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triple AK overs on Q river?

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  1. #1
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    Default triple AK overs on Q river?

    villain is very solid, 14-11 with 4% 3b over my sample. He has a very low fold to cbet (25%) and a slightly high W$WSD.
    He knows I'm FTR daven and likely also knows that i'm a stupid nit post-flop. I figure that I'm never ahead here and that to him i look exactly like QQ/88/TT/stubborn AA/KK when i bet this river. Thoughts on sizing?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button ($51.35)
    SB ($23.30)
    BB ($50)
    UTG ($53.25)
    MP1 ($25)
    Hero (MP2) ($58.65)
    CO ($38.15)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
    2 folds, Hero bets $1.75, 1 fold, Button calls $1.75, 2 folds

    Flop: ($4.25) 6, 8, 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets $2.75, Button calls $2.75

    Turn: ($9.75) 10 (2 players)
    Hero bets $6.50, Button calls $6.50

    River: ($22.75) Q (2 players)
    Hero bets $16,
  2. #2
    I think you played well and u r repping your range at best .Sizing is good too imo
  3. #3
    im guessing you got shoved on
  4. #4
    bikes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
    im guessing you got shoved on
    i was so close to doing it =/

    ?wut
  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
    im guessing you got shoved on
    any thoughts on my line? would you really shove as bluff vs a FR nit here, especially one with a low cbet/barrel %?
    Last edited by daven; 03-15-2011 at 08:36 PM.
  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    you look more like AA KK AQhh more than TT 88 QQ btw
    this is really interesting. Cheers for the food for thought.
    asking myself whether i would be setting up for stacks with sizing with the 88/TT. Asking myself a bunch of questions now in fact. Including why you would post this, and then delete it soon after
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    Asking myself a bunch of questions now in fact. Including why you would post this, and then delete it soon after
    thats how he rolls
  8. #8
    Most postflop frnits don't bet the river here with AA/KK against other regs, atleast from my experience. Their thought is something like "I'm never gonna get called/shoved with worse but small chance they might bet a bluff/busted draw etc." so they end up C/C. With that being said, if my only read was your a postflop nit, I would think either you have a boat or a not so strong hand that you will fold a shove to. But since you guys both know each other their might be a totally diff metagame going on. FWIW I like your bet sizing.
  9. #9
    Just check/fold the turn. People you know will go out of their way to dick with you and this is just spew considering he often doesn't fold a pair higher than 77 and has a lot of strong hands.

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