Whoa dude what's with the river

[BorisTheSpider]

500+ hands on villain. 21/17 with 5.5% 3bet, 3bets the SB vs a button open 17%. Generally seems a typical reg.

WTF can he possibly check the turn with, have me check behind, then check the river again (risking it just checking down) then jam for value?

Any thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $11.68 (116.8 bb)
SB: $15.34 (153.4 bb)
BB: $21.09 (210.9 bb)
UTG: $19.12 (191.2 bb)
MP: $13.53 (135.3 bb)
CO: $6.92 (69.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, SB raises to $0.70, BB folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) T Q 8 (2 players)
SB bets $0.85, Hero calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.20) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.20) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $13.79 and is all-in

[tiltingdonkey]

AT, A8 and KJ are all plausible hands, we have more than enough equity so I station this off.

Just starting to play again though so I maybe off by a mile.

edit: I bet turn though.

[OngBonga]

Yeah turn is standard b/f imo.

This river shove is the nuts, fold. I doubt very much he shoves A8 or AT here. I misread the hand at first though so it's not as unlikely as I first thought, but yeah I still think this is KJs more often than not.

[rong]

Yeah bet the turn dude.

[tiltingdonkey]

Curious as to why you don't think AT and A8 are shoving here?

Here's what I think about the hand:

For a guy with a 17% 3bet from sb both hands are in his range. Cbetting the flop is standard. We show weakness on the turn (as most regulars do with overcards as I have observed at 10NL, so this is mere speculation). As for the river, he may very well think that the A hit our range, and he thinks he can get value from AK(?), AJ or AT depending on how he views us, thus the shove.

Again my thought process here might be flawed so someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thinking about it, AK might even be in his shoving range, because of the fact that we under-repped our hand and he's not putting us on AQ.

[BorisTheSpider]

Turn check was because the flush draw came, and I got a timing tell from him and suspected I was going to get shoved on if I bet the turn.

FWIW, and I may be wrong, but I agree with Ong - I think it's KJss and I suspect I was gonna get the flushdraw shoved on the turn if I'd bet, why he checked the river though I don't know, but I do think it's the nuts.

[tiltingdonkey]

Boris, how do you think villain views you? If he doesn't pay attention to you then I agree that this the nuts 100% of the time, but if he does pay attention, is he capable of shoving strong but not nutty hands?

[Cobra_1878]

Betting the turn here 100%. Checking behind because a FD came in is insane, if he shoves on you with a FD on the turn (based on your read) then you snap it off so fucking fast.

As played, fold river.

[Savy]

Curious as to why you don't think AT and A8 are shoving here?

Here's what I think about the hand:

Whether villain is shoving AT or A8 I don't know, but the reason shoving them is bad is because worse folds and better calls when we do shove. Hero's betting range contains hands that we beat so they are lovely to have in our calling range here.

I'd be inclined to call this just because the only hand that really makes any sense to play this way is KJ. There's a chance villain is wrongly value shoving two pair like AT or A8, very few sets get played this way so not betting the turn with them would be bad. And he has overcards with flush draws in which he could be turning into a bluff or weak pairs.

I mean your range looks so weak here, I wouldn't even say AQ looks like it is in your range, that shoving is just silly to extract value. So villains range is probably going to be really polarised and as we are at the top of our range with lots of blockers, block AA, QQ, AQ etc this is definitely a hand we should be calling with.

Or that's completely levelling yourself and he just does that with the nuts. Who knows.

When he 3bets what type of range do you put him on? Do you think he's polarised or is he 3betting linear? Makes a pretty big difference imo. If he's polarised I wouldn't be surprised to not see KJ in his range.

[BorisTheSpider]

Betting the turn here 100%. Checking behind because a FD came in is insane, if he shoves on you with a FD on the turn (based on your read) then you snap it off so fucking fast.

Well yeah, if I could be sure it was a flush draw getting shipped.

Board: Tc Qs 8h 3s

Hand 0: 61.255% { QQ, TT, 88, 33, AsKs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As2s, KsJs }
Hand 1: 38.745% { AhQh }

[BorisTheSpider]

Boris, how do you think villain views you? If he doesn't pay attention to you then I agree that this the nuts 100% of the time, but if he does pay attention, is he capable of shoving strong but not nutty hands?

