equity here is interesting

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($33.50)
SB ($69)
BB ($47.30)
Hero (UTG) ($169.95)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($105.70)
CO ($396.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3, 3
Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $3.50, 4 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) K, A, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, MP1 raises to $28, BB calls $28, Hero tanks, then shoves,

[badgers]

wow this spot is really sick. MP1's vpip/pfr? I think this might actually be a fold..

[badgers]

wow this spot is really sick. MP1's vpip/pfr? I think this might actually be a fold..

[Miffed22001]

my experience of FTP was that people overplay hands so id weight this range to AK more than AA/KK which can still be possible. No way is this a fold - but i might call and stack a donk the turn rather than jamming.
On stars id be meh at jamming here as there is much more cold calling of UTG raises with AA/KK

[caddie444]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

288,057 games 0.004 secs 72,014,250 games/sec

Board: Kc Ah 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.125% 43.12% 00.00% 124224 0.00 { 3c3s }
Hand 1: 38.885% 38.36% 00.53% 110489 1522.50 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 17.990% 17.46% 00.53% 50299 1522.50 { AKs, A3s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AQo+ }

Easy value Shove against even tight range for MP1

Our equity actually improves the more flush draws we take out of BB's range

[pokerfan]

Man,there's lots of money in the pot already. Shove all day twice on Sunday vs 90% of opponents barring super nits. Villian got more AK combos than KK+ for sure. It'd be so silly to fold your set here when you decide to open UTG and hit the jackpot.

[badgers]

well yes obviously if you weight AK and KK+ the same it's a trivial shove....

[Deanglow]

shove the fish has blockers a lot

[OhioRounder]

Now way I'm ever folding. If he's flatting with KK+ then make a note he's a retard and move on. If there's ever a board I want to hit bottom set, this is it. Shove.

[Deanglow]

flatting with KK and AA is better than 3betting here sorry he is not a "retard"

[daven]

If he's flatting with KK+ then make a note he's a retard and move on. If there's ever a board I want to hit bottom set, this is it. Shove.

um, what? What should he do instead? and why? 3-betting is ok too, obviously - but why is calling awful?

this decision is actually close given that villain is very decent. My UTG open/cbet AK3 range is very strong when there is a retard check-calling any ace in the sb, villain knows this.

[OhioRounder]

Retarded or not, and whether he has KK+ or not doesn't really matter. Are we ever behind enough here to consider a fold?

[daven]

Retarded or not, and whether he has KK+ or not doesn't really matter. Are we ever behind enough here to consider a fold?

close, but i think no. If we weight the stove to only a few of the AK combos it gets interesting tho

[OhioRounder]

We're about dead even vs KK+ and AK on the flop. But if you add AQ in his range we're a 3:1 fav, but AQ is kinda meh. He may expect you to have AQ in this spot though (with him having AK) because he's not soul reading your set of 3s by a standard cbet. Ugh, this is actually a pretty sick spot now that I think about it. Still don't think I can find a fold tho.