10k hands stats check-up

[Shizu]

Not sure if this would be more appropriate in the beginners circle, so move it if I'm in the wrong section.

In november I started playing 5€ NL again after almost 2 years.
I played the first 10k hands (9550 actually) and now I have to take a break. Holidays and I just got in a distance relationship, so I won't have a lot of time to play for a while.

I will start on a new site in january, again from 50€ (tired of technical issues with the current site), so I'd like to get some input about my stats. What's good, what needs some fixing, obvious leaks.

Here is the graph:




Here are the general and positional stats:



EDIT: added positional stats with 3-bets:




What I don't like, in no specific order:
- I want a higher overall VPIP. 20% is too tight, considering it's all 6-handed and a third of the hands are 5-handed
- range from the button should be increased
- 3bet% is ok at this level, but I think it would be way too predictable at higher levels, so I need to gradually increase it
- not sure about my fold to 3bet, but I feel it's too high and exploitable
- I fold my blinds to steal too much. When I'm on the button I pretty much raise with any two cards if I have players with these stats on the blinds, so I'm exploitable by any competent player.


Opinions?
Also, feel free to ask for other stats if necessary.

[daven]

nice work on the first 10k hands.
first comment, don't go making too many changes, the winrate is good and the game looks simple solid tag-nit.

it would be good if you could include 3b in the position report.
utg looks fine, so does utg+1, you should probably be stealing more from cutoff and 3betting more/stealing more from the button (i'm making assumptions on your 3b and steal % in each of these positions though).
3b and squeeze a bit more often from the blinds.
you're being a little too easy on villains post-flop, just cos they're cbetting on Q74 doesn't mean that your TT isn't good. That sort of thing. Yeah, i think you're folding a little too often to cbets.
Steal more. Defend your blinds occasionally.

What I don't like, in no specific order:
- I want a higher overall VPIP. 20% is too tight, considering it's all 6-handed and a third of the hands are 5-handed

why? you're winning at a decent clip. Is it cos you think a higher vpip is cooler or sexier? or is it cos you think that you could be making more money? i don't understand why you think this is too tight. This will increase or not as you make changes, don't make this the focus in and of itself though

range from the button should be increased

agree. How are you going to do this though? by stealing more? isolating more in lp vs limpers? 3betting more vs things like cutoff steals and isos?

3bet% is ok at this level, but I think it would be way too predictable at higher levels, so I need to gradually increase it

as you make changes to your game, your 3b% will increase. Your goal shouldn't be 'to increase 3b%', your goal should be to identify ways (spots/ranges) to broaden your 3b% profitably.

not sure about my fold to 3bet, but I feel it's too high and exploitable

yep, but it's better than calling too often vs 3bets which is what a lot of people do.

I fold my blinds to steal too much. When I'm on the button I pretty much raise with any two cards if I have players with these stats on the blinds, so I'm exploitable by any competent player.

agree. So what to do about it? identify hands that play well out of position vs wide ranges, and call with some of these. Identify ranges that are good to 3b vs wide ranges, and 3b with some of these. There. Sorted.

[Shizu]

why? you're winning at a decent clip. Is it cos you think a higher vpip is cooler or sexier? or is it cos you think that you could be making more money? i don't understand why you think this is too tight. This will increase or not as you make changes, don't make this the focus in and of itself though

First reason: I often regret not playing certain hands. Not because I go "OMG I folded 4-8 and the flop is 5-6-7" but because I see so much stupid shit it's unbelievable. And I could exploit it for €€€, with a little bit of extra courage.
Second reason, possibly a very dumb one: fun. I'm not playing to buy food. I play because it's fun and MAYBE in a distant future I'll get some extra €€€ on top of it. Gradually adding more hands to my ranges would provide more fun.

agree. How are you going to do this though? by stealing more? isolating more in lp vs limpers? 3betting more vs things like cutoff steals and isos?

Definitely stealing more.
Also, I'll probably try to gradually increase my 3-bet with marginal hands that play well against all the Kx Qx garbage they play at this level.

as you make changes to your game, your 3b% will increase. Your goal shouldn't be 'to increase 3b%', your goal should be to identify ways (spots/ranges) to broaden your 3b% profitably.

My main concern here is to avoid being too predictable. Probably not a significant issue at this level. And probably it will change naturally when I'll have to adapt to everyone folding to my 7% 3bet.

yep, but it's better than calling too often vs 3bets which is what a lot of people do.


agree. So what to do about it? identify hands that play well out of position vs wide ranges, and call with some of these. Identify ranges that are good to 3b vs wide ranges, and 3b with some of these. There. Sorted.

I'll start working on these two.

[griffey24]

Obviously the sample size is small so it's hard to draw too many conclusions.

The most obvious to me appear to be:
-Tight on button, could open wider here for sure.
-Tight on BB. It appears as though you are either mostly 3b from BB or folding? You're likely not defending nearly enough on BB.

If you loosen up in the BB and BTN that'll help your overall VPIP a fair bit.

[MadMojoMonkey]

My main concern here is to avoid being too predictable. Probably not a significant issue at this level. And probably it will change naturally when I'll have to adapt to everyone folding to my 7% 3bet.

Being predictable is not necessarily a negative thing.
Playing straight-forward ABC poker is predictable. E.g. opening a tight range from UTG, and a wider range from the BTN is predictable.
Being predictable doesn't mean being exploitable. More often than not, being predictable is a way to avoid being exploited.

If everyone is folding to your 7% 3-bet, that doesn't necessarily mean to widen your 3-bet range, you can keep the 7% 3-bet, but instead of 3-betting for value, you weight your 3-bet range to include weak suited Aces (semi-bluffs). You are still 3-betting the same amount. People are still folding. EXCEPT, now they're folding to AXs instead your not-quite-biggest monsters. (Always raise the top of your range. Always raise your monsters.)

When they don't fold, you are either holding a big PP/AK or you're holding AXs. You can play either part of your range in a straightforward manner.

So by NOT changing your 'predictable' 7% 3-bet stat, you've altered what that prediction means.

***
Lets say one of the opponents at the table is calling all 3-bets. How do you respond?
You stop playing a polarized 3-bet range against this one guy and you play a merged range against him.

You are still 3-betting 7% of hands, but now you're leaving out the AXs and you're back to 3-betting TT+ and double broadway type hands.

By changing which range you use against different opponents, you hide behind that predictable 7% stat.

***
Does this make sense?

[Shizu]

Yes, makes sense. I had to look up something about polarized and merged ranges.

I also switched site to pokerstars.it and there seems to be way better players. More aggression pre-flop, more 3-bets, more interesting gameplay overall. I'll probably report again with 10k new hands.