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Probability that I'm a Winner

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  1. #1
    !Luck's Avatar
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    Default Probability that I'm a Winner

    What's the probability of me being a winning 1/2 player considering that I've played 80 hours of poker and won $1k in the last year. Or is this way too little data to tell.
  2. #2
    80 hours at 50 hands an hour is 4000 hands (over estimate if anything)

    $1k is 500bb, so that's 500/40 which is 12.5bb/100

    Assuming 60bb/100 std dev, there is a 9.38% chance you are running at your observed win rate over that sample whilst being a break even player.

    Assuming 80bb/100 std dev, there is a 16.125% chance you are running at your observed win rate over that sample whilst being a break even player.


    If you lower that sample size to 2.5k hands (31ish hands per hour which is more realistic for live iirc)

    Using the same criteria above we get 14.88% and 21.73%.


    Which doesn't really answer your question.
  3. #3
    !Luck's Avatar
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    it does. i can be 80% confident that im better than break even.

    im thinking of taking a break from the real world to chill out on my friends farm. theres a card room 40 min away that i thought i could play at. if i can win $10/hr and play 20 hours a week i can cover expenses without hitting my savings.

    just in the dreaming phase.

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