25NL - QQ overpair on very wet board in 3bet pot.

[Pelion]

Villain is almost complete unknown. He only sat down 16 hands ago, but seems pretty tight so far.

We seem to be flipping vs his continuing range (and vs most of the hands we beat in that range).

Is there a better way to play this than just shoving now? I don't really think he folds anything high equity here or on the turn, so I feel like we should be able to call flop and fold some turns. The problem is, aside from an A I'm not really sure which ones.

I don't mind a diamond turn too much since he will have as many AK type hands as he will have AK, and it also gives me a redraw.

Thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $44.55 (178.2 bb)
MP: $22.81 (91.2 bb)
CO: $12.54 (50.2 bb)
Hero (BTN): $29.53 (118.1 bb)
SB: $26.07 (104.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB raises to $4.50, MP folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($9.60) 7 8 9 (2 players)
BB bets $5.75, Hero raises to $25.03 and is all-in

[BorisTheSpider]

Against an unknown, I probably fold pre.

As played though, I don't like a ton of turns, so although you're right that I can't really see that many we can fold if we call the flop, I prefer not to have to play the turn, so I jam the flop.

EDIT: Given that TT has the OESD, I really don't think we're flipping anyway, although I haven't stoved it. I'm not sure I jam the flop at all. But like I said, calling seems awful. Perhaps it's best just to fold flop, but that seems awful. I don't like anything. I'm glad I folded pre!

[Savy]

What's your calling range pre and what do you put villain on roughly?

[BorisTheSpider]

What's your calling range pre and what do you put villain on roughly?

Was that addressed to me or OP?

If to me, I find this hand tough to give him a range - it can be very wide if BB is exploiting our BTN 3bet which he might see as wide, but more often it's going to be someone who is less agressive and positionally aware than to pull that kind of move, so more often I think it's a big, cold 4betting hand for value. Against an unknown, I'd definitely make the assumption that it's [AK, AA-KK] and certainly no wider than [AK, AA-QQ].

[Cobra_1878]

Cold 4bet from what seems a tight player, I probably fold pre. (Fairly big 4bet at that)

I don't think you have much, if any, fold equity on that flop either. Some AK will fold, JJ MIGHT fold but I think that's about it.

[abelardx]

I like it. I don't think his range has to be that strong at all since he could be thinking you're weaker because you're isolating MP. There's too many scare cards and it's too easy to get bluffed so calling to showdown would just suck. If he is ever restealing then the shove has to be good. He will fold sometimes and he will call with flipping draws or worse and even worse made hands sometimes. There's only twelve combos of KK and AA, and I think he could have AJ+ and 99+ and even some suited stuff, only a quarter of which gives him a flush draw much less a combo draw. So I like it. And these days I think it is fair to assume that a new guy 3betting is a tag, has seen some videos, and has some light stuff in his range. That's true even at 5NL these days.

[abelardx]

I mean it's more like a 3bet than a 4bet. I assume MP has started min raising because he's tired of getting isolated?

[BorisTheSpider]

I like it. I don't think his range has to be that strong at all since he could be thinking you're weaker because you're isolating MP.

First, I think assuming that his range is weak because he cold 4bet is a big assumption. I honestly think you're giving him waaaaay too much credit.

Second, if you think BB has a weak range, why would we shove the flop?

he could have AJ+ and 99+ and even some suited stuff

AJdd is ahead, and obviously AdKd too. TT might call, JJ probably doesn't unless he's suicidal.

What worse can he call the flop shove with really? If he can't call with worse, we're bluffing, and I can't see what better folds.

[BorisTheSpider]

I don't think you have much, if any, fold equity on that flop either. Some AK will fold, JJ MIGHT fold but I think that's about it.

Tons bet-folds the flop, the problem is we beat it all.

