10nl- sizing agasint fish

[unclesteve]

CO is reg, only 100 hands
BTN appears to be loosepassive fish, only 10hands so no reads.


Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $10.76
SB: $3.36
Hero (BB): $11.30
UTG: $10.02
MP: $10.00
CO: $12.46

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K T

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.28, BTN calls $0.28, fold, Hero raises to $1.36, fold, BTN calls $0.98

I think this is a pretty std sqz spot pre, I wanna iso the fish, I haz a pretty hand but don't like flatting, etc.

Flop: ($2.85, 2 players) 7 6 4
Hero bets $1.42, BTN calls $1.42

So here is where my main question is- can i cb smaller than 1/2 pot , betting the turn smallish again to fold out his Ax hands? Or is it better to bet flop bigger and ship turn?

Turn: ($5.69, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $2.84, BTN calls $2.84

River: ($11.37, 2 players) K
Hero bets $5.78,

[Razvan729]

i dont like to 3bet that OOP vs a fish.

flop bet is weird since the fish is calling Ax, 5x,8x,3x,7x,6x,4x and any PP so i would check it .

turn the same ideea .

why do you bet air vs a fish ( you called him fish and loosepassive) when the pure definition of a fish is that they will call to SD any fcking crap they have and they dont fold any draws or pair.

vs this guys i like to value bet or bet air when i have equity vs they range. your equity here vs his calling range is really small and i think you have pretty much no fold equity.

i would call pre, c/f flop, c/f turn.


but that's just me....

[Shotglass]

I'm wondering what you've seen that makes you consider him as loose/passive in only 10 hands. What have his actions been prior to this? Has he taken anything to showdown? etc, etc. Which leads to: What sort of PF calling range would you put him on and are you ahead or behind that range?

I'm not sure that I like the 3bet pre OOP in this case, facing a raise & call. With no reads on the btn, you could be up against a decent hand. I'd just call pre.

To answer your question OTF, you can c-bet smaller to get away cheaply, about 1/3 pot, but the flip side of that is that you offer him better odds to continue. On top of that, you call him loose/passive which implies that he's going to continue unless it's really obvious that he needs to fold and even a 3/4PSB prolly won't do that.

If the btn is truly loose/passive then the whole hand is played like crap because you don't want to bluff these guys and you don't have a hand until the river.

[bikes]

this hand is totally std on every street

[Razvan729]

with all the respect for you bikes and all others that post, pls detaliate why you think what you write. pls give some arguments.

you have far more experience then me and for sure more succes in playing poker, but pls make me understand why is this a +EV play here?

[PlayToWin]

.... pls make me understand why is this a +EV play here?

+1

[daviddem]

- I like to iso-squeeze pre IP. If you are comfortable doing it OOP fair enough.
- cbet repping a big pair is fine against someone who can find the fold button. Against a station I don't like it so much. If you check to him and he is really that passive, he is only going to bet if he has you beat right?
- same with the turn. The Q is a good barrel card against a thinking opp but against a station who just happily called a 3b pre and a cbet and already has "invested" 40% of his stack, chances of a fold are not so good. Your sizing is good though because he only has to fold one third of the time for the play to be profitable.
- river is a bit thin imo, but if he called this far with 88 or 99, these might still be in his river calling range and against QQ-66,44,76s you have 60%, better if some AQ,KQ and QJ are there as well.

I am also interested to understand why Bikes thinks the hand is standard all along, and what was OP thought process during the hand.

edit: after writing all that shabang I only realize now that this is 6max. I wrote all of the above with FR in mind.

[unclesteve]

ty for all replies so far.

i dont like to 3bet that OOP vs a fish.

we're 3bettting to iso coz we love playing agaisnt fishies, even oop, and the reg will have to fold often which creates dead moniez in the middle which is the nutz.

flop bet is weird since the fish is calling Ax, 5x,8x,3x,7x,6x,4x and any PP so i would check it .