Hmm, well, he's one of the regs I have the most hands on - overall, as to my impression of him, I'd say I think he's pretty solid, probably one of the best regs at my limit (but of course it's tough to say at zoom when you don't see much shown down etc.). We haven't tangled too much before this, but I think he probably sees me as solid, very similar to his own style, and capable of folding.

His sizing makes not much sense though. I don't think he expects to get looked up light here, and as Savy said, I'm really under-repped, so I don't think it makes much sense for him to massively overbet anything for value because I don't think he's expecting me to be as strong as I am so I don't think he can really expect to get called too often.

On the other hand, a bluff just doesn't make much sense because of his sizing - I mean, I know people pull off overbet bluffs like that, but I don't think it every really happens at microstakes (at least not from a solid reg, maybe a maniac).

His sizing just seems so wierd - when I wake up on the river, I'd expect him to make it maybe $7 with the nuts to extract some value, I am still scratching my head about it, because I just can't see what he ships here, but I am defaulting to the normal microstakes truism that if someone suddenly massively overbet ships it in on the turn or river, it's always the nuts.

EDIT: I've just looked in my database, and this is the first time I've seen him c/r the river. I think he's pretty agro and capable of making moves, but I'm not sure he's fooling around here.

[Cobra_1878]

I'd be inclined to call this just because the only hand that really makes any sense to play this way is KJ.

That's the only hand that makes sense, it beats our hand, and you want to call?

And he has overcards with flush draws in which he could be turning into a bluff or weak pairs.

A c/r shove on the river is almost never a bluff at 10NL, especially from this type of villain.

[Savy]

That should read the only value hand that makes sense not the only hand that makes sense. That was the whole point, there's plenty he could bluff with here but very little value wise. Suppose 9Js could make sense too but I'd be betting the turn with that too as I think would most people as we hardly crush the board.

And I did say at the end of my post that it may just be levelling yourself, but if we are going to call AQ really is the hand to do it with, especially when we aren't blocking the flush draw at all.

[griffey24]

5.5% 3b reg isn't generally 3betting KJ that often, so he won't have many KJ.

DEFINITELY bet turn, this hand is pretty much the top of your range, given how coordinate the board is. (ie: you'd raise sets / two pairs on the flop).

As played I'm snap calling. His line makes no sense. His range also has more Ax in it than yours, given he's the 3bettor, so he has no good reason to go for a c/bomb here. If I was betting I would bomb this river hard though, maybe even overbet like $4.50. Not expecting AJ/AK to be able to fold easily.

[Savy]

17% SB vs BTN though.

[griffey24]

oh good call, didn't read that part haha. Though I'm sure SB vs BTN sample size is small, if whole sample is just 500 hands.

Then I'm DEFINITELY betting the turn hard, like pot.

As played, I expect more KJ now that he has a big 3b vs btn, but I'm still not folding.

[OngBonga]

5.5% 3b reg isn't generally 3betting KJ that often, so he won't have many KJ.

3bets the SB vs a button open 17%.

KJs is bang in his range imo.

Curious as to why you don't think AT and A8 are shoving here?

I agree they're in his range pre, and sure he can peel flop with them. After turn check-check, yeah he's going to feel like his hand is good. But this guy is a decent reg, his stats are not horrible, and shoving A8 or AT like this on the river would be a massive overplay that I wouldn't expect from this guy. This feels much more like the nuts that wants maximum value from our hand. Either that or he's seizing upon our perceived turn weakness, but seeing as KJ is in our range too, as is aces up, it seems crazy for him to airball this river all in.

[The Bean Counter]

I'd play 33/TT/QQ/AA/KJs/KJo/AQ exactly the same as villain on this run out against somebody I perceive as a reg (apart from 33 maybe, which I'd likely c/f without reads).

Turn is a spot I'd check back pretty often. My thinking would be that we are either getting chk/jammed on or villain is giving up, but we may get a street from him on the river and we're not scared of the majority of the deck. Seems that others think this is FPS though (and probably quite rightly so).

[griffey24]

I'd play 33/TT/QQ/AA/KJs/KJo/AQ exactly the same as villain on this run out against somebody I perceive as a reg (apart from 33 maybe, which I'd likely c/f without reads).

Turn is a spot I'd check back pretty often. My thinking would be that we are either getting chk/jammed on or villain is giving up, but we may get a street from him on the river and we're not scared of the majority of the deck. Seems that others think this is FPS though (and probably quite rightly so).

