FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

[baudib]

Wuf, you've bolded Lolzz and now BID based on the fact that they could be bad seers?

[wufwugy]

Wuf, you've bolded Lolzz and now BID based on the fact that they could be bad seers?

You keep saying you know my style and have all these reads on me, yet..........you don't. My lolz and bid bolds are ultra standard


And yes, I'm not that concerned about lynching them if they're specials. They have demonstrated that they don't take their roles seriously and will increase confusion based on them

[baudib]

300+ posts in and you don't have an opinion on who might be a wild yet?

[baudib]

Wolf. Wtf is wild. Typing on phone

[wufwugy]

300+ posts in and you don't have an opinion on who might be a wild yet?

[baudib]

Ok Cersei gif is convincing. Wuf's a villager!

[baudib]

i like how i havent played a WW game in umm, many moons but baudib having read back through all the WW games has me pegged. I actually can't recall the last time i was a wolf but was told if i wanna play i gotta post more early game instead of lurking until day 5.

i dunno i am a pretty useless villager in the early game to about the middle mid game. because deciphering patterns and voting schemes doesn't come easy until you have something to work with. and the 'soulreading' people do on days 1 or 2 are usually a result of luck or someone made a massive mistake. tbh i think most everyone just posts noise until day 4ish but they way they vote is far more useful information when it comes down to it.

that being said people who claim to be able to insta spot wolves on day 1-2 are running good, suffer from dunning kruger or are gabe. gabe is in his own category of awesomeness

If we lose 2 villagers due to modkill game and vig shoots Nights 2 and 4 game could be over by Day 4.

If Bikes isn't going to be useful until then he's no big loss. People, let's do this.

[OngBonga]

wuf, drew getting subbed in like that bears no relevance whatsoever to his alignment. doober said he'd do it in alphabetical order, that means it's random unless you're gonna try and outguess the mod's motives, which is obviously stupid.

gator, when he's a villager... right. When wasn't he a villager?

[baudib]

BigRed got lynched Day 1 when he was the turncoat.

[OngBonga]

My god have you read literally every game?

[OngBonga]

gator's comment is strange though. I mean is he giving bigred a villager lean because bigred is drifitng by doing nothing on d1? That is far too sloppy for gator.

[baudib]

no not even close. maybe 6-7 of them. i read very fast. there were a couple where i went through and read the dead threads and wolf dens too. I've read them very recently so a lot of stuff is very fresh.

Gator is unnerving me more than a bit.

[GrayFoxxxx]

You're in luck. Wolves don't do this. Not only is it hard to plan for, but it's a very weak thing to plan anyways

I think it is something that newbs will pick up on though. So good job at showing how you're a villager

I can't really take your game experience too serious right now. If you are wolf like I think you are, it has no benefit to me.

I agree it would be a weak play on your part. But far from hard to plan. I pretty much described it in one post.

You didn't refute any of my other claims from the post you quoted. Seems like a habit of yours.

Can someone else give me some insight on this? Am I suffering from confirmation bias?

[GrayFoxxxx]

After re reading some of bikes posts, I got one good wolf read, but Im not sold on it.

[rong]

Gray Fox is an easy village spot, but I think baudib is too. He's playing super standard excited noob look at me I can read it all why won't you listen to me he's calling me a wolf which means I'm Defo right in thinking he's a wolf oh my god they might lynch me I must convince them I'm right kinda way.

No?

[BankItDrew]

Yo yo yo. Just read the PM now about me playing. This is me just checking in. It's nearly 3am so I need to go to sleep. I'll help out as best as I can in the morning.

Peace

[Keith]

Yo yo yo. Just read the PM now about me playing. This is me just checking in. It's nearly 3am so I need to go to sleep. I'll help out as best as I can in the morning.

Peace

nah ....don't self lynch

[baudib]

Welcome to the game Drew

worth noting: If Wuf is a wolf then him voting for BID does not make BID a clear villager.

[baudib]

Rescind Bikes

I decided I'm going to see who Rilla and Gator vote for, and pick one of them.

[OngBonga]

Gator is unnerving me more than a bit.

I decided I'm going to see who Rilla and Gator vote for, and pick one of them.

baudib must be a wolf. This just doesn't make any sense from a villager mindset.

[OngBonga]

lynch baudib

[rong]

Ong, how long ago was the first quote?

[OngBonga]

#312 on this page. No gator post between these two. Sorry I didn't quote properly, I'm half busy and couldn't be bothered to crop posts.

[OngBonga]

When I consider that he's also drifted from villager to wolf to villager with me for no apparent reason, I get the distinct impression that he's pulling wolf reads out of his arse. Which is of course what wolves do, and villagers don't.