Yeah ur right, flop is pretty coordinated meaning he'll call often, at the time my thinking was that his range will have more broadways and overcards to the board so he'll have to c/f often... meh, could go either way, c/fing would be fine, I still don't mind betting

turn the same ideea .

Once I bet flop I have to bet turn to get his weak hands to fold, otherwise I was prolly just burning money on the flop, primarily here I'm targetting Ax coz I think that's both the biggest part of his range, adn the part he's most likely to float flop with and fold turn.

why do you bet air vs a fish ( you called him fish and loosepassive) when the pure definition of a fish is that they will call to SD any fcking crap they have and they dont fold any draws or pair.

Don't agree. The defn of a fish is a bad player, bad players can come in all shapes and forms. some of them will cbet and never follow tru, some of them will call 2streets and fold everything on the river, some of them will c/minr with nutted hands, etc etc. There's a million different ways a player can be labeled a 'fish', and a million different bad plays he can make which we can profit from.

vs this guys i like to value bet or bet air when i have equity vs they range. your equity here vs his calling range is really small and i think you have pretty much no fold equity.

don't agree, i'm betting coz I believe i have fold equity.

i would call pre, c/f flop, c/f turn.


but that's just me....

[unclesteve]

I'm wondering what you've seen that makes you consider him as loose/passive in only 10 hands. What have his actions been prior to this? Has he taken anything to showdown? etc, etc. Which leads to: What sort of PF calling range would you put him on and are you ahead or behind that range?

I believe him to be loosepassive coz he's like 80/10 over the hands I have so far.

I'm not sure that I like the 3bet pre OOP in this case, facing a raise & call. With no reads on the btn, you could be up against a decent hand. I'd just call pre.

flatting pre is meh, CO's range has alot of hands that dominate us.

To answer your question OTF, you can c-bet smaller to get away cheaply, about 1/3 pot, but the flip side of that is that you offer him better odds to continue. On top of that, you call him loose/passive which implies that he's going to continue unless it's really obvious that he needs to fold and even a 3/4PSB prolly won't do that.

IMO he folds the flop with a decent portion of his range, and even if he doesn't, he folds lots of that on the turn, so cbetting to set up a brl is gonna be super +ev.

If the btn is truly loose/passive then the whole hand is played like crap because you don't want to bluff these guys and you don't have a hand until the river.

Again, a very narrow range of what defines a loose passive fish imo.

[Razvan729]

he is 80/10 so he plays 80% of all possible preflop combos.'

go play w/ pokerstove and you will see that any 8x,7x,6x,5x,4,3x which are all pair combos or straight draw combos, these all are 72% of all starting hands and he is calling all these, so even he is folding all of his air he is not folding enough so that youre 1/2 pot is +EV , not even 0EV. the hands he is folding are max 20% of his preflop range and that is if he is folding all Ax and broadways whic he isnt, but even if he does its not enough cause you need him to fold 33% of his range.

you're equity vs his calling range, if he is calling only pair combos and straight combos, to hit on turn is 18%, so FE+ hand equity dont justify a flop bet. but he will call Ax and broadways and your hand equity + FE will drop a lot.

even if you dont bet turn and he doesnt also, the equity you have up to river is not enough so that when you hit, this would be a profitable play.

i cant see how this is + EV play vs this kind of player.

[Shotglass]

I believe him to be loosepassive coz he's like 80/10 over the hands I have so far

Fair enough. Since he's running 80/10, what street by street ranges did you assign him and what is your equity (from stove) against these ranges?

