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Good bluffing opportunity on the river?

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  1. #1

    Default Good bluffing opportunity on the river?

    9-handed 10/25HK late night game(10/25 sb/bb,500-5k buyin). 2 limpers, a LAG young guy raised $150 from HJ who plays super loose aggressive and raises with a wide range of hands especially in late positions,hero on the BT calls with ,sb( a typical aware TAG) calls,2 limpers both call(one is a semi-loose cautious old guy)
    stacks as follow:
    LAG young guy: 12k
    old guy limper: 9k
    hero:7.2k
    SB TAG:4k
    flop($750): sb(TAG) checks, limpers check,LAG checks,hero checks Should hero bet here and steal the pot?
    turn($750): sb TAG bets $500, old guy limper calls who seems semi-loose and plays some SC or flush draw here,LAG folds, hero calls
    river($2250): SB TAG checks, old guy limper checks, hero checks down or fires how much?
    Last edited by pokerfan; 08-08-2011 at 11:21 PM.
  2. #2
    I guess it depends on how bad your opponents are.

    Alot of their holdings have showdown value and one of the guys might call a 1/2 pot bet with something like T9 or a little worse.

    I would think it would have to be a big bet that tries to represent the backdoor flush or a strong Q. Something like $2k maybe.

    Though if your opponents are thoughtful enough to wonder how you got to the river with a Q high hand, you might get caught a good amount of the time. Their range includes a lot of bluff catchers i think.
  3. #3
    Ghaleon, what do you think about a semi-bluff flop bet? In position with a big flush draw and several opponents, why not build a pot? I don't mind a 1/2 pot bet here, but would hate to get check-raised.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by RockyMoose View Post
    Ghaleon, what do you think about a semi-bluff flop bet? In position with a big flush draw and several opponents, why not build a pot? I don't mind a 1/2 pot bet here, but would hate to get check-raised.
    Personally - I think it's a great idea. I just tried to limit my reply to the OP's question about bluffing the river.

    The OP is playing higher stakes than I'm used to, so I'm not sure if this will work as well, but one thing I do ALOT is raise flush draws, particularly in position. I balance this by checking a lot of 'two-suit' flops and then bluffing when a flush hits on the turn. Alot of players will read the exact opposite of this (I bet when I have a pair+, check when I have a draw).

    You would be amazed how many low stakes tourney and 1/2 NL players HATE HATE HATE HATE the third flush card, especially when you check behind them. After a few sessions, it's usually pretty easy to see who these players are and exploit that. And then once you finally DO hit your flush draw it's time to go to valuetown
  5. #5
    FWIW - I would bet the flop, and if called, I would put out a fairly large semi-bluff on the turn after picking up some straight outs.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghaleon View Post
    Personally - I think it's a great idea. I just tried to limit my reply to the OP's question about bluffing the river.

    The OP is playing higher stakes than I'm used to, so I'm not sure if this will work as well, but one thing I do ALOT is raise flush draws, particularly in position. I balance this by checking a lot of 'two-suit' flops and then bluffing when a flush hits on the turn. Alot of players will read the exact opposite of this (I bet when I have a pair+, check when I have a draw).
    This is the lowest stake in macau( a little bit higher than 1/2NL).Given their seemingly weak range,i think that 1/3-1/2 PSB might be big enough to get them off the hand.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by pokerfan View Post
    This is the lowest stake in macau( a little bit higher than 1/2NL)..
    OOOOOHHHHHH ok. This makes more sense to me now.

    At these stakes, I would expect the limpers and maybe one of the blinds to get involved almost every time. Given that, I think the best play against the LAG with a wide range would be to raise on the button with this hand.

    if my hand had a little more post-flop potential (like KJs), I would probably flat and hope to hit a big hand against five players.
  8. #8
    I think it's almost mandatory to bluff the river for $1200 or so.

    I think in this case not betting the river helps our credibility when the BD flush hits. Our hand looks like a flush draw because, well, it is. And we can't have spades because we would have semibluffed the flop, right?
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    I think it's almost mandatory to bluff the river for $1200 or so.

    I think in this case not betting the river helps our credibility when the BD flush hits. Our hand looks like a flush draw because, well, it is. And we can't have spades because we would have semibluffed the flop, right?
    Not sure exactly which course of action you are advocating, but I thnk $1200 is too small. I think most players will assume our range includes alot more than just the BD flush. And giving them 3 to 1 to call us with A9 or 88 seems like a losing venture.

