1/3NL: Nobody Has Anything, I have a draw, yet I have no idea how to win the pot

[surviva316]

MPs are whatever passive live players. I don't have much of a read on them at this point, and they don't end up being important.

BU (~$400) is an unknown 20-something with a red beard; he's very friendly with some of the room's TAG regs, so maybe he's TAG-ish, but it's too early to tell.

BB (has me covered) is this guy. I've since gotten a better idea of his game, though. Anytime he has 4+ outs, he's going to push them hard. I'm not even sure he does much hand reading. He's a smart guy, no doubt (card counting smarts, and he enjoys impressing people with how good he is with chips and pot sizes and such), so I'm sure there's quite a bit of thought process that goes behind his play, but the results are the same regardless: flop equity, push it hard, hope that either villain folds or that he hits. I did see him value raise a river with trips-top-kicker on a 3-flush board with straight possibilities, which by live standards is a razor thin value bet, and he's mentioned that people do a lot of weird things against him, so he is well aware of his image and there's more value to be reckon in his bets than usual, so there's that. He thinks he's entitled to every pot he commits money, though; has titled over retardedly standard spots (especially for someone with such a LAG game), like missing outs, facing call downs with TPGK, etc. He has a very unsubtle humble brag going on about everything all the time, from how he stacks his chips to how often he Seat Changes and Table Changes He's gotten in an argument with an 80-yo reg over stupid shit in the last session. He might have some social condition like a mild form of OCD or Aspbergers. We're very early into this session, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't remember me from last time.

Not sure how much of that is relevant, but cliffnotes is that he's an ego-fueled LAG who's smart, but not necessarily in all the relevant poker faculties, and who is deadset on winning every pot once he hits a GSSD+. He's LAGgier postflop than pre, but he's a sucker for playable hands preflop.

Hero ($550) probably has a dirty, losing image, as I've been very aggressive preflop and have already dropped a BI without getting to showdown in my first two orbits.

OTTH:

Three limpers in front of Hero, who holds 76hh in the CO. Hero tries to get a read on how interested BU is in his hand, but he doesn't look at them until action is on him (the bastard). I'm deep on one of the limpers, only $100 on the other, and my image isn't good. I've tanked for a bit at this point, and I hate to tank/raise with a marginal hand and a bad image with bluffy players left to act, so I just overlimp. This might be the first mistake of the hand.

Button makes it $11, which--given his sizing--is unsurprisingly called by BB, two of the limpers (one folds), and me.

Flop ($52) comes Qd 4h 3d. We all check to BU, who makes it $22. BB gives it a few seconds, but calls without too much serious consideration of his other options. Folds to me, and I make it $95.

BU folds, and hates life over it. BB calls.

Turn ($264) is 9c. Effective stacks are now at ~$450. Checks to Hero. We do what?


The absolute last thing I want to do is leave villain the option of shoving all of his chips over a bet from us, and we're forced to boost his redline (or, you know, call with 7-high).

At first, I really liked the idea of checking back and shoving over on any blank river, but any line that includes a check on this turn reps absolutely nothing, and my hand looks even more like a busted draw than his does. I certainly expect to get called by Qx if I take that line, but maybe I can trust that he just tilt folds A-high? Kinda disastrous if I can't rely on that.

Flatting the flop seemed like the worst option as that would waive my only opportunity to rep anything better than Qx. Induce bet/shove seems maybe interesting but probably disastrous against this particular villain, as he probably thinks a NFD is something you're never ever ever supposed to fold, and there are a lot of NFDs in his flop call / call range.

I could also wait until I have something better than a GSSD + BDFD to make a move anytime this player is in the pot, but that seems absurdly weaktight/scared poker when all the player has done is call a juicer raise preflop and a tiny cbet on the flop, and I know that nobody has a hand worth stacking off with, and my range perfectly well does have those hands in it.

ETA: I hate all my options. Help me, FTR, you're my only hope.

[surviva316]

Oh, and I can't feel certain that he doesn't have KQ+ (I haven't seen him 3b a whole lot preflop, and I'm not sure if he's in the business of x/ring single pair hands, even in the face of a tiny bet), so overbet shoving feels close against someone who hates to lose pots. I think the vast majority of his range is stupid BS, but I feel he's the type of player that if anything at all is unusual, then he'll use it as an excuse to call.

[baudib]

How often do you get to check-raise the flop and be in position on the next street?

I actually like leading the flop here; it's unlikely to have hit anyone very hard and we can barrel plenty of turn cards.

This isn't one of them. One of the nice things about live poker is you can take an aggressive action on the flop, pot control the turn and value bet the river with QJ/KQ type hands and get paid nearly every time.

[baudib]

Also, I don't know what it means but your threads make me want to fold/give up all the time. That's probably not a good sign for my game.

[acg123]

tough spot, I would b/f $125 and shove every river. diamonds included. if our image is dirty agro then he expects us to x/r FDs some % of the time and will probably call down with Qx unless a diamond comes. if he has NFD he will call turn and x/f on miss and probably give some info on river diamond. ex. tank, lead out, tank chk etc.