I think that I understand your line of thinking for this hand but have yet to see you tell us what sort of range you're giving him that would cause you to think that your line is +EV.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ge-177508.html

[unclesteve]

he is 80/10 so he plays 80% of all possible preflop combos.'

not necessarily, his 80/10 stat is over 10hands remember, his true stats could be more like 40/13 or 27/4, we don't have an accurate read on this. Also he folds a decent amount of these preflop anyway, so imo his range is tighter than you seem to think.

go play w/ pokerstove and you will see that any 8x,7x,6x,5x,4,3x which are all pair combos or straight draw combos, these all are 72% of all starting hands and he is calling all these, so even he is folding all of his air he is not folding enough so that youre 1/2 pot is +EV , not even 0EV. the hands he is folding are max 20% of his preflop range and that is if he is folding all Ax and broadways whic he isnt, but even if he does its not enough cause you need him to fold 33% of his range.

disagree. also, your forgetting that we're gonna barrel just about every turn, so if he is calling with Ax and gutshots, he folds these pretty often on the turn imo, making it a super +ev play to set up barrels against this player.

you're equity vs his calling range, if he is calling only pair combos and straight combos, to hit on turn is 18%, so FE+ hand equity dont justify a flop bet. but he will call Ax and broadways and your hand equity + FE will drop a lot.

even if you dont bet turn and he doesnt also, the equity you have up to river is not enough so that when you hit, this would be a profitable play.

i cant see how this is + EV play vs this kind of player.

I guess I just disagree with your idea that this player never folds any pair or any gutter, and that these are most of his range.

[unclesteve]

Fair enough. Since he's running 80/10, what street by street ranges did you assign him and what is your equity (from stove) against these ranges?

I think that I understand your line of thinking for this hand but have yet to see you tell us what sort of range you're giving him that would cause you to think that your line is +EV.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ge-177508.html

imo preflop his range is all the broadways, lots of PPs, all Ax hands, some connected hands, prolly like 67o+, all the SCs, some suited one gappers, prolly 57s+ or so.

This range doesn't hit the board texture as hard as you think, and it's a pretty small % of this range that'll call down and get to the river.

And I think I very rarely get to showdown, so I'm not really concerned about my own equity. If I hit an over, like I did in this hand, I'll be pretty happy about it, but otherwise I'm just tring to make him fold.

[Shotglass]

I'll just end my comments with this:

I tend to disagree with a couple of the statements that you made in your last post. Your line of reasoning seems to be a bit skewed. Yes, you hit one of your overs, this time; but you cannot make someone fold. You can only make it difficult for them to continue.

[unclesteve]

I'll just end my comments with this:

I tend to disagree with a couple of the statements that you made in your last post. Your line of reasoning seems to be a bit skewed. Yes, you hit one of your overs, this time; but you cannot make someone fold. You can only make it difficult for them to continue.

ya, agree with this

plz do elaborate on wat you disagree with, I'm enjoying this discussion

[daviddem]

Just some general principles at the micros:
- don't bluff stations, value bet them.
- if you bluff, bluff with equity

This range doesn't hit the board texture as hard as you think, and it's a pretty small % of this range that'll call down and get to the river.

Not so sure his range getting to the flop is as wide as you seem to think. Remember that he flatted your 3b pre, which you made against an EP raiser and a caller, repping a lot of strength. It's not like he just flatted an open. I wouldn't give him unsuited connectors or gappers for example. I'd surely give him all PP and broadways and Axs and a bunch of suited connectors.

What do you think his river calling range is?

[Shotglass]

imo preflop his range is all the broadways, lots of PPs, all Ax hands, some connected hands, prolly like 67o+, all the SCs, some suited one gappers, prolly 57s+ or so.

This range doesn't hit the board texture as hard as you think, and it's a pretty small % of this range that'll call down and get to the river.

The bold is true and when he keeps calling you, it should be a warning.

Using your range:

Holdem Poker Simulation by ev++ Equity Calculator :: Enumerated 600000 hands
Board Cards :: 7 6 4 Q K
____Player____|______Hands______|__Combos / %____|_Win Hi %_|_Tie Hi %_|_Equity %_|
_ 1 : Preflop_|_______KsTs________|___1____ / 0.1%__|__47.23___|___2.95___|__48.71___|
_____Flop_____|_________________|___1____ / 0.1%__|__32.42___|___4.75___|__34.79___|
_____Turn_____|_________________|___1____ / 0.1%__|__19.62___|___2.82___|__21.02___|
____River_____|__________________|___1 ____/ 0.1%__|__82.98___|___1.62___|__83.79___|