[abelardx]

His preflop range could be as wide as like:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.31% 34.54% 0.76% { 99+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+ }
MP3 64.69% 63.93% 0.76% { QdQc }

If he cbets everything, folds all no-pair/no-draw hands to the shove, and calls with everything else (because he is getting 2:1), then:

1. the above generous range is 112 combos
2. he folds half his hands: off suit big aces, and non-diamond suited stuff that didn't make a pair. It's nice that you have the Qd.
3. against what's left, you are a 2:1 dog:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d7d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 64.29% 62.39% 1.91% { 99+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AdKd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd }
MP3 35.71% 33.80% 1.91% { QdQc }

So EV(shove) = .5 * 15 + .5 * (.35 * 40 - .65 * 25) = 7.5 (he folds) + 7 (he calls and loses) - 8 (he calls and wins) = 6.5 pretty nice.

And I think it's even better for you if his range is not so wide but still not just '4betting superhands'.

[abelardx]

First, I think assuming that his range is weak because he cold 4bet is a big assumption. I honestly think you're giving him waaaaay too much credit.

Second, if you think BB has a weak range, why would we shove the flop?



AJdd is ahead, and obviously AdKd too. TT might call, JJ probably doesn't unless he's suicidal.

What worse can he call the flop shove with really? If he can't call with worse, we're bluffing, and I can't see what better folds.

Well, my thinking is that this is not a typical 3bet/4bet spot, but more like a resteal 3bet. IF that is the case, he can't credit us with a strong range, esp if we've been isolating a lot, and I think he would continue in the huge pot with any pair and any draw. I could be totally wrong but that's how I'm reading it.

If BB's range is weak, we can't just play out the hand because he can easily bluff us on this scary board. If nobody made a big hand (likely), then whoever shoves first wins.

[griffey24]

His preflop range could be as wide as like:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.31% 34.54% 0.76% { 99+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+ }
MP3 64.69% 63.93% 0.76% { QdQc }

If he cbets everything, folds all no-pair/no-draw hands to the shove, and calls with everything else (because he is getting 2:1), then:

1. the above generous range is 112 combos
2. he folds half his hands: off suit big aces, and non-diamond suited stuff that didn't make a pair. It's nice that you have the Qd.
3. against what's left, you are a 2:1 dog:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d7d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 64.29% 62.39% 1.91% { 99+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AdKd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd }
MP3 35.71% 33.80% 1.91% { QdQc }

So EV(shove) = .5 * 15 + .5 * (.35 * 40 - .65 * 25) = 7.5 (he folds) + 7 (he calls and loses) - 8 (he calls and wins) = 6.5 pretty nice.

And I think it's even better for you if his range is not so wide but still not just '4betting superhands'.

I think your cold-4b range is waaay too loose. If anything like this is a reasonable range we should be jamming QQ preflop along with so many other hands, since he'll just be 4b/folding so much.

[abelardx]

Suppose villain has only AK and KK+, and he folds everything but KK+ and AKdd to the shove.

Then he folds 15/28 = 54% and calls 46% when we are about a 5:1 dog:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8d7d9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 83.75% 82.28% 1.47% { KK+, AdKd }
MP3 16.25% 14.79% 1.47% { QdQc }

So our EV, when villain is 'honest', is:

.54 * 15 + .46 * (.15 * 40 - .85 * 25) = about -5 dollars, making the shove bad.

So I guess it depends on our take on villain. If he resteals, shove is good. If not, then not.

If you give him credit for a truly tight range, then we should fold preflop. And that could be best since he's an unknown.

However, it kinda looks like a resteal, in which case, there's no way we can just fold an overpair on the flop. And if we are continuing then I like the shove.

[abelardx]

Well, if we give him credit for a truly tight range like AK and KK+, then we don't HAVE to fold preflop, but if that's our read, then we shouldn't shove the flop, but call the cbet and try to walk it to showdown in position.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Please come to my home game, abelardx.

[abelardx]

If his range is a little wider, but still realistic, like AQ+ and JJ+, and he folds everything but JJ+ and AKdd. (He can't have AQdd.) Then he folds 31/56 = 55% of the time and we're a 2:1 dog when called, giving us an ev of about 7.5 (he folds and we win 15) + 7 (he calls and we win 40) - 8.13 (he calls and we lose 25) which is like $6.5 pretty good.

