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  1. #1
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Default For Chopper: Ragnar4's stupid chart theory.

    Okay. Before you read any further in this post Grab a piece of paper. But a big Cross in the middle of it. On the top of the paper write correct, on the bottom of the paper write incorrect. On the left side of the paper write bad, and on the right side of the paper write good. We now have a way to represent every poker decision you’ll ever make. But how? What does the good/correct quadrant represent? How can something be incorrect but good?
    I get bad/incorrect, but can you give me any glaring examples of bad/correct?

    I think first, I need to start with David Sklansky’s Theory of Poker.

    “Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time your opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have if they could see your cards, you lose.

    Quite an eyeful I know but I need you to, read it, over and over again, take it in, don’t move on until you drink in everything that this paragraph is really trying to communicate to you, because to be honest, there’s a lot.

    If this is the first time you’ve ever seen this paragraph, it really is a “Like, duh, obviously” moment. I thought to myself when I read this paragraph for the first time “No shit Shirlock, if he saw I had AA he would never call, and if I saw he had AA I would never call.” This paragraph in itself describes EXACTLY why reads are important. Sadly, reads are not 100% you can’t look at an opponents action and put them exactly on one hand with any sort of accuracy. I soulread every once in a while, we all do, but not nearly enough to base our livelihood on narrowing your opponent down to one hand and one hand only. Which is why you have to look into the paragraph a little deeper, to really get into the meat and potatoes of what I’m trying to describe with this “theory.

    If you take a close look at the graph, you’ll notice there are 4 quadrants devided up between 2 separate sets of qualifiers.

    Correct/Incorrect

    Good/Bad

    In attempting to describe this theory, a lot of people want to amalgamate good and correct. You simply cannot combine the two, because it’s just not an applicable comparison. Lets break this down a little bit further.

    Correct/Incorrect:
    This is by far the hardest concept to grasp, because correct and incorrect can only be measured by whether or not you are forcing your opponent to make a mistake with your actions. This is where we make our money, when someone else makes a mistake. Situations in limit where correct and incorrect analysis come into play are derived from calculations of EV, If your EV is + and your opponents EV is – the action is a correct action. If your EV is + and your opponents EV is +, it is incorrect, along with both players sharing EV - , or if you control the minus EV while your opponent has the plus EV it is also incorrect.
    In situations where there are more than 2 players in the pot, (which is like every other hand in limit), as long as one player not wearing your shirt is making the minus EV decision, then your decisions are correct.

    Lets look at some examples of correct and incorrect decisions

    1 Calling a gutshot with 75o to the nuts on a rainbow board with only 5 bets in the pot is incorrect. Your opponent is +EV with his bet, you are –EV with your call.

    2 Raising from the button, with the intent to cap as long as 2 other players come along, with 9 or more clean outs on the flop against a first position donk bet and 3 other callers.
    (IE 4 players in the pot, SB bets everyone calls to you, you raise) Correct, because you’re bloating the pot with overlay.

    3 Betting 1 bb into a 100 bb pot when your opponent is on a flush draw is incorrect, because your bet isn’t causing him to make a mistake (don’t stop reading here, get to the bad/good part, because this is incorrect, but good)

    4 Calling 1 BB into a 15BB pot, with a bluff catcher, because you estimate (very correctly) that your opponent is bluffing 8% of the time in this spot on the river, this is correct

    5 Checking with the intention to raise from 1st position on the flop with middle pair because the guy on the button is very aggressive, and you want to give a gutshot straight draw immediately to your left bad odds to draw in this 10sb pot. Correct, because you’re cutting the odds in half with the check raise for the guy to draw to his gutshot, even though your putting more money in the pot as an underdog, you’re also buying yourself possible outs in some situations the swing in the chance your opponent will fold + the outs you’ll buy yourself = more than your fair share of the pot

    Bad/good is the direct measurement of whether or not you would have made the same decision, or your opponent would have made the same decision had they known what you had before you showed down.
    (Examples shown are continuations of previous examples)

    1) You folded your gutshot, but if you had known that your opponent had 23 of clubs and was bluffing while you had 75 and were drawing to an even better hand, you made a bad play, by folding here. So your play was “correct/bad” Ironically had you called, it would have been “incorrect/good”

    Obviously at this point, your estimation of what your opponent has, is extremely important as to your evaluation of your opponents hand. Seriously though, who looks at a 75o gutshot hand and says, “I may be ahead here”?