_ 2 : Preflop_|______KT+|QT+|JT|___|___412__ / 31.1%_|__49.82___|___2.95___|__51.29___|
____________|_A2+|44+|67o+|23s+_
_____Flop_____|_________________|____374 __/ 28.2%_|__62.83___|___4.75___|__65.21___|
_____Turn_____|_________________|____357__ / 26.9%_|__77.57___|___2.82___|__78.98___|
____River_____|_________________|_____341__ / 25.7%_|__15.40___|___1.62___|__16.21___|

But daviddem is quicker than me and beat me to the punch: I don't think his range is as wide as you give him. What realistic range do you think he has on the each street because that will significantly change your equity (which, ott, is already pretty poor at 21%)?

[Razvan729]

imo preflop his range is all the broadways, lots of PPs, all Ax hands, some connected hands, prolly like 67o+, all the SCs, some suited one gappers, prolly 57s+ or so.

This range doesn't hit the board texture as hard as you think, and it's a pretty small % of this range that'll call down and get to the river.

And I think I very rarely get to showdown, so I'm not really concerned about my own equity. If I hit an over, like I did in this hand, I'll be pretty happy about it, but otherwise I'm just tring to make him fold.

you range is bolded.... on flop your equity UP TO RIVER ( that means no more betting on turn and still is -EV when you bet 1/2 pot flop ) vs that is 35% and he is folding none and you have no fold equity on flop since you said he is calling all and its normal to call all cause he is a fcking fish so flop bet is wrong.

on turn vs the same range you drop to 20% equity and you have about 25% fold equity which is not enough since you bet again 1/2 pot ( that means he needs to fold 33% just to brake even) and vs his calling range on turn your equity drops to fcking 13% so even when you stack him you dont have not even a brake even play, not to mention making profit!


if after all math with YOUR RANGE you cant see that this is -EV or 0EV in the best case, then i have nothing more to add.... there is no way you will ever make money in this spot playing like this.


P.S.: i really am curious, if you are so sure that this is a +EV play, why the hell is the thread here? cause is you know , you are sure, you made a +EV play, this thread is equal to asking if its ok to shove AA pre!

[unclesteve]

Just some general principles at the micros:
- don't bluff stations, value bet them.
- if you bluff, bluff with equity



Not so sure his range getting to the flop is as wide as you seem to think. Remember that he flatted your 3b pre, which you made against an EP raiser and a caller, repping a lot of strength. It's not like he just flatted an open. I wouldn't give him unsuited connectors or gappers for example. I'd surely give him all PP and broadways and Axs and a bunch of suited connectors.

What do you think his river calling range is?

I don't know that he's a station yet, I just know he openlimps and calls too many hands pre.

I'm not sure which streets your talking about, but...

If his range of getting to the flop is tighter than I think, surely that's good for us? It makes him even less likely to have connected with the board, increasing our fold equity? On turn and flop that is...

As played, I think his river calling range is Qx, that somehow floated the flop, and 88- JJ he can sometimes call with... I think not shipping river after I hit is bad.

[unclesteve]

The bold is true and when he keeps calling you, it should be a warning.

Using your range:

Holdem Poker Simulation by ev++ Equity Calculator :: Enumerated 600000 hands
Board Cards :: 7 6 4 Q K
____Player____|______Hands______|__Combos / %____|_Win Hi %_|_Tie Hi %_|_Equity %_|
_ 1 : Preflop_|_______KsTs________|___1____ / 0.1%__|__47.23___|___2.95___|__48.71___|
_____Flop_____|_________________|___1____ / 0.1%__|__32.42___|___4.75___|__34.79___|
_____Turn_____|_________________|___1____ / 0.1%__|__19.62___|___2.82___|__21.02___|
____River_____|__________________|___1 ____/ 0.1%__|__82.98___|___1.62___|__83.79___|

_ 2 : Preflop_|______KT+|QT+|JT|___|___412__ / 31.1%_|__49.82___|___2.95___|__51.29___|
____________|_A2+|44+|67o+|23s+_
_____Flop_____|_________________|____374 __/ 28.2%_|__62.83___|___4.75___|__65.21___|
_____Turn_____|_________________|____357__ / 26.9%_|__77.57___|___2.82___|__78.98___|
____River_____|_________________|_____341__ / 25.7%_|__15.40___|___1.62___|__16.21___|

But daviddem is quicker than me and beat me to the punch: I don't think his range is as wide as you give him. What realistic range do you think he has on the each street because that will significantly change your equity (which, ott, is already pretty poor at 21%)?