    The more I think about this, I think I give it up on the river. We should have raised pre-flop. We should have bet the flop. We could have raised the turn. Instead we played very passively and all we have is K high against a range of hands that includes alot of bluff-catchers. I don't think we can erase three streets of mistakes with a total bluff now.
  10. #10
    My line - I haven't given this a whole lot of thought, so if I'm wrong, don't go crazy at me. But this is roughly how I think I might play this hand.

    Pre-flop - 50% Raise / 15% Call / 35% Fold
    Flop - 75% Raise / 25% check
    Turn - 65% Raise / 25% Call / 10% fold
    River - (if I played it as above) 100% value-bet bluff
    River - (As played) 100% check/muck
  11. #11
    I think I am pretty plainly advocating bluffing the river vs. two weak ranges.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghaleon View Post
    My line - I haven't given this a whole lot of thought, so if I'm wrong, don't go crazy at me. But this is roughly how I think I might play this hand.

    Pre-flop - 50% Raise / 15% Call / 35% Fold
    Flop - 75% Raise / 25% check
    Turn - 65% Raise / 25% Call / 10% fold
    River - (if I played it as above) 100% value-bet bluff
    River - (As played) 100% check/muck
    Preflop 3 bet ip: OK
    flop bet: OK
    turn raise: ?
    river bluffing: it really depends on game flow and our opponents' tendency.Two players still involved in this hand are definitely aware and can fold their TP hands based on my read. +$1k bet always looks like a big hand in these games.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by pokerfan View Post
    Preflop 3 bet ip: OK
    flop bet: OK
    turn raise: ?
    river bluffing: it really depends on game flow and our opponents' tendency.Two players still involved in this hand are definitely aware and can fold their TP hands based on my read. +$1k bet always looks like a big hand in these games.
    I would raise the turn because we have alot of outs and it's a tasty semi-bluff spot. The TAG player bet out 2/3 of the pot, which in TAG language means he thinks he's good but vulnerable. If prefer to make the big move here rather than on the river because 1) There aren't alot of river cards that can give you a credible bluff and 2) If called we still have 9 flush outs, 3 straight outs, and probably 3 kings.
  14. #14
    wat

    more than half the deck is a scare card if you have 9x.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    wat

    more than half the deck is a scare card if you have 9x.
    Are they credible scare cards? Is the Q of hearts here enough to convince 2nd pair to fold getting close to 3 to 1 odds (if we bet 1200)

    is the average low stakes player going to give us credit for a float on the turn with something like KQ?

    I just think that the most credible scare cards that can hit are the ones that actually help our hand. A spade or a 6 are going to look like obvious hit draws if we bet them, so I think the only way to get value for our hand is through some semi-bluff/deception.

    If we raise huge on the turn + spade on the river = Merry Christmas
  16. #16
    yes they're credible scare cards
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    yes they're credible scare cards
    Care to elaborate?

    I think alot of semi-aware players will consider a busted flush draw to be a significant part of our range, and we're going to get called down quite a bit.

    Remember, we have NOTHING. We're laying almost 3 to 1 odds to TWO players. We only have to get called 25% of the time to show -EV here.

    What do you think of making a move on the turn instead? It helps to polarize our opponents range, builds a pot where we have alot of outs, and gives us information that might prove useful if we need to make a decision on the river.

    I'm not really sure what you're trying to say, other than to just disagree with me. I dont' know what I ever did to you, but PM me if there is a problem.
  18. #18
    Sorry if I didn't articulate my point well, I wasn't being terse to be intentionally rude.

    I think given the read that these are two semi-aware players we can make some assumptions:

    1. Our hand looks precisely like a draw. The most likely draw we have just came in.
    It's weird that we didn't bet the flop, but it actually helps us here because it's hard to put us on a busted spade draw.
    2. Both villains have marginal hands, especially the old guy, who's most likely to have a draw himself.
    3. We can take advantage of our position because it'll be a lot harder for the TAG SB (who almost certainly has the best hand) to call with another player behind him.
    4. Since SB's range > old guy's range, we're going to get away with our bluff a lot.
    5. We're giving ourselves good odds on our bluff. We could make the same bet if a river spade came in.

    Not sure why you keep pointing out that we have nothing; that's the point of a bluff?