[BorisTheSpider]

If his range is a little wider, but still realistic, like AQ+ and JJ+, and he folds everything but JJ+ and AKdd. (He can't have AQdd.) Then he folds 31/56 = 55% of the time and we're a 2:1 dog when called, giving us an ev of about 7.5 (he folds and we win 15) + 7 (he calls and we win 40) - 8.13 (he calls and we lose 25) which is like $6.5 pretty good.

Why do you want him to fold when he's behind?

[abelardx]

I don't want him to fold when he is behind. I think he will fold unless he has a made hand or good equity. It has nothing to do with what I want him to do.

I suppose you might call the flop and play the hand in position since we are ahead of whiffed AK and stuff like that, but the hand will be very hard to play. The armies are massed on the DMZ. Whoever bets next is committed. Better to bet first.

[ferconfeboord]

Xunjie2013

[abelardx]

Please come to my home game, abelardx.

Why?

[BorisTheSpider]

I don't want him to fold when he is behind. I think he will fold unless he has a made hand or good equity. It has nothing to do with what I want him to do.

Yeah, but if his range is AQ+ and JJ+, and you think he only continues with AKdd, JJ+ then we get called by a range with 64% equity against us.

And he folds:

[AcKc,AhKh,AsKs,AcQc,AhQh,AsQs,AQo+] - all of those hands we are crushing, and as a range they have an equity of 22% against us.

You say "he'll fold unless he has a made hand or good equity" - ie. nearly always if we're called we're behind or at best flipping, and if he folds we were crushing him.

[abelardx]

Yeah, but if his range is AQ+ and JJ+, and you think he only continues with AKdd, JJ+ then we get called by a range with 64% equity against us.

And he folds:

[AcKc,AhKh,AsKs,AcQc,AhQh,AsQs,AQo+] - all of those hands we are crushing, and as a range they have an equity of 22% against us.

You say "he'll fold unless he has a made hand or good equity" - ie. nearly always if we're called we're behind or at best flipping, and if he folds we were crushing him.

Are you saying we should be playing our hand as a bluff catcher? That is very interesting. I like that. It would be better if we knew something about villain but logically that might be the best option assuming we don't fold preflop.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Why?

Sorry, that was a rude way of saying that I think you're thinking like a fish.

Your math is fine, but you're really trying to justify making an extremely thin value play against what OP has described as an unknown. This is, in general, quite bad play.

Why do you want to play for stacks with a thin edge based on a speculative read?

Poker is about patience as much as anything. If you don't have a strong read, it is generally best to avoid thin value situations. This is because your estimation of the value is backed up only by a rough guess, and you could be V-towning yourself if your guess is off by a little bit. Better to fold now, pay attention to what Villain is doing while pulling in all the fat value you can. Once you've established a read on someone, then the ranges you assign them are much less guesswork and more grounded in observation. THIS is the time to start seeking out thin value against that Villain.

In general, the micros are about finding fat value and being aggressive in those spots. There's little reason to lose a stack on a 55/45 flip when the same Villain might offer you their stack in the next 15 minutes on a 70/30 or more. If your read says that this Villain is very good and unlikely to stack off when he's so dominated by your range, then you have an argument to start pushing those flips. But, let's be real, you're not facing Phil Ivey at the micros, and fat value is everywhere.

[BorisTheSpider]

Are you saying we should be playing our hand as a bluff catcher? That is very interesting. I like that. It would be better if we knew something about villain but logically that might be the best option assuming we don't fold preflop.

Well I far prefer folding preflop, but as played, yes - if he bets his entire range on the flop, QQ is a bluffcatcher. I'm not saying we _should_ be bluffcatching on the flop in 4bet pots however.

[abelardx]

Sorry, that was a rude way of saying that I think you're thinking like a fish.

Your math is fine, but you're really trying to justify making an extremely thin value play against what OP has described as an unknown. This is, in general, quite bad play.

Why do you want to play for stacks with a thin edge based on a speculative read?