I've never seen this type of equity calc b4, where you get it?

Anyway, like I just said, his range not being wide preflop is good for us coz we got lots of fold equity coz he missed the flop.

And I have no SDV or equity, if I did I'd prolly want to see a showdown, and not be concerend with folding out his better hands.

[unclesteve]

you range is bolded.... on flop your equity UP TO RIVER ( that means no more betting on turn and still is -EV when you bet 1/2 pot flop ) vs that is 35% and he is folding none and you have no fold equity on flop since you said he is calling all and its normal to call all cause he is a fcking fish so flop bet is wrong.

on turn vs the same range you drop to 20% equity and you have about 25% fold equity which is not enough since you bet again 1/2 pot ( that means he needs to fold 33% just to brake even) and vs his calling range on turn your equity drops to fcking 13% so even when you stack him you dont have not even a brake even play, not to mention making profit!


if after all math with YOUR RANGE you cant see that this is -EV or 0EV in the best case, then i have nothing more to add.... there is no way you will ever make money in this spot playing like this.


P.S.: i really am curious, if you are so sure that this is a +EV play, why the hell is the thread here? cause is you know , you are sure, you made a +EV play, this thread is equal to asking if its ok to shove AA pre!

that range I assigned him was his preflop range, I don't think he continues with much of that which is why I like betting so much.

How did you get taht fold equity %?

Just because I'm not willing to accept wat every1 else says automatically does not mean i'm so sure this is a +ev play, I'm just promoting interesting discussion. This does not mean I'm incapable of changing my mind about my line if someone can convince me, nobody has yet.

[Shotglass]

We've given you our arguments against this being a +EV line to take. The only one to agree with you is bikes and while I greatly respect his opinion, I still disagree. Neither of you have provided any evidence to support your claims that this is a +EV play. A few of us have asked you for street by street ranges so that we might be able to better analyse your line of thought, which you still have not provided.

I was extremely interested in seeing the information that led you to this decision, but now I'm just, meh.

Here's where I got the calculations:ev++ Poker Tools :: Online poker odds calculator
I run a linux system and it's a lot easier to use this than to try to get stove working in wine.

[unclesteve]

Prolly should have done this in the OP but will do it now instead, his range pre, we'll give him the top 40% of hands, idk if it should be wider or tighter than this.



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

827,042,832 games 1.346 secs 614,444,897 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.749% 46.08% 01.67% 381103894 13803156.50 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A3o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Hand 1: 52.251% 50.58% 01.67% 418332625 13803156.50 { KhTh }


---

So if I cbet flop his range changes, he continues with 30%, this is giving him all gutters and all Ax hands, and every pair.


Board: 7c 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.089% 70.79% 01.30% 233364 4291.00 { 44+, A2s+, K8s-K2s, Q8s-Q4s, J8s-J7s, T8s-T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A3o+, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o }
Hand 1: 27.911% 26.61% 01.30% 87724 4291.00 { KhTh }


---

EV= FE(amount we win) + equity(1-F)(amount we win) - his equity(1-F)amount we lose
= .25(2.85) + .28(.75)(4.27) - .72(.75)(1.42)
= .71 + .90 - .76
= +.85

So our cbet is +ev, even if he never folds a single pair, draw or Ahi, which he obv sometiems will.

Now the turn barrel, at this stage I believe he folds all Ax, most gutters and some of his weaker pairs, which leaves him w/18% of hands.


