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the rule of 4 and 2 for ofc
There is no rule of 4 and 2 for ofc - we have way more dead cards in this game than in holdem. Still, there are shortcuts we can use to get rough estimates for the percentages of hitting our draws.
Shortcuts (courtesy of MMM):
1. Approximate hitting percentage after 6th street to 9th street:
8*(outs) - 4.5*(street) + 45
2. Approximate hitting percentage after 10th street to 12th street:
4.5*(outs) - 13*(street) + 150
Notes:
5th street is a special case so we skip it with the shortcuts.
Our chances tend to be about 2% higher if we're the dealer than if we're out of position.
#1 works reasonably well with 9 outs or less.
#2 works reasonably well with 10 outs or less.
Examples:
#1
After setting 6th street heads up out of position, we have 7, 8, 9, T rainbow on the bottom. All 4 sixes and 4 jacks are live so we have 8 outs. Using shortcut #1, our approximate percentage is:
= 8*(outs) - 4.5*(street) + 45
= 8*8 - 4.5*6 + 45
= 64 - 27 + 45
= 82%
Our actual percentage is 81% so our approximation is very close.
#2
After setting 10th street heads up with the dealer button, we have 7, 8, 9, T rainbow on the bottom. All 4 sixes and 4 jacks are live so we have 8 outs. Using shortcut #2, our approximate percentage is:
= 4.5*(outs) - 13*(street) + 150
= 4.5*8 - 13*10 + 150
= 36 - 130 + 150
= 56%
Our actual percentage is 1 - (24,3)/(32,3) or 59.2% so our approximation is within 5 percentage points.
Here are the actual percentages from MMM:
Here are more details: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...hs-196358.html
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