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100NL: Laggy shove or good play?
I can't help but think I played this hand all wrong. Sure, I've got AA and it's pretty easy to just be like LOL SHOVEADOODLEZ but I can't really see what villain is c/r flop with that doesn't beat me.
Hookay, so. Villain is 30/5/3 over 1.5k hands and is c/r flop 6% and is 1/35 4+bet PF. So he's bascially standard nitty reg who likes to limp too much. Villain is BB and he 3bets my open, I put his range around TT-AA, AK, maybe some AQ. We are 4/4/10 over 23 hands whatever that means, but since we have so many hands on him, our life time 14/12/3 at this level probably comes into play. Our range is fairly weak until we 4bet, obviously. Now when calls the 4b, I'm thinking he's on the weaker part of that range. AA is out completely and there's probably less of a chance he has KK. I'm thinking it's heavily TT-QQ, AK-AQ but still some KK.
Flop is meh. I guess there's the outside worry that maybe he tried a move w/ T9s and hit since he's a bit reggy but I don't think he's the type to mess around. I'm pretty much looking at the K. If he's got AK he doesn't have the fd which is big but he could have a gutter+flush w/ AQ. Anyway, we get c/r. His range now... Any T is shoving but based on the range I set up unlikely he has one, I think, KK, AK, AQs. If he was a fish I'd say he might be aggro with QQ/JJ but that doesn't fit this guy.
At this point, I figure I'm either folding thinking I'm up against KK or getting it in thinking he'll have AK/AQ more often than not. Calling doesn't work, pot would be too big to walk away from later on. I think that the average villain has AK a lot here. I'm not convinced that this one does though. And after typing all this I put it in PS and we have 74% equity vs. TT-KK, AKso, AQs Thoughts?
So I'm getting "Error: Can't determine file format" when I try to convert this hand. I think it might have to do with the new Cereus HH format... Sorry that's it's unconverted. I tried. =\
Stage #C35587828: Holdem No Limit $1 - 2010-06-04 12:56:26 (ET)
Table: TURKEY HWY (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 5 - TERJEBULL ($84.35 in chips)
Seat 6 - SLIKDIK22 ($156.10 in chips)
Seat 7 - CC_SMOOTH ($212.94 in chips)
Seat 8 - IMVV11 ($100 in chips)
Seat 9 - ORTOBREAKER ($118.80 in chips)
Seat 1 - MRS_YEE ($100 in chips)
Seat 2 - KDAWGY80 ($138.50 in chips)
Seat 3 - PUTNAMS7151 ($100 in chips)
Seat 4 - FATBAS7ARD ($165.05 in chips)
SLIKDIK22 - Posts small blind $0.50
CC_SMOOTH - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to KDAWGY80 [As Ad]
IMVV11 - Folds
ORTOBREAKER - Folds
MRS_YEE - Folds
KDAWGY80 - Raises $3 to $3
PUTNAMS7151 - Folds
FATBAS7ARD - Folds
TERJEBULL - Folds
SLIKDIK22 - Folds
CC_SMOOTH - Raises $5.25 to $6.25
KDAWGY80 - Raises $15.50 to $18.50
CC_SMOOTH - Calls $12.25
*** FLOP *** [10h 10d Kh]
CC_SMOOTH - Checks
KDAWGY80 - Bets $25.75
CC_SMOOTH - Raises $57.37 to $57.37
KDAWGY80 - All-In(Raise) $94.25 to $120
CC_SMOOTH - Calls $62.63
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