[gabe]

im fine with lolzz, bid or baudib. its day 1 so might be nice to clean up lolzz or BID risk. baudib has posted a ton so we have lots of information if he dies. and its just day 1....

[OngBonga]

Optimal seer strat isn't a d4 claim, it's d3, assuming the angel is still alive.

I've only just actually looked at sample pms, and it turns out this is a very bad idea. Seer should not claim d3 because if the angel is protecting him, he is blocked. I'd prefer to let this just be forgotten, but I can't let it slide because maybe the seer took notice and didn't read the angel role pm either.

[bikes]

i am down with a lolzzz lynch if for no other reason than to prevent a mid or late game "my bad"

[rong]

Baudib, what do you say to ongs quotes above?

[GatorJH]

gator, when he's a villager... right. When wasn't he a villager?

look no further than the last game. Check out his early game involvement when he was the vig (iirc). He didn't shoot, but was still a special.

[GatorJH]

gator's comment is strange though. I mean is he giving bigred a villager lean because bigred is drifitng by doing nothing on d1? That is far too sloppy for gator.

No, it just means I think there can be better day 1 lynches. If he is still not active on day 3 I will be first in line.

Personally I would rather pick off an inactive rather than letting them get modkilled.

[GatorJH]

Gator is unnerving me more than a bit.

Welcome to WW at FTR.

[GatorJH]

lynching someone like baudib, who is posting a TON, on day 1 is just plain stupid. If he really is a wolf his amount of posting should make it easier to tie back to him once we find one.

Lolzzz is way more of an mid/end game risk than bigred so I am going with a lynch lolzzz.

[Keith]

I've only just actually looked at sample pms, and it turns out this is a very bad idea. Seer should not claim d3 because if the angel is protecting him, he is blocked. I'd prefer to let this just be forgotten, but I can't let it slide because maybe the seer took notice and didn't read the angel role pm either.

theres no way that wolf ong makes this post, as wolf ong would hope that seer did out on day3 especially having posted the optimal day 3 post earlier. Ong has to be a villager.

[OngBonga]

I agree with gator regarding baudib, I'm just pretty sure he's a wolf. But fine I can brescind.

But gator says yeah let's kill an inactive (but not bigred), which makes very little sense to me. Gator is all over bigred in early game pretty often. Bigred was active last game? That's news to me. And if he binks wolf, well I expect him to do as little as possible in early game because that's the standard he's set himself. It's not hard for him to mimic his village game, which makes him extremely dangerous. Gator knows all this. I'm surprised to see gator come to bigred's defence regarding a d1 lynch. Why is lolz a better lynch when lolz might get replaced?

lynch bigred

I at least want him to get in here and defend himself before I back off him.

[OngBonga]

I think the angel should seriously consider not doing anything tonight. Yes he might save the village from losing a player, but that's as likely as him blocking the seer. Whatever he decides tonight, he definitely should not protect the same person on n1 and n3, because if that's the seer, he's been blocked twice.

[Keith]

more important point ong ...lynching lolz as the deadline approaches is fine to stop a modkill but Gator actually doing it now is kinda sneaky in that a lollz wagon could get going and bring the day to a premature end and ensures that sweetclairerose gets modkilled. I think it was baudib who posted that she was away for the weekend or something like that and this Gator post seems to be an opportunistic post to ensure that she doesn't get to post before the day ends and then gets modkilled. it also means that neither of them can get replaced by any substitutes who volunteer

[OngBonga]

more important point ong ...lynching lolz as the deadline approaches is fine to stop a modkill but Gator actually doing it now is kinda sneaky in that a lollz wagon could get going and bring the day to a premature end and ensures that sweetclairerose gets modkilled. I think it was baudib who posted that she was away for the weekend or something like that and this Gator post seems to be an opportunistic post to ensure that she doesn't get to post before the day ends and then gets modkilled. it also means that neither of them can get replaced by any substitutes who volunteer

This is interesting. baudib and gator are topping my list at the moment.

[rong]

Keith, ong would still do that as a wolf, he's sneaky like that.

If he does flip wolf later on it should be noted that you tried give him the villager cred for what would then be proved to be an attempt to get it.

[rong]

I worded that so poorly.