    2) If your opponents knew that you were only trying to bloat the pot here, only one guy would be re-raising, and everyone else would be folding. So, your “Flop-Doubler” here is correct, because no-ones folding for one more bet in this huge pot, and the other guy may even pop you back. Good play because other people are playing opposite of the way they should be playing in this instance “Correct/Good”
    3) You’re still ahead, and if he doesn’t catch his flush, you win the monster pot. So this play is “incorrect/good.” Obviously if he does catch, and you make your crying call, this would extend into “correct/bad” Because you called down with the worst hand.
    4) In this instance, your crying call caught the bluff, you made the same play you would have made, had you seen your opponents hand good play so we have “correct/good”
    5) Turns out the guy you were trying to force out with your check raise, the one you were certain was on a gutshot… actually had a set of fours. You wouldn’t have made this play had you seen your opponents hand… Incorrect/Bad.

    Ok.. So now that we have a clear understanding of the 4 types of plays you can make at the table. So how do we apply it?

    We have to understand that every, and I mean EVERY play we want to make, will be in the good/correct quadrant of the chart you just drew. That’s where the maximum value comes from in all of our plays, we’re making the same play we would have if we could see our opponents hand AND he’s making a mistake countering our actions.

    We do this by picking our decision, looking at the size of the pot, and asking ourselves, is this good/correct? Or is it bad/correct? Good/incorrect? Finally is it Bad/Incorrect?
    Is there anything I can do to get it up to Good/Correct? Is there any way for me to elevate it to the next level above the one I’m at if I can’t get it to good/correct?

    I hope, this helps clarify limit poker for you just a little bit more, and helps you recognize some of the decisions that you’ve been making in the past. Certainly limit is a game of pressing your tiniest edges, and once this idea occurred to me, and I mulled it over, my limit game improved immensely. Because I was always looking for the best play in any situation
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  2. #2
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    "3 Betting 1 bb into a 100 bb pot when your opponent is on a flush draw is incorrect, because your bet isn’t causing him to make a mistake (don’t stop reading here, get to the bad/good part, because this is incorrect, but good)"

    not betting the draw is also incorrect
  3. #3
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    wow.. did you even try to absorb the definition of correct/incorrect versus good/bad?

    correct and incorrect is only defined as whether or not your opponent makes a mistake countering your actions.

    1 Correct/Good actions are best
    2 Incorrect/Good actions are 2nd best
    3 Correct/Bad actions are 3rd best
    4 Inocrrect/Bad actions are worst.

    Not betting in that spot is correct/bad, but Incorrect/good is better, which is to bet that spot.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  4. #4
    Guest
    Not betting in that spot is incorrect/bad

    because not betting is also giving him an EV+ play of checking

    so either way he doesn't make a mistake
  5. #5
    Betting 1bb into a 100bb pot when you hold anything and your opponents are drawing is always correct - because you are ahead when you make the bet.

    Him raising you would also be correct, because he owns a big chunk of that pot. 3betting him would be correct, especially with others. Etc. Etc.

    Folding a 100bb pot with any hand at all would be incorrect/bad almost every time, IMO. But I don't know if I've seen any 100bb pots in Limit, and if you have a garbage hand in a 100bb pot you've already made a ton of incorrect/bad decisions.
  6. #6
    Chopper's Avatar
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    ok, so there are obviously some things that we can pick apart. but, lets focus on the "concept," as a whole for now.

    i asked for this clarification because the idea intrigued me to, hopefully, clarify a systematic way of focusing on forcing our opponents to make mistakes as opposed to looking at our cards and thinking, "hmmm, a straight beats all but the boat here, so i bet/raise because he could hold lots more that i beat." granted, this still comes down to hand reading/range assignments, but it may be a bit of a twist conceptually, and therefore a shortcut, in our growth processes.

    what will help me a bit more, i think, will be to post some HHs and see what decisions fell into what categories?

    but, i am dizzy right now, and need to grasp this a bit harder. i have some questions and need to organize them before i ask away.
    LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

    Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
  7. #7
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    ok. so here's a hand i found that should be easy. but, i have a question at the end...

    lol. you mean like this for calling down too much, too. another with a 0 AF thru 53 hands...

