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[10z] That time I had quads

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  1. #1

    Default [10z] That time I had quads

    No reads on villain beyond the stats with ~50 hand sample

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


    BTN: 188 BB (VPIP: 17.07, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
    SB: 101.2 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 17.17, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 103)
    Hero (BB): 178.5 BB
    UTG: 81.9 BB (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 1.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
    MP: 124.8 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
    CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.57, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 53)


    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB


    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8


    fold, fold, CO raises to 2.2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB


    Flop: (4.9 BB, 2 players) 8 A 8
    Hero checks, CO bets 2.3 BB, Hero calls 2.3 BB


    Turn: (9.5 BB, 2 players) A
    Hero checks, CO bets 4.5 BB, Hero raises to 21 BB, CO calls 16.5 BB


    River: (51.5 BB, 2 players) 7
    Hero bets 28 BB




    Posting this hand to ask about the bet on the river but definitely up for comments on earlier streets and sizing, too.

    So I initially smashed the max button on the river as I can't see what he ever has here except for Ax. Then I thought, well, if he has Ax he will get the chips in for me no matter what so I never miss value vs that part of his range. Meaning if there's even the tiniest chance he turns up here with KK, QQ that he's too attached to, I could bet smaller togo for value vs that range.
  2. #2
    You have to shove this, otherwise you allow a reg villain to play perfectly. I'd expect any reg just to flat Ax against your sizing, as they'll know that shoving over your bet achieves nothing other than getting snapped off by quads, paying extra rake for a chop and getting folds from the rare amount of time you're bluffing. I just don't see worse than Ax calling either.

    Same applies to when you river a boat when an obvious flush draw comes in.
  3. #3
    Cool, how you think regs are playing to this sounds pretty on point - he did indeed flat behind with the Ace and I was pretty surprised but what you say makes perfect sense so I guess I just leveled myself.
  4. #4
    I'd give myself a nosebleed shoving this at river. If there's a danger villain finds a hero fold to an overbet, then just keep it reasonable. But this is 10nl, and after turn action, villain has an ace here always and is calling a river shove always.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    Why aren't we shoving this river? How exactly is anyone ever folding an Ax on the river?

    I mean it's even marginally nitty for him not to be raising the river with an Ax, but I suppose he see's no gain since it's not like you're playing this way with worse.

    This is a 100% shove all-day, not close imo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  6. #6
    Never worried about him folding Ax, but thought for sure he'd shove over with Ax and maybe there's some other random stuff he does fold. But yeah seems like I'm overthinking, so will shove all day from now on
  7. #7
    Your thought process isn't god-awful in the grand scheme of things, but you should be playing very exploitative against 10nl regs. Players at this level don't value raise rivers thin enough, and how we play our range overall (if we ever have bluffs, etc) is totally irrelevant once we isolate his range down to Ax.

    I tend to raise turn smaller because I figure I'm getting Ax's stack no matter how I play it, and I want to at least give him a chance to make a mistake with other parts of his range. I also play a lot of small ball on boards like these where villain doesn't have a ton of value combos but I want a cheap price because all of our bluffs are drawing dead against his continuing range, so it's nice to find spots where we're small-balling with the nuts (though I'm never bluffing here in this particular spot).

    I know I just said like two sentences ago that how we play our range overall is irrelevant, but I was talking about when he holds Ax specifically.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    How exactly is anyone ever folding an Ax on the river?
    If villain is facing an overbet shove at river, he's pretty much always chopping at best. Would you call Ax here if hero shoves this into you? You're facing a 75bb call to usually win 25bb and sometimes lose 100bb.

    Also, when hero overbets, maybe villain thinks this skews his range in favour of 88 rather than Ax, after all why would Ax make a bet that forces 8x to fold?

    I might conclude that it's not worth risking a further 75bb to reclaim 25bb. I doubt it for ten bucks though. Yes I know we should think in BI's, not dollars, but people do crazy shit when the stakes are low because the IRL financial burden is lower.

    My point is, I would not think Ax is an easy call facing a river shove here. At these stakes I probably call, but Ax isn't the nuts and shouldn't be treated as such.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    I totally treat 88 like the nuts here, obviously. I laugh when it loses.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    Putting aside whether it is correct or not, 10nl regs don't have the discipline to fold to 1 combo.
  11. #11
    I was watching an old Galfond video recently where a very similar spot came up. Before facing a river bet, he said "if villain shoves, we can start to think about folding". He also said shoving Ax would be a good play by villain as it gets hero off a chop sometimes. I realised at that point that I'm still a huge fish for not even contemplating folding, unless the overbet is so big relative to the pot that I'd end up losing money to rake in the best case scenario of a chop.

    Anyway, Galfonds old videos on YouTube are still worth watching in 2015.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    Putting aside whether it is correct or not, 10nl regs don't have the discipline to fold to 1 combo.
    Yeah I agree entriely. I can argue a solid case for folding Ax vs an overbet shove, but I'm not actually gonna go through with it at 10nl. I agree hero shoving river is correct here because people just aren't folding aces full for ten bucks.

    But I reject the idea that villain would then have an easy call. He has a sigh call.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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