[GatorJH]

more important point ong ...lynching lolz as the deadline approaches is fine to stop a modkill but Gator actually doing it now is kinda sneaky in that a lollz wagon could get going and bring the day to a premature end and ensures that sweetclairerose gets modkilled. I think it was baudib who posted that she was away for the weekend or something like that and this Gator post seems to be an opportunistic post to ensure that she doesn't get to post before the day ends and then gets modkilled. it also means that neither of them can get replaced by any substitutes who volunteer

Did neither you nor Ong see Mex's comment about not having any volunteers to use? If I really were doing this as a wolf you can bet it would have happened earlier and been much more subtle. Doesn't the day end in less than 24 hours? Does that really constitute an early bandwagon?

Your analysis is WAY off this game Keith so you are flying up my radar.

[OngBonga]

I know what you mean. And you're right, I reckon I could pull that off as a wolf. Thanks for believing in me dan. But I'm not gonna flip wolf so the link to keith if I do is irrelevant from my pov.

[OngBonga]

Did neither you nor Ong see Mex's comment about not having any volunteers to use?

Yeah I noticed this, it came before drew replaced whoever. I'd prefer to see people replaced than lynched without posting. lolz could be special. idk if he's read his role pm or not. We're told sweetie is gonna join us, so it's just one more person that needs to be replaced. I'm hopeful someone will take his spot.

[rong]

Has anyone pm'd Luco? He might play.

[baudib]

yeah not liking that Gator lynch so I'll probably go with Rilla's pick.

[GatorJH]

yeah not liking that Gator lynch so I'll probably go with Rilla's pick.

That's either lazy villager play or wolf play and I don't like either. Come up with your own plan.

[OngBonga]

That's either lazy villager play or wolf play and I don't like either. Come up with your own plan.

It's even more dodgy considering he was unnerved by you but was still willing to sheep you if he liked your vote. Dude is a wolf.

[baudib]

I think it's interesting that Gator didn't say anything about my plan until I said I didn't like his pick.

[baudib]

I was debating whether or not I should say this because of strat considerations, but I need to share this information since I'm at an advantage.

There's a decent chance that Scourrge, who wanted to play but had a scheduling conflict, will sub into the game if there's still 2 inactives tonight.

[baudib]

and don't try to read any ulterior motives into this, it's just pretty clear to me that having an information edge like that is unethical.

[rong]

That last post reads like you're not a villager.

[baudib]

weird, ok. you mean i wouldn't try to play ethically if i were a villager?

[rong]

Yeah, in hindsight you're right, but at the time I didn't like it.

[GatorJH]

I was debating whether or not I should say this because of strat considerations, but I need to share this information since I'm at an advantage.

There's a decent chance that Scourrge, who wanted to play but had a scheduling conflict, will sub into the game if there's still 2 inactives tonight.

In that case I will rescind lolzzz and lynch bigred

[GrayFoxxxx]

What is the vote count. I am willing to change my vote back to baud if the bandwagon is big. He has slowed town his posting since getting more wolf heat.

[baudib]

I'm confused, Gator why were you against Big Red lynch before but lynching him now?

Ong: Stop obsessing over me. You're losing focus. You'll be forced to do this eventually because I won't live to endgame, but reread the thread with thinking I'm a villager. A confused villager maybe, but a villager.

anyway, worst case scenario I'm a wolf and that's not really that bad, because I'll get lynched eventually and give you 2 confirmed villagers in Bikes and Wuf, both of whom will be better endgame players than me.

[baudib]

wolves will get my lynched day 2 or 3 or nom me nights 3-4 anyway.

[baudib]

What is the vote count. I am willing to change my vote back to baud if the bandwagon is big. He has slowed town his posting since getting more wolf heat.

Listen to Gator on this one. Even if he's a wolf, he'll say strategically sound things, like the fact that killing me Day 1 is stupid.

[Keybored]

Here's my tracker thus far (rescinds in parenthesis)...

Keybored: Bigred
Rilla: Wuf; (Wuf); _____
Gator: (Lolzzz); Bigred
Baudib: Bikes; (Bikes); ______
Grayfoxxx: (Baud); Wuf
OngBonga: (Wuf); (Bigred); (Baudib); Bigred
WufWugy: (Lolzzz); (Baudib); (Bigred); BID

There's a couple soft picks but this only tracks bolds.

Bigred should think about a defense right about now...

[baudib]

Who do you wanna lynch Keybored?

[rong]

I'm down with bigted. He's not turned up really, even if he does avoid modkill. If we get lolzzz replaced, that random chick modkilled and bigred lynched we start tomorrow with all time wasters completely out the way and the real game can begin.

[rong]

Lynch bigred

[dhubermex]

New Private Messages have been sent to Hoopy & Scourrge asking if they would like to substitute starting immediately. I will make a switch as soon as any sub is confirmed. Still no takers on previous sub-solicitation PMs.