    0.02/0.04 Limit Holdem
    9 players
    Converted at weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($0.91)
    UTG+1 ($0.13)
    MP1 ($0.48)
    MP2 ($0.52)
    Hero ($1.25)
    CO ($0.87)
    BTN ($0.72)
    SB ($0.44)
    BB ($1.42)

    Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 9 players) Hero is MP3
    2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, 3 folds, MP1 calls

    Flop: (7.5 SB, 3 players)
    MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, MP1 folds

    Turn: (4.7 BB, 2 players)
    Hero bets, CO calls

    River: (6.7 BB, 2 players)
    Hero bets, CO calls

    Final Pot: 8.8 BB
    CO shows:
    Hero shows:

    Hero wins 8.5 BB ( won +5.0 BB )
    CO lost 3.5 BB
    MP1 lost 1.0 BB


    i will do this inside the HH from now on, but for the "maiden voyage," i wanted it to be clear.

    preflop...MP1 limps. since we never see his cards, we dont know if this is either correct or incorrect, but i assume that if a decision is "correct/+EV," it should be raised, not called/limped? so we may call it a quadrant 4 because its incorrect to limp, but he would have folded if he knew i had bullets?

    Hero raises. obviously, a quadrant 1 play.

    CO calls two cold. well, i doubt calling two cold is ever +EV, so this has to be a 4, also.

    FLOP...MP1 checks. no decision, technically, made here.

    Hero bets. thats a 1.

    CO calls. thats a 4 because he has no equity against AA and if he saw them, he folds to my bet.

    TURN...Hero bets. another 1.

    CO calls. another 4.

    RIVER...Hero bets. another 1.

    CO calls. another 4.

    so, in black and white, this seems easy. but, where i start to go gray is when "odds" come into play.

    on flop, villain is getting 8.5:1. how does that change my quadrant decision? he has odds to draw to his two pair. and, he may if he knew i was on AA because it gives him better implieds, too. so, does that change me to quadrant 2 (incorrect/good)? and, does that change him to quadrant 3 (correct/bad)?

    on river, i am giving him 7.7:1 on a call. he cant think i am bluffing 13% of the time on this board, so does that keep it a quadrant 4 decision for him?

    still river...however, he may feel i am betting a weaker hand by putting him on a missed draw (not at these stakes..lol). therefore, he may think he is actually good. if he thinks he is good, he should raise me since that is the quadrant 1 decision, and forces me into a quadrant 3 decision (correct/bad) because i have to call based on the pot odds?

    lol. still glad you made this thread?
    LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

    Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
  8. #8
    My head hurts
  9. #9
    Chopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    My head hurts
    actually, mine too. but, since youre here, spenda, does this "theory" hold water? and, is it worth diving into?
    LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

    Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
  10. #10
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Ok.

    Since we know what our opponent has. Lets evaluate his position and classify his play.

    Pre-flop. Suited one gappers play best from CO or Button. They need volume pots, and really can't stand a raise from a better position. So limping from MP is a Bad play. But remember you're HIS opponent. So we have to put ourselvs in his shoes. Is HIS limp making your Raise with AA incorrect? No. So his flop limp is Incorrect/Bad. Your raise with AA is Correct/Good.

    What CO has we both know that you should never, ever call anything against aces, so we know it's bad, but is he forcing you or MP1 to make a mistake? No. In FACT he's allowing MP1 to peel to the turn, so it's hugely incorrect/bad.

    MP1 now has sufficient odds to see the flop, so his action here is incorrect/Good. He isn't forcing either of you to make a mistake, but his odds dictate not folding here.

