[10NL] KJs...BB vs BU

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 15/11 over 73 hands. 60% cbet.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.18
SB: $11.95
Hero (BB): $11.69
UTG: $10.00
CO: $16.87

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J K

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90, 3 players) J 9 3
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $0.57, fold, Hero calls $0.57

Turn: ($2.04, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.29, Hero calls $1.29

River: ($4.62, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.93, Hero ???

OK, I don't think we're good here the majority of the time so I'm not overly interested in what we think Hero should do but what range can we put villain on?

I find it hard to believe he has a ten, as I don't think he bets twice w/ TT or JT and I don't think he has any other tens in his range. He doesn't seem worried about me having a ten and I think I can have plenty of 10s in my range here so that makes me think that he does actually have a 10.

What is he betting 3 streets with? Most nits will chk back AJ here some of the time as well.

[Cobra_1878]

Hmm, actually, if Villain isn't betting JT twice then we don't beat a whole lot of hands.

Thoughts on folding turn?

[Cobra_1878]

Sorry, old habits, can we move this into the SSNL forum please.

Thank You!

[spoonitnow]

Sorry, old habits, can we move this into the SSNL forum please.

Thank You!

No problem. There will be a redirect in the BC for another month, so people will see a link to this thread from there.

[relaywisp]

He can have a lot more 10s than you think. It's definitely wider than JT/TT. He can have potentially up to 16 combos each of QT and T8, maybe 12 more for KT. Some QT and KT checks back turn, he also has Tx clubs that decides to barrel after picking up the gutshot. His value range is definitely significantly greater than zero. I don't know what his bluffing range is but i don't really want to analyze that farther than hes a nit that fired three on this runout.

Also i like squeezing a lot more pre if he's opening the button a decent %.

[spoonitnow]

I think the river is a definite fold. One thing to consider is that he's tight pre-flop and doesn't seem to be too aggressive in general, so he's really picking his spots. Considering he's fired three, there's no way we have the equity to call on the river. Calling two streets and folding the river might be okay? Idk.

[Cobra_1878]

He can have a lot more 10s than you think. It's definitely wider than JT/TT. He can have potentially up to 16 combos each of QT and T8, maybe 12 more for KT. Some QT and KT checks back turn, he also has Tx clubs that decides to barrel after picking up the gutshot. His value range is definitely significantly greater than zero. I don't know what his bluffing range is but i don't really want to analyze that farther than hes a nit that fired three on this runout.

Also i like squeezing a lot more pre if he's opening the button a decent %.

I think squeezing isn't a bad idea at all. I agree that I narrowed villain's range too much - I guess he could fire two barrels with T8 and QT, though as you said, I would expect a check back on turn sometimes as well.

I think the river is a definite fold. One thing to consider is that he's tight pre-flop and doesn't seem to be too aggressive in general, so he's really picking his spots. Considering he's fired three, there's no way we have the equity to call on the river. Calling two streets and folding the river might be okay? Idk.

Cool, this sounds good to me. I don't think villain is ever bluffing here and I don't think he has many (any?) value hands that we beat either.

[griffey24]

What is villains steal? Even though he's tight pre, he may be stealing more than we would expect from such a nit. If he has a reasonable steal (>30% or so), I don't mind a squeeze pre even.

As played, folding river.

[Cobra_1878]

Hey Griffey, long time no speak! Hope you're doing well man.

I didn't include villains' ATS as I didn't think I had a big enough sample - but he was 12.5% ATS from the BU before this hand. I think this might have been why I didn't squeeze actually.

[griffey24]

Hey Griffey, long time no speak! Hope you're doing well man.

I didn't include villains' ATS as I didn't think I had a big enough sample - but he was 12.5% ATS from the BU before this hand. I think this might have been why I didn't squeeze actually.

Doing well! how are things?

Yah we have a small sample, but if someone had like an 75-80% steal over a very small sample (4-5 possible steal attempts), that would probably be enough for me to assume that he's positionally aware/trying to steal light... enough so that I wouldnt' feel bad about 3b here pre.

But it doesn't seem like that is the case, so I would play it the same as you and fold river.

[OngBonga]

I wanna shove as a bluff.

[griffey24]

I wanna shove as a bluff.

I don't think there's much need. He's pretty polarized in this spot to straights or air i would assume. I doubt he ever has a hand better than ours, that he's betting here and would fold to a jam?

[Cobra_1878]

Doing well! how are things?

Yah we have a small sample, but if someone had like an 75-80% steal over a very small sample (4-5 possible steal attempts), that would probably be enough for me to assume that he's positionally aware/trying to steal light... enough so that I wouldnt' feel bad about 3b here pre.

But it doesn't seem like that is the case, so I would play it the same as you and fold river.

Going well thanks. Took a break from online play to try my hand at live and I really enjoyed it.

Now I'm back playing online and I feel like I have forgotten everything I ever learned. I tried to come back and play 50NL after a two-month break and quickly realised I better move down the stakes before I lose my roll.

So yeah, here I am, trying to learn how to beat 10NL again. I felt somewhat embarrassed coming back to site as a 10NL player but it is what it is. Just have to do it all over again.

[OngBonga]

I don't think there's much need. He's pretty polarized in this spot to straights or air i would assume. I doubt he ever has a hand better than ours, that he's betting here and would fold to a jam?

Yeah looking at this again I don't think I'm ever c/r'ing river with JT, seeing as villain checks back nearly everything. If I bluff this, I'd just lead the river at near pot size.

That said, his river bet is weird because if he has just top pair, or even a set, he hates this runout. He's repping thin here, like he's repping JT and not much else. I might call this.

[relaywisp]

That said, his river bet is weird because if he has just top pair, or even a set, he hates this runout. He's repping thin here, like he's repping JT and not much else. I might call this.

He should have all combos of T8 that he opens pre and a lot of QT and KT here. Even if he's checking back a lot of his QT and KT on the turn theres still a decent amount of straight combos that he has

[OngBonga]

15/11 is unlikely to have T8s, let alone T8o. I'd like to see button stats before I'm happy he has T8s in his range.

[ErnieohneBert]

Equity on Turn is around ~15 % which isn't enough.

Villain probably won't bet ace high / air / weak pair on 3 streets.

Considering that we almost beat no hand besides QJ in a Range of:

AA-JJ,99,33,AJo,KJo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AJs,KJs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J7s,T8s,AcTc,KcTc,Tc7c,8c7c,6c5c

Assumption made: Opening Range of 35% which seems plausible to me given the tight stats.