Board: 7c 6h 4s Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.216% 87.22% 00.00% 6754 0.00 { 44+, A7s-A5s, K7s-K5s, Q8s-Q4s, J7s, T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A7o-A5o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 12.784% 12.78% 00.00% 990 0.00 { KhTh }


---

EV= FE(amount we win) + equity(1-F)amount we win - his equity(1-F)amount we lose
= .4(5.69) + .12(.6)(8.53) - .87(.6)(2.84)
= 2.27 + .61 - 1.48
= 1.40

So my turn brl is +ev if he folds Ax, some gutters and some crap pairs. Even if this assumption is wrong, he still folds some broadways that he floated flop with, which I havn't accoutned for, so that should balance enough that this bet is +ev imo.

Then on the river...

171 games 0.005 secs 34,200 games/sec

Board: 7c 6h 4s Qc Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.731% 25.73% 00.00% 44 0.00 { 44+, A7s-A5s, K7s-K5s, Q8s-Q4s, J7s, T7s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A7o-A5o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 74.269% 74.27% 00.00% 127 0.00 { KsTs }

we just have the best hand super often, so we vbet.

Someone can say 'ya, we have the best hand, but he never calls with worse'

I'm not gonna claim to understand this, coz I don't, but I've seen a cpl of 1knl+ regs saying that when we have the best hand so often we need to be betting, as in if it's close to 0ev between checking and betting, betting is better.

I'm pretty sure m2m said this somewhere, maybe someone who's better than me could explain it?

anyway, thats my analysis, if any of my calcs are fundamentally wrong i'm gonna look and feel like a complete idiot.

[unclesteve]

just realised I use KThh instead of KTss for most of the calcs, w/e, doesn't change the equity I don't think.

I was extremely interested in seeing the information that led you to this decision, but now I'm just, meh..

srry if I'm boring you

[d0zer]

Here's where I got the calculations:ev++ Poker Tools :: Online poker odds calculator

garbage in, garbage out

[unclesteve]

P
we just have the best hand super often, so we vbet.

Someone can say 'ya, we have the best hand, but he never calls with worse'

I'm not gonna claim to understand this, coz I don't, but I've seen a cpl of 1knl+ regs saying that when we have the best hand so often we need to be betting, as in if it's close to 0ev between checking and betting, betting is better.

I'm pretty sure m2m said this somewhere, maybe someone who's better than me could explain it.

D0zer, can you comment/clarify this principle plzzzzz?

[daviddem]

Qx, that somehow floated the flop, and 88- JJ

So he floats the flop with all his Qx and calls the river with them, he always calls the turn and river with 88 and 99, but he never has a set or two pairs that he calls with on the river??

The way you are forming your ranges when you say "let's give him 40% preflop" and "he calls the flop with 30%" above is very flawed. Instead, sit in his seat and his mind for a minute and ask yourself what you do with your cards for each combo in his range facing the action. I seriously doubt he calls pre with junk like 43o and T7s. He doesn't call the flop either with A2s or K2s wtf

And with 80/10 stats, even over only 10 hands, there is a much better chance of him being a station than a TAGG... http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...th-175213.html

[mbiz]

this hand is totally std on every street

sometimes i think you're being sarcastic but you turn out not to be...but you are now??????? brane asplode

[Hoopy]

Fold > Call > 3bet preflop

You don't have enough info on how he plays to to know if this will be profitable especially oop. KTs isn't strong enough to squeeze here.

As played c/f flop.

[Shotglass]

garbage in, garbage out

I have that problem quite a bit

[Donachello]

Fold > Call > 3bet preflop

You don't have enough info on how he plays to to know if this will be profitable especially oop. KTs isn't strong enough to squeeze here.

As played c/f flop.

Nononononononono

Call = or maybe a little better or worse than 3betting which is > folding.

tripling here is 100% the only play you can make. Flop misses so many of his hands. Turn is a great card to barrel vs his calling range on the flop and the river is clearly a value bet.

I also think your sizing is pretty much fine in every betting spot. Nice hand.