    FLOP
    MP1's check doesn't force you to make a mistake. Because you still have a hand that crushes most of his range. Your bet is Incorrect, because you aren't making your opponent make a mistake by betting, but good, because you're ahead. So the Bet is incorrect/good. (A check here is incorrect/bad).

    CO's Call, is Incorrect he isn't forcing you to make a mistake, but Good because he has odds to see of of his outs.

    Finally Turn and River are both incorrect/bad.

    This hand is very black and white.. and almost seems monatonous to a player. What I'm seeing here though, is that calling is rarely ever correct, but sometimes it's good, and sometimes it's bad.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  11. #11
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by arborman
    Betting 1bb into a 100bb pot when you hold anything and your opponents are drawing is always correct - because you are ahead when you make the bet.

    Him raising you would also be correct, because he owns a big chunk of that pot. 3betting him would be correct, especially with others. Etc. Etc.

    Folding a 100bb pot with any hand at all would be incorrect/bad almost every time, IMO. But I don't know if I've seen any 100bb pots in Limit, and if you have a garbage hand in a 100bb pot you've already made a ton of incorrect/bad decisions.
    Actually, if he's on a draw even if he has odds to draw, him raising would be incorrect/bad. He has lower equity in the pot and that's spew. You're not folding your pair and you wouldn't fold when the draw came in anyway, so there's no need to disguise your hand.

    In fact, by your definition the ONLY correct/good decision in this spot would be a check/raise because you're forcing him to put in another bet he didn't want to put in.
  12. #12
    Chopper's Avatar
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    i see the flop bet differently, and that is where your theory is confusing to me.

    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    990 games 0.031 secs 31,935 games/sec

    Board: Td 7d 2d
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 86.263% 86.26% 00.00% 854 0.00 { AdAs }
    Hand 1: 13.737% 13.74% 00.00% 136 0.00 { 9s7s }


    here we lay 8.5:1, which is 12%. so, villain is correct to call, provided he reads me right. but, my bet is WAY EV. i receive 86% of every bet that goes in to the pot on the flop here. so, how can betting be incorrect? it may be bad, because it doesnt force a mistake, but it is most definitely correct, right?
    LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

    Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
  13. #13
    Guest
    I guess by his definition it's good/incorrect because if he saw your cards he'd call
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    Actually, if he's on a draw even if he has odds to draw, him raising would be incorrect/bad. He has lower equity in the pot and that's spew. You're not folding your pair and you wouldn't fold when the draw came in anyway, so there's no need to disguise your hand.
    I suppose it depends on how many others there are in the pot. If he's on a draw to the nuts and there are at least 3 of us, he's right to raise. It's not spew if your 1bb bet increases your equity by more than 1bb.

    In fact, by your definition the ONLY correct/good decision in this spot would be a check/raise because you're forcing him to put in another bet he didn't want to put in.
    That would be the best, especially if there was a chance he or others would fold (unlikely). He'd still be right to call since he has about 35% equity in the pot - or 3bet if there are lots of us (which there would have to be to get a 100bb pot).

    That said, the example is a bit skewed by the size of the pot you used. I don't think I've ever seen a 100bb pot (in LHE), though I have seen a few that reached 50-60bb.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Chopper
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    My head hurts
    actually, mine too. but, since youre here, spenda, does this "theory" hold water? and, is it worth diving into?
    The theory isn't a new one, and yes, it is fundamentally correct in a sense.

    However I don't necessarily see it's application and I think it's greatly complicating a simple game that is LHE.

    The connotation that comes from the word "incorrect" is throwing most of you off. There is correct and then there is maximizing EV.

