$2NL Good Spot to Barrel Turn?

[TNreg]

I'm trying to be more aggressive on the turn. Villain is 30/5 over 100 hands. Folds to cbets about 50%. Notes on him are he limps with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ but his range is much wider obv. Barrel turn or check behind? We have some equity against Kx and Qx, he might call with his draws, and he might fold Qx and all his other trash he called the flop with. Also keep in mind effective stacks are 150bb+ deep.

WPN, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager

SB: $0.84 (42 bb)
BB: $0.36 (18 bb)
UTG+2: $0.51 (25.5 bb)
MP1: $0.44 (22 bb)
MP2: $0.31 (15.5 bb)
MP3: $3.45 (172.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $3.09 (154.5 bb)
BTN: $0.97 (48.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T A
3 folds, MP3 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.23) K Q 6 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.16, MP3 calls $0.16

Turn: ($0.55) 6 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero ?

[rpm]

in general, when we are deciding if we want to double barrel bluff (in a vacuum, so focussing on the immediate EV of the options we have with this hand, not our whole range/strategy), these are the main points of consideration (that come to my mind at least):
- what is the effect of this card on our pot equity?
- what is the effect of this card on our fold equity?
- what are our prospects on any later cards to come - ie do we have a good draw that could come in and win us a big pot, do we think we can bluff villain a very high % on later streets? etc

in this case, it's my opinion that this card is one of the worst possible cards to fire again as a bluff because:
- we don't have very much equity when we're called, and this card did not improve our pot equity (it probably decreased it)
- we don't have much fold equity. this card does not hit our range of hands strongly at all, if villain was happy enough to call the flop, he's likely going to be happy enough to call another one, as this card affects nearly nothing.
- the above two factors mean betting this card as a bluff is likely to be very unprofitable, so we would depend on either winning a big pot a lot of the time on the river, or having villain fold a very high % on the river. i don't think either of these to be true so i think bettin the turn with this hand here is a mistake.

edit: the fact that villains stats indicate he is a weaker passive player, and you are playing in a game where even the better players do way too much calling, makes me dislike this bet even more

[TNreg]

I checked behind, but second guessed myself after looking up the HH. Your explanation makes a ton of sense.

[Cobra_1878]

Tbh, I probably chk behind on the flop, 50% fold to cbet isn't high enough for me to bluff/semi-bluff this guy.

As played, take a free card on the turn. Not a very good card to bluff at as it doesn't effect villain's range too much at all, if he called flop he prob gonna call turn.

EDIT - Just seen RPM's post, so +1 to RPM.

[jackvance]

Barrel this let's say a small percentage of the time. Or even not at all. Not a good barreling spot, he calls OOP and too many hands have a little something something on this flop.