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2/4: turn spot

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  1. #1
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Default 2/4: turn spot

    Villain is 5knl HU aggro reg. Limper is VPIP 100 passive whale.

    Hero ($642.86)
    SB ($550.70)
    BB ($596.66)
    UTG ($149.80)
    MP ($506.96)
    CO ($471.52)

    Preflop Hero has J 4
    UTG calls $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, SB raises to $20, 1 fold, UTG calls $16, Hero calls $16

    Flop: ($64) (3 players) T 9 4
    SB bets $40, 1 fold, Hero calls $40

    Turn: ($144) (2 players) T 9 4 5
    SB bets $108, Hero?


  2. #2
    Don't see why we would do anything other than call?

    I'd raise/get it in on the flop if he was the type to jam KJ/KQ/AK/AQ. Or just call call and re-eval river.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  3. #3
    Renton's Avatar
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    This is just a crystal clear call call fold if you don't improve hand. Many/most of your flush draws will be nutted enough to raise the flop so it will be nice to be able to have some flushes when you call the flop and 4x of hearts will help fill that role. Turn I can't see any other play but calling, again with intentions of folding on all cards that aren't a Jack, 4, or heart. You could possibly fold on the Jack of clubs as well.
  4. #4
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Raising protects our equity against KQcc type hands and it even protects us from rio when he has A2hh type hands. He's got a ton of them in his range here.

    Hitting a J high flush on the river isn't going to do us much good imo.


  5. #5
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    Protection doesn't have a lot of value when for every dollar of value you gain in protection corresponds to 2 or 3 dollars of loss from putting money in with the worst hand, and the likelihood of having the worst hand is so high.

    Hitting a jack high flush will be worth quite a bit in a spot where we will not have too many flushes in our range and he'll be quite tempted to follow through with this bricked clubs and straight draws, not to mention value betting tons of worse hands. Hitting a 4 will be worth a lot as well. Jack will be a card that you will probably make a crying call on so it won't influence the implied odds calculation very much one way or the other.
  6. #6
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    Suppose on the turn, the following conditions are in place:

    1) 50% of his betting range are bluffs/semibluffs which have 20% equity vs your hand.
    2) The other 50% of his betting range are value hands which have 75% equity vs your hand.


    Assuming we raise to 244 he'll respond by doing the following:

    - Folding his bluff hands (50%). You will win the pot of 252, an ex showdown gain of 252*0.2 = 50.4$. You force him to fold his equity share and 50.4$ is your protection value.

    - Shoving his value hands (50%). You will be pot committed to call for the rest, so even though your raise is to 244 its effectively the same as if you'd just shoved 490 onto a 252 pot. Your EV in this scenario will be as follows: EV = 0.25*(144+490) - 0.75*(490) = -209$. In ex showdown, this is also your ex showdown loss.

    Total EV = 0.5*252 - 0.5*209 = +21.5$

    Assuming we call instead, suppose the following outcomes:

    - Our equity on unimproving cards (35/46, we'll count the jack for simplicity) will be very small, lets say 10% of the pot. This is a pretty extreme simplification, in reality we might have a lot more equity vs his checking range and he might check a lot more often, but suppose a worst case scenario has him giving up often enough that our equity when we don't improve is only 10%. EV = 0.10*252 - 0.90*108 = -72$

    - When we hit a heart (9/46), he will shove 382 into 360 with the top 35% of his 50% value range, against which we have 85% equity. He'll also shove the top 15% of his 50% bluffing range. Otherwise he will check/fold. EV = 0.175*0.85*(382+144+108) - 0.175*0.15*(108+382) + 0.075*(382+144+108) + (1-0.175-0.075)*(108+144) = +318$

    - When we hit a four (2/46), he'll shove 80% of his 50% value range and 30% of his 50% bluffs. You'll have 75% equity vs his value range on average. Otherwise he'll check fold. EV = 0.4*0.75*(382+144+108) - 0.4*0.25*(382+108) + 0.15*(382+144+108) + (1-0.4-0.15)*(108+144) = +349.7

    Total EV = (9/46)*(318) + (2/46)*(349.7) - (35/46)(72) = +22.6$


    Obviously these are all extremely arbitrary assumptions, I just mean to provide some information for comparison of your turn line.
    Last edited by Renton; 04-24-2014 at 08:18 AM.
  7. #7
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    We should get better results if we consider his range more carefully. This is my perception of his range ott (equilab):