    Like on the draw some of you brought up, you opponent is not making a mistake for drawing with such a good price, however you are making a mistake if you are not putting in as many bets possible on each street where your equity outweighs that of your opponent's.
  16. #16
    Chopper's Avatar
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    ok. if we are only talking in terms of forcing mistakes, i can see where the flop bet is incorrect. but, that is where i got confused...right where ragnar said i would.

    so, if its +EV for me AND +EV for him, its incorrect because its correct for him to call. but, its still our best option because we cant force him to make a mistake?

    so, just because its an incorrect decision, doesnt mean its the wrong decision?
    LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

    Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
  17. #17
    Basically your play is good but his play is not bad/wrong
  18. #18
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by Chopper
    ok. if we are only talking in terms of forcing mistakes, i can see where the flop bet is incorrect. but, that is where i got confused...right where ragnar said i would.

    so, if its +EV for me AND +EV for him, its incorrect because its correct for him to call. but, its still our best option because we cant force him to make a mistake?

    so, just because its an incorrect decision, doesnt mean its the wrong decision?
    yeah, I don't like the terms correct/incorrect
    it's basically whether the play is correct or incorrect for your opponent rather than you

    so you're only "correct" if you force a mistake
    but sometimes it's useful to view it in that light, especially way ahead/way behind situations where you force your opponent to select the correct action by betting, whereas you sometimes make him select the wrong action by checking
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Chopper
    ok. if we are only talking in terms of forcing mistakes, i can see where the flop bet is incorrect. but, that is where i got confused...right where ragnar said i would.

    so, if its +EV for me AND +EV for him, its incorrect because its correct for him to call. but, its still our best option because we cant force him to make a mistake?

    so, just because its an incorrect decision, doesnt mean its the wrong decision?
    HU in a pot like that you are right to bet and raise, or checkraise, and he is right to bet and call while drawing (bet to semibluff and to maybe induce a fold, call a bet or a raise if he knows you won't fold). If you are ahead, you are almost always right to bet and raise - because you have tons of equity and there are others padding the pot for you. If there are more than 5 in the pot, he is also right to raise, otherwise he is right to call. Depending on relative position, a checkraise might be the best option for either of you as well - especially if you can face some players with 2 or more cold and induce some folds. A fold is always wrong for both players in a Very Large Pot (and anyone else with a piece of the hand) - at least until the river, when we know what happened with the draw.

    So whether a bet, a call or a checkraise is good/bad or correct/incorrect depends heavily on how many people there are in the pot.

    It isn't mathematically possible to get a 100bb pot on the flop (isn't 20bb the max pot size going into the flop?), so I assume we are talking about the turn (which still only gives us 40bb). Even still, any pot over ~12BB pretty much overwhelms most of the microthin odds calculations we need to make in most hands, moving us into Ed Miller's 'big pot' category where we probably have enough equity and now want to maximize our chances of winning.

    Tptk Heads Up vs a flush draw in a Very Large Pot on the turn it is best to bet, raise and cap to make him pay to draw while you are way ahead - you 'own' ~82% of the chips that go into the pot, so get as many of yours and your opponents' chips in there as you can while maximizing your chances of drawing opponents folding. Betting and raising is good/correct always in this situation.*

    Flush draw vs. any pair in any pot over about 6bb isn't making a mistake to call either, since they 'own' ~18% of the pot (which is worth more than the price of a call). If a raise would increase opponent's equity by more than the value of his raise - i.e. a 1BB raise increases the pot size by 6BB and he 'owns' 18% of those chips (which is 1.08bb), then it is worthwhile to raise and a good/correct decision - though marginal. If that raise might induce folds that increase his chance to win the pot without a showdown, that is also of value, though harder to measure and depends on reads. Otherwise calling on the draw is the good/correct decision as he is paying 1BB for his equity of ~1.06bb in a (6bb) pot.

    Obviously calls this marginal are subject to significant variance, though they would pay off in the long run (which is what LHE is all about, IMO). Given the chance of making a hand and still losing (i.e. flush completes a boat at least a small percentage of the time, which can be costly) it is probably better to have a slightly bigger pot - like 8 or 9 BB- before calling that kind of draw.

    *Though of course it sucks when that third fekkin heart falls on the river, especially when it happens repeatedly in the same session.:P
  20. #20
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chopper
    ok. if we are only talking in terms of forcing mistakes, i can see where the flop bet is incorrect. but, that is where i got confused...right where ragnar said i would.

    so, if its +EV for me AND +EV for him, its incorrect because its correct for him to call. but, its still our best option because we cant force him to make a mistake?

    so, just because its an incorrect decision, doesnt mean its the wrong decision?
    THIS!
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes

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