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I think my the entire leak that is evident in this hand boils down to what I think villain should make his 3bet flatting range.
In villain's situation, Ie. you are running regular ish stats over ~30 hands, and you open BU and get 3 bet by BB running taggish stats who hasn't 3bet yet my flatting range would be like AQ, AJs, TT-QQ. The reason for this extremely tight flatting range is my attempt to combat the general bipolar disorder 10nl regulars have with regard to 3 betting. In my limited experience there are some regs at 10nl who 3bet way way way too much as a bluff, but aside from these players most regulars generally have their 3bet stat converge to something like 3-5%. The idea that the BB is one of the guys who 3 bets way too much as a bluff is extremely unlikely because of him not having 3 bet yet. For this reason I feel like his 3betting range in this spot is most likely very tight.
Even though his 3betting range is so tight i feel my odds for set mining arent the greatest since i will hit my set
(1-(48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48))*100% or 11.76% of the time
Which means the EV of our call assuming we are giving up when we dont hit a set is:
.8824*-.8+.1176*x
Where x is the ammount we expect to win on average when we hit a set.
When we set this expression = to 0 and solve we find x to be $6.00.
With the immediate pot at 1.45 this seems way too high of an estimate for x. Although we do have some % of the time where we can get to showdown and win, there is also alot of the time where we get set over set or someone catches a straight/flush and we get stacked so i think calling with a small pp will be -ev
I'm not sure if calling with SC's is -ev or not, but my assumption has been that it is in this spot and they have not been in my calling range.
So I expect SCS and PPs to not be in a ton of villain's calling ranges. I think calling axs here 100bb deep is burning money. At the same time it is a very common leak for regulars to call with these hands in this spot. As i said in my original post his range "Definitely could be wider or tighter" than what I posted. Because we do not know if he will call with these hands or not, I just put a portion of the hands in his range since some % of players will be calling them and some wont. That's why the range included 77-jj and not 22-77 as well as 89s-qjs but not 67s, 87s, and kqs.
The reason for QQ being in the flatting range, but AK not is because AK is much better to 4bet in this spot due to it blocking AA, KK, and AK. Both QQ and AK have ~40% equity against a stacking off range of AK, QQ+, but this stacking off range is 29 combos against QQ and 21 combos against AK, so your opponents will have that strong range roughly 30% less often.
Now I'm not sure if my original range of AJ, AQ, 77-qq and 89s-QJs. is weighted well at all. If you guys think villain's on average will have more or less hands then that I'd love to hear about it, but the correct range to compare our hand against should not be the completely unweighted extreme of someone calling with all the scs pps and Axs.
On flop my problem with betting is that i think overpairs, draws, combo draws, pair+fd/sd and some floats are in his calling range. The problem then comes when so many turn cards help his range alot so if we bet we are essentially turning our hand into a bluff, but checking the turn sucks too since he can bet a somewhat balanced range of draws (made or not), floats, and overpairs.
For this range I feel like just check/calling the flop can be good with a plan of c/f'ing turn as alot of players will split their range on turn, continuing to vbet their A range and taking a free card with draws/random overcard stabs. Also i really don't expect him to stab flop that often at all since again our perceived 3betting range is going to be really strong. This means we can vb turn rather profitably though since the draws in his range lose alot of equity and there are less overpairs since some bet flop.
This part is @ luck's high 3bet frequency comment:
If the villain is opening 49% of hands:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J6s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o,76o,65o
and he's continuing with the weighted range I posted + his 4betting range of KK+, AK then he continues 8.4% of hands. This means he folds (40.6/49)*100%=~82.9% of the time.
Hence the fold equity alone of our 3b bluff is:
.829*.45-.171*1.00=~$.2
With this bluff giving me one PTBB just from FE i feel my bluff frequency should be very high.
In retrospect; however, maybe T8o is included in too wide a range? what do you guys think?
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