    Board: T94 5

    VILLAIN 50.53% { QQ+,JdJs,JdJc,JsJc,TdTs,TdTc,TsTc,9d9s,9d9c,9s9c,K Qs,AhKh,AcKc,AhQh,AcQc,AcJc,KdJd,KsJs,KcJc,QdJd,Qs Js,QcJc,AdTd,AsTs,AcTc,KdTd,KsTs,KcTc,QdTd,QsTs,Qc Tc,JdTd,JsTs,JcTc,Ad9d,As9s,Ac9c,Td9d,Ts9s,Tc9c,Ah 8h,Ac8c,Ah7h,Ac7c,Ah6h,Ac6c,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ac3c,Ah2h,Ac 2c,KQo,AdTs,AdTc,AhTd,AhTs,AhTc,AsTd,AsTc,AcTd,AcT s,KdJs,KdJc,KhJd,KhJs,KhJc,KsJd,KsJc,KcJd,KcJs,KdT s,KdTc,KhTd,KhTs,KhTc,KsTd,KsTc,KcTd,KcTs,QdJs,QdJ c,QhJd,QhJs,QhJc,QsJd,QsJc,QcJd,QcJs,QdTs,QdTc,QhT d,QhTs,QhTc,QsTd,QsTc,QcTd,QcTs,JdTs,JdTc,JsTd,JsT c,JcTd,JcTs }

    HERO 49.47% { Jh4h }


    Eff stacks ott $424 not $490 and I think he folds KJo(9)/KQo(12)/QJo(9)/KJs(2)/KQs(2)/QJs(2)/A9s(1) without flushdraw to a shove (37/134 combos), calls with everything else (97/134).


    Board: T94 5

    VILLAIN 63.12% { QQ+,JdJs,JdJc,JsJc,TdTs,TdTc,TsTc,9d9s,9d9c,9s9c,A hKh,AcKc,AhQh,AcQc,KhQh,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc,AdTd,A sTs,AcTc,KdTd,KsTs,KcTc,QdTd,QsTs,QcTc,JdTd,JsTs,J cTc,Ac9c,Td9d,Ts9s,Tc9c,Ah8h,Ac8c,Ah7h,Ac7c,Ah6h,A c6c,Ah5h,Ah3h,Ac3c,Ah2h,Ac2c,AdTs,AdTc,AhTd,AhTs,A hTc,AsTd,AsTc,AcTd,AcTs,KdTs,KdTc,KhTd,KhTs,KhTc,K sTd,KsTc,KcTd,KcTs,QdTs,QdTc,QhTd,QhTs,QhTc,QsTd,Q sTc,QcTd,QcTs,JdTs,JdTc,JsTd,JsTc,JcTd,JcTs }

    HERO 36.88% { Jh4h }


    Not a clue whether he bluffs river on blanks, so we should evaluate four scenarios 1. He doesn't bluff 2. He bluffs and we call unimproved 3. He bluffs and we only call when improved. 4. He doesn't bluff but we still call unimproved.

    Even without doing all the math, it seems clear that our optimal turn play is at least in part decided by how well we would fare in the river bluffcatching game. To get a decent generic answer we could solve the river with gto strategies for both players.


  8. #8
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    Stacks are 490, not 424, not sure where you're getting that number from. It actually makes this turn spot a good bit more awkward than if there was 350-400 left instead, and more favorable toward calling with J4 of hearts. That said, it makes it kind of an interesting spot to have a raising range consisting of bluff hands that have no equity and no need to call it off for the rest, as you can make a small raise and effectively be shoving 490 while only risking 225-250.

    I also think your turn range for him is a little too wide. I don't believe he will bet 108 with every single top pair holding. However it is hard to predict how he would play his range in this rather uncommon limped pot scenario. I've been kind of treating it as a 3-bet pot, at least with regard to villain's range. Your range preflop is quite weaker than a 3-bet pot though as you probably cannot even have JTo. Your limp calling range is in terrible shape on this board unless you flopped bottom set or turned bottom two pair.

    As far as whether you'll be able to call blank rivers, I think its highly doubtful that you will be able to, and even if you find a few rivers to call, it's not going to significantly influence the compound EV of your turn strategy. The scenario of you calling 108 and the river being something other than a J, 4, or heart is going to be a very large loss, probably of at least 60-65 dollars. However, in terms of ex showdown loss, i.e. folding your hand when it was best, you will not lose much at all. It is simply going to be a quite remote possibility for one pair of 4s to be good by then.

    I would take the line on the turn that causes you to make the least ex showdown mistakes or induce the most ex showdown mistakes from your opponent. By this I mean take the line that involves you folding the best hand less often and getting value from worse more often. It is obvious that calling will be better for inducing mistakes from him and shoving will be better at preventing mistakes from you. Take your pick, I wouldn't be surprised if the turn is a raise just because your range is so fucking bad on the river that EVEN if he responds to your raise perfectly, it will result in a smaller ex showdown loss for you than if you called the turn.
    Last edited by Renton; 04-24-2014 at 08:20 PM.
  9. #9
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    I think villain only has one sizing on the turn and he definitely bets every top pair and imo even A9 as he isn't expecting to face a raise very often. He also doesn't think I'm going to call this board twice and then bluff the river and he's probably right.


    Looks like I'm better off folding to the raise pre as the whale is short anyway.


  10. #10
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    Yeah preflop is really bad IMO, even the limp is questionable. I hadn't noticed his stack.

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