Why are you checking with all these hands as villain? That makes no sense. If anything that entire range should be your turn betting range.

This is not the type of board you want to be checking and giving free cards on. It's pretty coordinated with lots of hands having draws / OESD / gutters / pairs + draws etc.

[BorisTheSpider]

This is not the type of board you want to be checking and giving free cards on. It's pretty coordinated with lots of hands having draws / OESD / gutters / pairs + draws etc.

This is another reason I think this is the nuts. The timing tell I got on the turn made me suspect I was going to get something shipped on me, but I don't think after I just flat the flop, that he checks the turn and risks a free card (and a missed street of value) if he holds a set, so I think it was more likely to be a good draw on the turn (if I'm right about the tell).

What does confuse me a bit is the fact that after I checked back the turn, he's every reason to believe it just checks down, so I don't see why he doesn't lead the river with the nuts.

The only other scenario that makes any sense to me is that we're chopping, and he checks the river expecting _me_ to have A8/AT then jams for thin value.

[OngBonga]

This is another reason I think this is the nuts. The timing tell I got on the turn made me suspect I was going to get something shipped on me, but I don't think after I just flat the flop, that he checks the turn and risks a free card (and a missed street of value) if he holds a set, so I think it was more likely to be a good draw on the turn (if I'm right about the tell).

What does confuse me a bit is the fact that after I checked back the turn, he's every reason to believe it just checks down, so I don't see why he doesn't lead the river with the nuts.

The only other scenario that makes any sense to me if that we're chopping, and he checks the river expecting _me_ to have A8/AT then jams for thin value.

The timing tell has me thinking it's a draw. I do this when I want a free river... make it look like the turn hit me hard and I'm deciding whether to lead or c/r... when really I want villain to check back.

As for him c/r the river... I suspect he expects you to merely call if the river hit you and he leads, and you fold if it misses. By checking he allows you to bet if you hit the ace, or maybe even bluff if it didn't. Seems like a good line for the nuts on river if he thinks you have trouble folding AK and better.

[BorisTheSpider]

LOL yeah, I do that to try and get free rivers too.

As for him c/r the river... I suspect he expects you to merely call if the river hit you and he leads, and you fold if it misses. By checking he allows you to bet if you hit the ace, or maybe even bluff if it didn't. Seems like a good line for the nuts on river if he thinks you have trouble folding AK and better.

I like your thinking - this makes total sense and although I said earlier that he's a good reg and that I expect him to think of me as reggy, I actually don't think he's probably (like anyone else at 10NL, because of the huge player pool) got a specific read on me that I would be capable of folding something good here.

For that reason and because of the size of the pot, I 100% agree - if he leads the river with the nuts, he's expecting to get just flatted by nearly everything with showdown value, but checking gives me a chance to bluff at it, and it also gives me a chance to feel commited and call it off if I bet out with something good. In fact, I really like the line and I'm going to use it myself.

[The Bean Counter]

Kind of related video you might find useful Boris:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kuIiacYxhk

[The Bean Counter]

Why are you checking with all these hands as villain? That makes no sense. If anything that entire range should be your turn betting range.

This is not the type of board you want to be checking and giving free cards on. It's pretty coordinated with lots of hands having draws / OESD / gutters / pairs + draws etc.

Yeah, doesn't make a whole lot of sense does it? But I kind of like that against regs. Thinking it through (and rather worryingly), I only have a chk/jamming range on this board on the turn which includes a ton of semi bluffs and nuts as the complete air in my pre-flop 3betting range chk/folds the flop. My thinking is that nearly every reg will bet this turn when checked to with the majority of their range but fold to a chk/jam, so I can see the error in my logic with the nutted part of my range. If turn checks through then I'd chk/jam the majority of rivers as I'd expect all regs to bluff or bet and call off the value part of their range as they hate to think they are being bluffed.

I think I give free cards a little bit too often in the hope of somehow squeezing an extra street of value out, given that well over half the deck is fine in all likelihood and villain is either chk/folding or chk/jamming. I could definitely do with betting a bit more in those spots.

[griffey24]

Yeah, doesn't make a whole lot of sense does it? But I kind of like that against regs. Thinking it through (and rather worryingly), I only have a chk/jamming range on this board on the turn which includes a ton of semi bluffs and nuts as the complete air in my pre-flop 3betting range chk/folds the flop. My thinking is that nearly every reg will bet this turn when checked to with the majority of their range but fold to a chk/jam, so I can see the error in my logic with the nutted part of my range. If turn checks through then I'd chk/jam the majority of rivers as I'd expect all regs to bluff or bet and call off the value part of their range as they hate to think they are being bluffed.

