What's your assessment of play w/ TT?

[filimaica]

Thank you in advance for your positive, constructive feedback. If any of you feel that this post is better suited for a different sub-forum, then feel free to make your recommendation (or administrator: please direct accordingly). Thank you.

$2/$5 NL live game. 9-handed. I have sat at the table for less than 30 minutes. The only opponent I have any meaningful read on is one seat to my right (older gentleman, loose-passive-somewhat deceptive). My best approximation of the overall feel of my table was: 70% mix of either loose-passive-straightforward or tight-passive-straightforward, 30% mix of loose-aggressive or tight-aggressive.

My stack = $360. Most stacks at the table range from $200 to $650.
I am sitting at UTG + 3 with

UTG and UTG+1 fold. UTG+2 (aforementioned opponent) calls. I raise to $20. HJ, BU, SB, and UTG+2 all call. Preflop pot post-rake = ~$95.

Flop:

SB, BB, and UTG+2 all check to me. How would you play your hand at this point? I'll post my play once I have heard back from some of you. Thanks again for your time!

[kingmotan]

I wouldn't consider putting anymore money in this pot.

[MadMojoMonkey]

@OP: What I would do is irrelevant; the question isn't "How would you play your hand at this point?" The question is, "What considerations guide Hero's decision at this point?"

The 2 players to Hero's right have already checked (after passive pre-flop play), they are probably weak. So how do the 2 players to the left look right now? Are they eyeballing their chips (strong)? Are they looking around like as if they don't care (strong)? Are they staring at the flop (weak)? Are they checking and double-checking their pocket cards (weak)?
These facts are more important than you might think, since you left them out of your OP.

Hero has 33.4% chance of making a boat or quads by the river. There is a high likelihood that Hero is ahead right now.

Betting $100 and playing for stacks can be the right play if you think Villains are on a draw or have a hand less than a straight... which is most of the time.

Betting $50 to call is probably OK, too, but you have more difficult decisions to make on later streets. This is to your advantage if you can out-play Villains more often than not.

Betting $150 to fold is probably horrible, as you are definitely priced in for 2 cards if any Villain raises.

Check/folding is horrible, as Villains will definitely bet worse than a set on this board.

Check/calling is bad because it lets Villains set the price of the pot.

My advice:
Bet here for value... PLUS it has the added benefit of 1) eliminating opponents/collecting dead money, 2) it narrows any calling Villain's range, 3) Hero is protecting his hand and not giving away free cards on a draw-heavy board.
*Note: 1, 2, & 3 are not reasons to bet, they are pleasant side-effects of betting.
I'm willing to play for stacks here fairly often, but it depends on reads. If it's not all-in OTF, I'm probably jamming any non-diamond turn.

EDIT: I don't mind a check/raise shove either.

[Fnord]

Bet $50 or less.

Keeping Ax or fuck even Jx and Tx hands in the pot is what you want. Getting all the money in on the flop probably isn't going to happen unless top pair goes nuts here to protect his hand or you're behind.

You're probably going to have to play a turn and a third of the deck is a scare card, so start thinking about that.

[KoRnholio]

I wouldn't consider putting anymore money in this pot.

And that is why you're posting garbage like this to stay "qualified" for freerolls.

@OP: I'm betting here. Letting a free card roll off in a multiway pot with this board is definitely something we want to avoid. Probably $100 and playing for stacks given the size of the pot and our remaining stack.

[filimaica]

Thanks everyone for your feedback. I'll post my reply in the following format:
A) what I actually did
B) my rationale for my decision, then what actually ensued from that hand
C) my analysis of my decision in hindsight
---------------
A) I pushed all-in on the flop.

B) Out of five players (including myself), I was fairly confident that I had the best hand at this point (or rephrased, I believed that in the long run, my hand would win the largest percentage of the time). If someone is on a flush draw, especially if they had or , then even a pot-sized bet gives them the correct odds to call (they need 1.9:1, if my understanding is correct). Given that these tables are very often on the loose side, I felt an overbet would make the cost "wrong" for my opponents. I didn't see the point in overbetting without ALSO being prepared to go broke. So all-in was my decision.
Villain (one seat to my left) thought for about 90 seconds, then decided to go all-in. Everyone else folded. He flipped over
Turn =
River =
He outdraws me on the turn with nut flush vs my set. Sigh.

C) I could have made an "info" bet on the flop of, say, 1/2 to 2/3 pot (says for example, $60). If Villain calls, then it's a $220 pot going into the turn. The would "scare" me, then if Villain showed strength, I'd be hard pressed to call any significant bet (unless his turn bet gives me correct odds to call and see the river, I'd need ~5:1 odds, including implied odds to even consider that). If he pushes all-in against my $60 bet, then I have to weight my pot odds to call plus whether or not he has a flush, two pair or bigger set (most likely a made flush). But at least had I decided to fold, then I'm down $80 instead of the $360 I lost. Still disappointing because, in hindsight, my read of the situation was correct, I was simply outdrawn.

Again, I welcome positive, constructive feedback. Thanks very much for your time.

[Fnord]

Sometimes you're just going to have to play a big pot in a spot where you don't have a lock.

Happens.

If you don't shove, a wider range of hands, including ones that are pretty much drawing dead, will give you action.

[swiggidy]

If you don't shove, a wider range of hands, including ones that are pretty much drawing dead, will give you action.

This.

You're trying to win the most money, not the most pots.

[brucesmall]

Hmmm, I woulda bet like 25, see if i get reraised in which case id call if it weren't too much, if he flat calls, i'd prolly bet 25 again, if he flat calls, id bet 25 again... he reraises im out... Its a trick hand, but shoving is a gutsy move