[OngBonga]

anyway, worst case scenario I'm a wolf and that's not really that bad, because I'll get lynched eventually and give you 2 confirmed villagers in Bikes and Wuf, both of whom will be better endgame players than me.

This doesn't sit right with me at all. You're not talking from a villager pov here. As a villager, you would realise that your mislynch does nothing to help us determine bikes' and wuf's roles. Why are you even thinking about how a baudib wolf flip clears those two? If you're a villager, it shouldn't even enter your mind, because it's irrelevant.

I'm not obsessing over you baudib, it's just everything you post seems to come from a wolf minset, not villager. I can't just ignore that.

[OngBonga]

I should stop with the sloppy quoting. Incase that's not obvious, it's directed at baudib, a response to his #355

[baudib]

This doesn't sit right with me at all. You're not talking from a villager pov here. As a villager, you would realise that your mislynch does nothing to help us determine bikes' and wuf's roles. Why are you even thinking about how a baudib wolf flip clears those two? If you're a villager, it shouldn't even enter your mind, because it's irrelevant.

I'm not obsessing over you baudib, it's just everything you post seems to come from a wolf minset, not villager. I can't just ignore that.

You don't think that the voting record from my lynch gives you any information? huh

[Keybored]

Here's my tracker thus far (rescinds in parenthesis)...

Keybored: Bigred
Rilla: Wuf; (Wuf); _____
Gator: (Lolzzz); Bigred
Baudib: Bikes; (Bikes); ______
Grayfoxxx: (Baud); Wuf
OngBonga: (Wuf); (Bigred); (Baudib); Bigred
WufWugy: (Lolzzz); (Baudib); (Bigred); BID
Rong: Bigred

There's a couple soft picks but this only tracks bolds.

Bigred should think about a defense right about now...

I'm only seeing 11 ppl participating and 8 have voted at least once.
Of the 4 non-participants, 3 are about to be mod-dead; but then BID rolled in (still silent tho).
Bigred, despite being targeted numerous times, has not weighed in.
Let the mod kill or sub at will...
...and let Bigred swing

[OngBonga]

You don't think that the voting record from my lynch gives you any information? huh

Of course it does. But why are you thinking about what happens if you flip wolf? From your villager pov, it's 100% irrelevant. This is why I don't think it comes from a villager pov.

[baudib]

I'm framing it for you to look at it from a theoretical standpoint. BTW, the thing where I said "Ong wolfin' obviously" was a joke.

anyway, i'm being a distraction which is not my intent.

Lolzz, Keith, Rong probably villagers. Good chance of a wolf between GrayFoxxx and Keybored, don't get why anyone thinks GrayFoxxxx is villagery.

[OngBonga]

Why on earth have you given lolz a villager lean? Do you think that wolves would not allow themselves to replace out? Because that would indicate a very short memory, seeing as you replaced into a game last time as wolf. Can you not understand why I'm having a hard time seeing how you're a villager?

[baudib]

Keybored, you still need to vote.

I will go along with BigRed if it becomes inevitable just to end the day, he's likely not a special, but I still don't like it. I'd like to see if interest picks up in someone else.

[baudib]

Why on earth have you given lolz a villager lean? Do you think that wolves would not allow themselves to replace out? Because that would indicate a very short memory, seeing as you replaced into a game last time as wolf. Can you not understand why I'm having a hard time seeing how you're a villager?

The people I really don't like were into lynching lolzzz really early.

[Keybored]

Keybored, you still need to vote.

I will go along with BigRed if it becomes inevitable just to end the day, he's likely not a special, but I still don't like it. I'd like to see if interest picks up in someone else.

I lynched bigred in #237.

[baudib]

Ong, I would not have posted what I thought to be optimal default vig strat if I were a wolf. That's why I mentioned it in the signup thread and waited to see role before posting it.

[GatorJH]

I'm confused, Gator why were you against Big Red lynch before but lynching him now?

It wasn't that I was "against" a bigred lynch it was that I "preferred a lolzz lynch rather than a modkill (because it didn't look like we could get a substitute). Now that it looks like we have a substituted I am ok with leaving that role alive for today.

[OngBonga]

Ong, I would not have posted what I thought to be optimal default vig strat if I were a wolf. That's why I mentioned it in the signup thread and waited to see role before posting it.

This is a lie. Of course you'd share your vig idea, because you committed to it in the signup thread. Not doing so is going to draw attention to you. And besides, you'd still share the idea because you'd know you're not going to be amongst the low hanging fruit.

I've seen enough. No way is baudib a villager.

lynch baudib