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Originally Posted by surviva316
Villain (~$260) in this hand has been at the table for an hour, maybe two. He kinda seems like your stereotypical casino rat; late 50s-early 60s, mustache, balding, kevlar jacket, smelled like cigars when he first sat down. The type of person I'd imagine is usually there to bet on the horsies. I haven't seen him before. He's already over-committed to Kings at one point this session and has been way more tilted over a fairly standard spot than the more competent live regs would. I don't expect him to play super predictably, but I'd be surprised if his idea of spew is anything other than over-committing to a pair. Which might make the title of this thread a bit of a head-scratcher ...
It folds to villain (we're now HU), who almost folds without much thought. Then, he reconsiders, looks out of the corner of his eye to notice it's me who's betting, and goes into the tank. Nothing about his tank is exaggerated or showy. He doesn't at any point seem to be considering a raise. If he's Hollywooding, then he's doing it with a subtlety that is unprecedented among his demographic. Villain finally puts $45 in the middle and checks dark.
The turn ($162) is the 7s. I make it $54, and villain immediately announces "All-in." I bet the turn figuring his range is pretty much exclusively second pairs, whiffed overs, some 7x gutshots and maybe a smattering of FDs, so I can either string him along a bit more or make him surrender his equity.
It's $153 more to call. Hero fold or calls?
I think the problem here is that this type of player's game may be built almost exclusively on Hollywooding, because that's what poker is to him.
For this thread to go anywhere, you'll have to trust my very strong read that villain's first instinct was to fold.
I mean, ok. I feel you. I'll go with your read here.
And yes his range is almost exclusively 2nd pairs and some draws. Your turn bet is fine, targeting those hands. The problem is that you've made it so easy for him to call down with 99- that you have to seriously reconsider what his range is when he ships instead.
(the truth is I don't see this type of player really folding 99 or whatnot on the flop either so once again I want to lean toward a Hollywood, but I guess I already agreed to not give up that fight)
yes you're getting a good price, yes he'll show up with some random junk and no, he's not repping much of anything. I still want to fold the turn. I've made plenty of hero calls in similar spots because "lol u rep like 3 combos" and he shows me 77.
Also I feel you're going to get so much value out of this type of player, either when you crack his overpair or when he limp-calls, check-folds flop or when you have him outkicked that I am certain you can fold here and actually realize your edge over him in the span of a session.
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