what can i beat.

[acg123]

Seat 4 is the button
Seat 2: MP (25).
Seat 3: CO (54.72).
Seat 4: Button (37.09).
Seat 5: SB (25.07).
Seat 6: Hero(BB) (51.04).
Player Hero received cards:
fold, fold, BTN raises (.75), SB folds, hero raises to ($2), BTN calls

*** FLOP ***: [ ] pot=$4

Hero bets $3, BTN calls

*** TURN ***: [ ] [] Pot=$10

Hero bets $5.50,BTN calls

*** RIVER ***:[ ] [] [] Pot=$21

Hero bets 10.50, BTN raises to 26.58 and is all in..
Hero says FML..


I feel like villain isn't going to show up here with KQ. his stats:
21/17 BTNSTL=38%, 3B=5.2%, F23B=57%,4B=9.5%, F2FlopCB=50%, F2TurnCB=33% (callturnCB=67%)

I have 2 notes on villain:
*called a 3bet with 67cc and shoved over cbet on 4c5cJh
*called a 3bet OTB with AA vs BB resteal, called 3 barrels on KT246

oh. the sample size is 1.3k hands.

[OngBonga]

If you folded, pat yourself on the back.

[OngBonga]

How does button raise river to $26+ when his starting stack is $25?

*edit - it's ok I see where the mistake is. There's a "BTN" and "button" in the list... this is the bigger stack of the two obv.

This line looks good to me, assuming river fold.

[Keith]

is river better to check call , very few 7's and 2's available and he could have loads of PP combos that he thinks beat the board 2 pair. checking also lets him bluff and you can then eveluate depending on bet sizing and timing.

[OngBonga]

What's he got in his range to bluff with? He has the occasional boat/quads, but usually it's KQs QJs QTs maybe JJ hero calling AK, idk but I think a lot of his hands that call a river bet will check back. He hasn't got us beat often, but he has us beat when he jams river like this.

[acg123]

yeah I tank folded..i think his range OTR is nutted. hes semi deep IP vs agro villain(hero). I expect him to play this way with QQ+ and 7x hands that float a cbet. I don't think villain is ever bluffing. its possible for him to have AQ I guess but even then I think I would be talking myself into a bad call.

[Keith]

my point is that the 10$ bet is spew. He's never calling with hands we beat and he's shoving when we are crushed on this board. If you're gonna bet 5$ does the same job but checking lets him bluff or bet small which you can then call so you get to see a showdownand if he shoves you saved yourself 10$.

[acg123]

Ok, so c/f river to shove, but call a $10< bet because thats what i would of bet anyway. Sounds legit and wont put me in such a tough spot

[OngBonga]

my point is that the 10$ bet is spew. He's never calling with hands we beat and he's shoving when we are crushed on this board. If you're gonna bet 5$ does the same job but checking lets him bluff or bet small which you can then call so you get to see a showdownand if he shoves you saved yourself 10$.

I think any Qx he has is making a crying call to a half pot river bet. He's floating flop 50% here, turn 33%. He's giving up turn I think with anything worse than top pair. Meh I think you're right, he probably tank folds his QT QJ if he has them, I suspect KQ is gonna make the call sometimes but yeah if we bet $6 maybe then he's gonna call all his Qx, and maybe any TT/JJ that didn't fold turn. c/c seems like missing value though because he'll check back plenty that he calls. There isn't that much beating us, so his range is weighted more towards stuff we want to see.