Poker is about patience as much as anything. If you don't have a strong read, it is generally best to avoid thin value situations. This is because your estimation of the value is backed up only by a rough guess, and you could be V-towning yourself if your guess is off by a little bit. Better to fold now, pay attention to what Villain is doing while pulling in all the fat value you can. Once you've established a read on someone, then the ranges you assign them are much less guesswork and more grounded in observation. THIS is the time to start seeking out thin value against that Villain.

In general, the micros are about finding fat value and being aggressive in those spots. There's little reason to lose a stack on a 55/45 flip when the same Villain might offer you their stack in the next 15 minutes on a 70/30 or more. If your read says that this Villain is very good and unlikely to stack off when he's so dominated by your range, then you have an argument to start pushing those flips. But, let's be real, you're not facing Phil Ivey at the micros, and fat value is everywhere.

OK, I get you.

Well I far prefer folding preflop, but as played, yes - if he bets his entire range on the flop, QQ is a bluffcatcher. I'm not saying we _should_ be bluffcatching on the flop in 4bet pots however.

Hmm, this is a good hand to post because it is right on the line. Personally I do not see folding QQ here preflop playing 6max, blind vs button, but this flop puts us in a difficult spot. Not sure I'd have the nads to call all-in with this. Probably I'd play it just like Pelion, although I'd rather have the AKdd than the QQ.

[abelardx]

Results?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Never post results. Results don't matter here.

[abelardx]

When you're done getting all the discussion you want, Pelion, I'd like to hear what actually happened.

[Cobra_1878]

Tons bet-folds the flop, the problem is we beat it all.

What else would you add to his b/f range in a 4bet pot?

[griffey24]

I think a big mistake tons of ppl have is raising/shoving too often in position (ie: essentially negating their positional advantage).

Think about how much more uncomfortable it is for you when you're in a big pot OOP getting called down with air/weak hand and you don't nkow what to do. You don't know if you should check or bluff. Now think about the difficulty in your decision when you have a weak hand/air and get jammed on. Not much decision, easy fold.

Does he have many FD's here? Not really. Does he have much Tx? Probably not. Jx? Maybe he has JJ - 6 outs, that would certainly b/c here. AK - sure, 6 outs to the turn. AQ? - sure, 3 outs to the turn, and 1 out that we love. So worst case we are up against 6 outs here I'd estimate. Definitely no point shoving flop.

[Pelion]

1) How do you play it griffey? If you are calling flop, what hands/cards are you calling/folding turns? Are you shoving if he checks a blank turn?

I posted this because I really wanted to call this, but felt like I would be lost on well over half of the possible turn cards and I felt like I would face a lot of disgusting river spots if we check back turns.

T or J both seem pretty bad turn cards for us. Any A seems bad. K seems pretty bad (but not a disaster) Any diamond seems like it should be bad, but actually I don't think it changes much.

My thoughts would be something like:

A - give up.
K - pot control / try to get to showdown cheap / fold if not
T/J - pot control / try to get to showdown cheap / fold if not
- stick it in
6 - not sure? pot control?
5- stick it in
board pair - stick it in?
blank - stick it in

What do you think? Is it possible to pot control with 2 streets to go and so little behind?

2) Does everyone see this as a super strong cold 4bet? If so then I'm shocked, and need to radically rethink how I handread vs regs. My thinking was this:

• Random fish minraised MP
  
• I TAG Iso-raise a wide range in position
  
• Villain 4bets Blinds vs Button - Likely to be as wide as he would have 3bet unopened

Do most regs not attack these iso-raises?

[MadMojoMonkey]

2) Almost no one 4-bet/folds at the micros, and not too many villains have a 4-bet bluff range, either. We've had many discussions in the BC about how even micro-regs tend to play way too tight from the blinds.

So my assumption is that Villain is repping the top of a range that is already too nitty.

I do not attack iso-raises from the blinds all too often. It is, quite frankly, one of the more confusing spots for me to play.

[griffey24]

I think if we call flop there isn't really pot controlling.

The pot will be like $20ish and there will be $14 or so behind. He'll probably shove his range that beats us on most turns plus any bluffs, and if he checks we likely shove. If he checks a T or J I'd probably ck behind.

[Pelion]

It would really help me to know what turn cards are you calling and what (if any) you are folding?

