TPTK on btn vs 3 nits: do I raise? ($4NL FR)

[rowhousepd]

I think I might be missing opportunities to raise to when I have TPTK, but w/ 2 other opponents left to act I'm not sure if it's ok to just flat a cbet.

Villain is 15/8/3.8 nit as are the other two in the blinds so he could have QQ+ and maybe a set w/ 88. Decent Broadway like KJ, QJ, or JT that be might play which I have beat. He makes a standard 2/3rd sized bet.

Do I call and expecting a raise on the flop, and try to see this showdown cheaply? Or do I end it here w/ a nice big raise (& fold in he plays back) to like ~$1.00 and possibility save myself from calling bets to he river? Otherwise the temptation will be to keep calling the Turn & Riv as long as the bets aren't too crazy and the cards aren't scary. Thought?

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
Hand History Converter

BB: $3.89
UTG: $4.06
UTG+1: $1.52
MP1: $4.06
MP2: $3.43
Hero (CO): $4.13
BTN: $4.16
SB: $2.07

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is CO with A J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.12, 1 fold, SB calls $0.10, BB calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.48) 3 8 J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $0.32, Hero ??? calls or raises ???

[rpm]

call. his continuing range is probably something like 33,88,JJ+,AJ,KJ.

that's 25 combos which beat you, and 18 which you beat (IF he even continues with KJ, which a nit may not). thus you do not have >50% equity against his continuing range, and don't have enough equity to raise for value. just flat and keep his range wide. note also that by flatting, you get some implied value from the airy hands that cbet this flop, like AK and AQ, or whatever Ax he has in his range, the times the turn comes an ace. and there are only two real "scare" cards (K,Q) for you here with no flush draws on the board. and your opponent is unlikely to be good enough to 2barrel bluff a K or Q turn anyway, so you don't need to be afraid of folding the best hand often when the turn comes a Q or K.

[rpm]

Do I call and expecting a raise on the flop, and try to see this showdown cheaply? Or do I end it here w/ a nice big raise (& fold in he plays back) to like ~$1.00 and possibility save myself from calling bets to he river? Otherwise the temptation will be to keep calling the Turn & Riv as long as the bets aren't too crazy and the cards aren't scary. Thought?

why would you want to "end it" when there are only something like 15 combos in your whole range stronger than your actual holding (33,88,JJ,QQ), even less if you 3bet QQ here. you either want to raise and get the money in, if you have >50% against your opponent's calling range. or make an easily-profitable call with TPTK, if you don't think your opponent will continue to a raise with a dominated enough range to make raising have a higher EV than flatting.

what you seem to be wanting to do is "raise for information", ie raise the flop to define his range better, and hope to play better on later streets (when the bets are bigger) as a result. you're far better off deciding what you think he does with certain ranges on the turn and river - and making a plan around that (ie "i don't think he will barrel the turn with anything worse than QQ, so i'll fold if he leads the turn" or whatever), than potentially turning your TPTK into a bluff by raising for information.

^^ should have prefaced all of that with "as far as i know"

[Mr. Bucket]

Questions to ask yourself when considering a raise:
1. Is worse calling? If so, is there enough worse calling to make it profitable?
2. Is better folding? If so, is there enough better folding to make it profitable? If so, is this the correct hand in my range to make this play with?
So yeah not much worse is calling a flop raise, and board is way too dry to assume villain doesnt c bet bluff into this many players. call.

[daviddem]

First thing is to fold pre. You call a raise from a 15/8 with a hand that is dominated by most of his raising range (read: you're crushed by AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ). Not a good idea.

Post flop has been well explained by rpm and Mr Bucket. Call.

[rpm]

First thing is to fold pre. You call a raise from a 15/8 with a hand that is dominated by most of his raising range (read: you're crushed by AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ). Not a good idea.

shit. true. i was too focussed on postflop play and didn't really even consider preflop. definitely fold pre for these reasons. basically this is a hand with which you either
- get a heap of action and are largely behind on Axx flops (because the bottom Ax in his range is probably AQ)
- flop a pair and get little to no action because there is an overcard to his mid/high pair range

so basically your hand is in a lot of trouble in the big pots.
and you typically win little when your hand is good (ie when you outflop him)