I think I give free cards a little bit too often in the hope of somehow squeezing an extra street of value out, given that well over half the deck is fine in all likelihood and villain is either chk/folding or chk/jamming. I could definitely do with betting a bit more in those spots.

On this board, villain can have 9T, JT, QJ, KQ, AQ, JJ calling the flop, plus any other Tx like AT. 88, TT, QQ, QT are probably raising the flop.

Of the above hands, almost the entire range that called the flop may very well call this particular turn again, maybe 9T/AT drops out and folds, but JT, QJ, KQ, AQ, JJ will likely call again. When you check, AQ and KQ will bet, while 9T/AT/JT/QJ/JJ will check back. AQ and KQ MIGHT b/c a turn jam, but AQ will call a turn bet and river jam anyhow.

So you're going for a c/bomb line to ONLY gain value from the percentage of time that KQ 1. DOES bet turn 2. Does call your jam after betting, because if they are b/f you get one street which is the same result as betting 3. Does b/c turn and would have otherwise folded to a river triple barrel run-out, like in this instance when an Ace rivers.

Meanwhile you're losing a street from all of: AT, TJ, JJ, QJ, and now you're checking the river again (to ck bomb), so all of those hands are actually getting a showdown for free after the flop, instead of having to pay two streets. Not only are you losing a street or two of value, you're giving all those hands that have a pair + straight draw a free ride to their 15-20% equity on the turn.

coles notes: you are NOT squeezing any extra value out by going for a c/r on the turn. You are only gaining value from KQ some small % of the time, while losing value against all of their other combos.

Really I think it's more likely you are c/bombing turn to avoid a difficult decision on the river after you bet.

[abelardx]

Kind of related video you might find useful Boris:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kuIiacYxhk

Good video. I could definitely stand to work a little more bluff catching into my game.

[BorisTheSpider]

Good video. I could definitely stand to work a little more bluff catching into my game.

Yeah, thanks for the link BC.

[The Bean Counter]

Thanks for the response Griff - I realised some of the issues as soon as you replied initially, but you do a far better job of making things clear in my mind, as well as adding a boat-load of other issues I hadn't considered.

Really I think it's more likely you are c/bombing turn to avoid a difficult decision on the river after you bet.

Really can't dispute this and I think this is possibly an aspect where my irl personality comes though in poker - I like an easy life and stripping through complications, which isn't anwyhere near as great for poker as it is for my professional life.

Boris/Abe: you might also enjoy the other Phil Galfond "Poker Philosophy" vids and live plays on Youtube (I've been doing a lot of Youtubing lately when I should be sorting out a new job instead). They aren't ground breaking, but I think Galfond is a truly gifted communicator that makes me realise how little I think through each situtation in comparison to a world class player.

[daven]

bet turn obviously
river snap fold

[bikes]

bet turn, call river unhappily.

[griffey24]

Another way to look at the river is to ask yourself how much of villain's range gets to the river?

Everyone is so focused on KJ, which is all fine and well because that's the hand we lose to. But under the assumption that villain could cbet this flop somewhat wide, and the turn goes ck ck, villain gets to the river with his ENTIRE cbetting range.

We're getting like 18:12 on the river or something, so we need to be good 40% of the time to make this call. On the river villain reps 16 combos of KJ for value. So villain needs to have 11 bluff combos. Villain 3bets 17% (225 combos), presumably bets turn with 24 combos for value:

J9s - 4
QQ - 1
88,TT - 6
T8s - 2
KK - 6
AA - 1
AQ - 4

This leaves approx 200 combos getting to the river by betting flop / checking turn. Even if we assume he only cbets flop 50% of the time, that leaves 100 combos getting to the river with this line.

We need 11 combos of bluffs. SO the real question is, is he capable of turning 11% of his hands on the river into bluffs? Especially given the A came, a potentially "good" bluff card? Maybe, maybe not. But it's good to consider how many total hands are getting to a particular street, cause that STRONGLY influences the percentage of time they need to be bluffing.

[BorisTheSpider]

Thanks for the response Griffey, that's an interesting way to look at the hand and something I've never done before - I'll be using it in future.