when not to bet rivers - link to FR hand

[daven]

people talk a lot about when to bet rivers when checked to.
people often repeat "bet when worse hands will call or better hands will fold"
people often don't understand what they are repeating.

Cross-post here to a hand history in the Full Ring forum - the important part is the player read and the comment in bold. Comment here or there - especially if you don't understand the river check behind or why betting here would be a bluff

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...eg-t85665.html

[sarbox68]

I don't play FR, and I'm prolly missing something (which I often do...) as this seems pretty straight forward...

The FDs are still in his range when he calls your turn bet. You're guaranteed to take them at SD obv, as well as JJ. If you bet after his River check, I see one of 5 things happening... 1) he folds his busted draws, and you win what you would have, 2) he calls you with something that beats you, and you lose more than you would have, 3) he chkrai/shoves with KK,AA a set and you're stuck w/ a crappy decision on whether to play your QQ for stacks, 4) he bluff shoves and you are also stuck with a crappy decision or 5) he goes f-ck, my AA,KK aren't good anymore so I have to fold.

Out of those 5, 1 gets you nothing, I'm not sure 5 happens enough to be +EV, and 2,3 and 4 all suck for you unless you're already pre-disposed to stack off w/ QQ. All said, that means to me that betting the River here is almost exclusively to bluff out AA-KK, as doing so and having 1-4 happen would not be a positive expectation....

But then as I said, I'm prolly missing something or many somethings...

[daven]

Out of those 5, 1 gets you nothing, I'm not sure 5 happens enough to be +EV, and 2,3 and 4 all suck for you unless you're already pre-disposed to stack off w/ QQ. All said, that means to me that betting the River here is almost exclusively to bluff out AA-KK, as doing so and having 1-4 happen would not be a positive expectation....

But then as I said, I'm prolly missing something or many somethings...

you've got it exactly, hence the title of this thread! a lot of the beginners circle may not be as sophisticated as you are....

[sarbox68]

wtf... I got something right

guess this is what i get from reading all you regs' old posts. Something has to sink in eventually...

[LawDude]

A situation that comes up all the time in limit is a situation where you hit something like middle pair in late position and the weak play of the other players convinces you that they either are on draws or don't have anything. So you have the best hand. However, nothing good can come out of a river bet, because nobody's calling you with anything that doesn't beat you.

The tendency of many players is to think "I'm ahead, I better bet for value" rather than "I'm probably ahead, but I'm not getting any more value out of my hand if I am".

[sarbox68]

The tendency of many players is to think "I'm ahead, I better bet for value" rather than "I'm probably ahead, but I'm not getting any more value out of my hand if I am".

...and esp in the case of NL, risking getting blown off a winning SD hand by a bluff shove...

[xpaand]

This is something I need to work on. You did a really good job explaining that Sarbox. I got the same answer when I worked it out, but yours was way more thorough and I was missing a couple of things. Great post Daven!

[daven]

if there is any chance that villain's range is skewed towards 99/JJ more than KK/AA and will be calling 99/JJ then this situation becomes less simple

[adam.poker]

really a good topic.....
i just stopped at the right place.

Thank you

[Ragnar4]

So the combinations of AA-KK set and xT far outwiegh the JJ-99 combos for calling hands, versus the fact that any busted draws woulnd't be calling here anyway.. amirite?

[siltstrider]

The turn brings a FD and he gives you a free card with AA/KK? I don't get why he wouldn't fire two barrels with AA/KK. I think he has AA/KK less often than he has 99/JJ here, since I could see him checking the turn with a PP lower than TT.

If he would check the turn with an overpair then I think that makes JJ just as likely as KK or AA, since they're all overpairs.

If he thinks QQ is in your range by the river, I could see him checking JJ more often than KK/AA, just because that's another hand in your range that beats him. That would make JJ slightly likely than AA/KK, wouldn't it?

Basically, if he would two-barrel AA/KK more often than 99/JJ, 99/JJ is more likely here. If he would call with 99/JJ, then bet. If he wouldn't, don't bet. I don't think anyone but you can decide if he would call with 99/JJ, as that seems like a dependent thing that you would need reads for.

Why not a smaller bet? Like 2/5 - 1/2 pot that he has to look up? Too exploitable? If you never do it again, he'll never be able to exploit it, and you'll get to see what the hell he's playing this way.

[Micro2Macro]

Silstrider can you give us the definition of a value bet?

The FDs are still in his range when he calls your turn bet. You're guaranteed to take them at SD obv, as well as JJ. If you bet after his River check, I see one of 5 things happening... 1) he folds his busted draws, and you win what you would have, 2) he calls you with something that beats you, and you lose more than you would have, 3) he chkrai/shoves with KK,AA a set and you're stuck w/ a crappy decision on whether to play your QQ for stacks, 4) he bluff shoves and you are also stuck with a crappy decision or 5) he goes f-ck, my AA,KK aren't good anymore so I have to fold.

you forgot 6) he calls with AK because shit, you have a busted draw

[oskar]

Isn't that like the easiest b/f evar?
He has tons of worse shit that he will call a marginal v-bet with. He's never ever c/r as a bluff, and he's not taking that line with most hands that could have you beat.
I'd need some history / solid reads not to value bet here.
A value bet cannot be a big mistake... there is almost no way he can have Tx, and that would be a really really weired line with KK, AA.

The more I think about it: wtf r u doin'?

You say you have a big sample... well then you definitely have a player note on weird value lines.
If you don't... take more notes.

[tncatfish43]

i've found out the hard way that unless you are fairly strong you should check it,because most of the time you'll only get a call if you're beat