[griffey24]

You can probably do some EV calculations of calling vs shoving flop.

If he has AK:

12% of time (6 outs) he shoves turn A/K and we fold
88% of time he bricks turn, maybe half the time he bluff shoves AK, we win
16% of the time T or J turns, he checks and we check it down vs his AK

If he has AA

6% of the time a K turns and we fold
etc etc

It takes a while but you can work out the approximate EV of each scenario, and then each hand has a certain number of combos contributing to the overall range so you can do a weighted average of all EV and get a total EV of calling vs shoving.

I'd probably find a fold on an A/K turn, though Ad or Kd would be tough.

[daven]

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to Bigger Here $1.50, SB folds, BB raises to $4.50, MP folds, Hero Fold Here calls $3

^

[rpm]

feels nitty but i think we can just fold pre. as played i think shoving is our worst possible move, as he just snaps off all the hands that beat us and rarely calls worse (or has many hands in his range that will fold). i'd probably call and re-evaluate turn, assuming he shuts down with any bricked AK type hands when we peel flop on such a wet board.

edit: the fact we get into these kind of spots (the board is unlikely to have connected at all with villain's cold-4b range, yet we are still wary of committing $ the pot with an overpair) makes me more comfortable just folding pre

[abelardx]

Shoving is reasonable because it makes the hand significantly easier to play. I do not like folding pre.

[Pelion]

edit: the fact we get into these kind of spots (the board is unlikely to have connected at all with villain's cold-4b range, yet we are still wary of committing $ the pot with an overpair) makes me more comfortable just folding pre

I'm not wary of committing here at all. I'm just not sure of the best way to do it. I think we are probably flipping with his continuing range if we shove and there is a lot of dead money in the pot. That makes shoving significantly better than folding. It just may not be better than calling.

Are you guys seriously only defending KK+ pre BU vs Blinds? I'm pretty comfortable that 5bet/call pre is better than fold pre given the min-open.

This thread has made me think I'm not 3betting nearly enough TAG iso-raises now though.

[daven]

This thread has made me think I'm not 3betting nearly enough TAG iso-raises now though.

almost guaranteed this is the case. People iso way too much then get confused facing a 3b and then fold too much or call too much oop

[BorisTheSpider]

What else would you add to his b/f range in a 4bet pot?

Assuming a sensible cold 4betting range for an unknown, which is [AA-KK, AK] then AK bet-folds the flop (other than AKdd) which is 40% of his range. If he cold 4bets [AA-QQ, AK] then that reduces to 35%, but still the point stands - he can b/f flop a lot, and he only does it with stuff we were crushing. If he can have JJ/TT, then he can also have AQ/AJ/KQ so he b/f more air which outweighs the additional hands he b/c with.

[BorisTheSpider]

Are you guys seriously only defending KK+ pre BU vs Blinds? I'm pretty comfortable that 5bet/call pre is better than fold pre given the min-open.

I think if you're thinking too much about the min-open, you're levelling yourself. Now you'll be right a sizeable portion of the time, people _will_ see that you iso'd a minraise and will fuck with you lightly as a result, but will it be often enough that against _an unknown_ you can 5bet QQ then stack off when you get shoved on? I don't think so.

This thread has made me think I'm not 3betting nearly enough TAG iso-raises now though.

Now this I can agree on, just don't start doing it at my games mkay?

[Pelion]

The potsize when he "4bets" (which I would see as more of a 3bet) is 6.50. If we only ever get it in vs KK+ then we have 20% equity - so we are risking 13.50 to win 6.50.

That means we need him to fold 2/3 of the time. Say his 4bet is AK/QQ+ (29 combos). AK/QQ is 17 combos. 17/29 is 60% vs the 67 or so that we need.

We aren't far off being able to 5b/call (vs folding) if he NEVER 4bets light.

If he 4bet's 11 more combos here then 5b/call is better than folding. That's only A5s-A3s polarised or AQ/JJ linear. This is a situation where his 4bet range is likely to be much closer to his normal 3bet range in a non-minopened pot - and of course if he ever gets it in worse than KK folding is horrible.