    I've floated the turn in this spot with a naked Ah to bluff this river and it's pretty profitable.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  19. #19
    well I'm not going to over-complicate this issue anymore, but I will say that I think you're overestimating the average 1/2 player's expectation that you would bet the spade draw.

    I can't explain why, but in my experience, it seems that players always suspect the draw on the flop, but are less influenced by the backdoor draw.

    For our opponents to lean towards the heart draw, they would have to formulate a read based on three streets of action. I think you're giving 1/2 players too much credit.

    ABC poker tells our opponents to check/call on this kind of board with almost anything that has showdown value.

    But meh, it's a moot point since I think the OP may have mis-played the previous three streets. Trying to make something out of nothing at this point just feels like trouble.
  20. #20
    these are 10/25 players

    something tells me you don't bluff enough.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    these are 10/25 players

    something tells me you don't bluff enough.
    Ah ha, you made the same mistake I did. Somewhere in this thread the OP says that its $10/$25 Macau dollars and he said that translates to slightly higher than $1/$2 american dollars.

    FWIW I agree with you 100% if we're dealing with much higher level players. I think the average low stakes donk will find a call here ALOT.

    One more question - if we are so sure that our bluff will work, why not bet more? Why not bet $1800 or $2k? I think that might force more of our opponents range to fold.
  22. #22
    Fnord's Avatar
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    hmmmm....

    I like a shove here if they read live hands.
  23. #23
    Fnord's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghaleon View Post
    I think the average low stakes donk will find a call here ALOT.
    Disagree. Particularly if you're putting him all-in.

    You'll get a weird call every now and then, but at $200 NL with a bunch of money behind an over-bet should get a lot of folds unless the game texture dictates otherwise.
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Disagree. Particularly if you're putting him all-in.

    You'll get a weird call every now and then, but at $200 NL with a bunch of money behind an over-bet should get a lot of folds unless the game texture dictates otherwise.
    We actually agree. I was saying that 1/2 players will find a call here alot if we only bet half the pot.

    I'm with you, go big here or go home
  25. #25
    i think shoving is totally cool
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  26. #26
    I'm all for betting this river, but only if it's 80% of the pot or more.

    The only guy I'm worried about is the TAG in SB, is he ever c/cing 68s(really rare) 64s or a set?

    Or is he bet/folding those hands most of the time (i feel like he would bet maybe 900-1.1k right?)?

    Those are the only hands I feel like will call a big bet, but I don't think they like it very much either.
  27. #27
    I don't think SB has 86/64
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  28. #28
    I don't think the TAG has 64/86
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  29. #29
    I don't want to thread-jack but I'm curious about somethings and this hand seems like a good example to use.

    1) The OP's other question in teh middle of his post. Should we bet the flop? What about raising the turn?

    2) Under what circumstances would we just check/muck here? The only way to win the pot is to bluff, but if we always bluff when we miss, we're exploitable.
  30. #30
    1. i'd bet this flop like 100%, raise the turn just about never

    2. If our range for calling turn is spades or hearts and always bet when spades or hearts come in, we're not exploitable
    Last edited by baudib; 08-09-2011 at 08:39 PM.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  31. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Disagree. Particularly if you're putting him all-in.

    You'll get a weird call every now and then, but at $200 NL with a bunch of money behind an over-bet should get a lot of folds unless the game texture dictates otherwise.
    Hero didnt really think about river shoving line. Sb'd probably fold anything but backdoor flush or straight in this spot given his TAG nitty tendency.
  32. #32
    fold or 3 bet pre, checking the flop is criminal and a clear indication you should fold pre, it doesn't come K88 much and you don't seem to have a plan for the hand.

    bet river, when the poker gods bail you out you don't spit in their eye. shoving if I'm reading stack sizes right is really awful.
  33. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    fold or 3 bet pre, checking the flop is criminal and a clear indication you should fold pre, it doesn't come K88 much and you don't seem to have a plan for the hand.

    bet river, when the poker gods bail you out you don't spit in their eye. shoving if I'm reading stack sizes right is really awful.
    agree. I had my longest 18-hour live session ever.During the last hour of play, i was too tired to think about the game plan.So i just picked a suited hand on BT recklessly and wanted to get LAG tard's money as much as i can. Anyway i just fired $1k recklessly,sb snap called with 99 after checking his turned set.I'm still thinking that we have to go ahead and fire on this river vs their range including lots of weak pairs,missed draws and showdown hands.
  34. #34
    yeah, just a good river check by him.

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