$2NL 99 - Value bet river?

[TNreg]

Kind of a trivial hand but I don't value bet the river nearly enough. Wondering if this is one of those times or if check back with showdown value is standard. Also bet sizing on f/t? Villain is 36/10 over 58 hands. No meaningful postflop stats.

WPN, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $2.32 (116 bb)
SB: $1.98 (99 bb)
BB: $0.96 (48 bb)
UTG+2: $1.52 (76 bb)
MP1: $0.85 (42.5 bb)
Hero (MP2): $2.78 (139 bb)
MP3: $1.86 (93 bb)
CO: $1.16 (58 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9 9
UTG+2 calls $0.02, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 5 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.19) T 7 4 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.10, UTG+2 calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.39) T (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25

River: ($0.89) 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero ?

[The Bean Counter]

You're good here nearly always against a villain that takes this line on a mono flop, but I doubt there's any value to be had. His range is pretty much a decent club that bricked, but there could be some stubborn 7x in there that will call a small bet (particularly as villain is likely a bit of a station). I'd go for 35c and we have an easy fold if we get raised by this guy at this level.

[WeldPhaser]

I think bean nailed it Tn. I just wanted to add that you being concerned about value betting is an awesome thing. As it's importance cannot be over stated.

how many hands do you have logged @ 2nl btw?

edit: I don't think this hand is trivial. oh, i didn't see the iso.. either-way you played it ok.

99-JJ aren't easy hands to play. they have a tendency to get us too excited, and start a spew laced hand that leave us shaking our heads

nh

[Cobra_1878]

What worse hands do you get called by?

I would also pot the flop and pot the turn.

[kickass]

prolly chk it back i think a vbet is super thin at this point

[Savy]

I'd bet 50ish, obviously a fold if he reraises as he is so passive and almost never bluffs here.

We can say that value is super thing, but it's 2nl and people do call with Ac7, Ac4, even AcX because obviously you're bluffing.

flop like 13c is better and turn I thinks fine.

[TNreg]

how many hands do you have logged @ 2nl btw?

Not much since I started tracking it, maybe ~7k in the past 10 days.

Anyway, I do think we're good here like almost always. I put him on a big club, with or without a 7 or 4. I mean I could probably gay bet the river for like 10c to always get 7 or maybe Ace high to call but who knows if that'll induce a spazz. Problem is I had just value bet two rivers previously and ended up running in to a passively-played better hand both times. Poker fucks with your mind like that in the heat of the moment.


Thanks for the comments guys.

[daven]

bigger on flop and turn, river bet is probably too thin, i mean, you could go 20c-fold I guess, so long as you are confident you won't induce a bluff

[MadMojoMonkey]

Let's never say "gay bet" ever again.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I know people are in love with a thin value bet here, but I'd just check it back.

You need to have a pretty solid read of Villain's ranges when you go for the thin value. Fat value is easier, 'cause you can go with simple statistics (e.g. a set is almost always good OTF). When you go for any value you need to have an idea of how often you expect to be called. When the value is thin, your margin for error is thinner, too. So you need to have more info (on Villain) to make a good stab at it.


Scraping every bit of value out of every hand is absolutely the long term goal, but jumping in and saying to bet a certain amount without a solid sense of how often you expect to lose the bet is speculation.

[WeldPhaser]

Scraping every bit of value out of every hand is absolutely the long term goal, but jumping in and saying to bet a certain amount without a solid sense of how often you expect to lose the bet is speculation.

this said, it can't be a bad thing he's bringing it up even if it's not the best line. at least provokes dicussion on the subject

[MadMojoMonkey]

Agreed.

I just wish we had more info on villain in OP. The 36/10 helps to know what they'll take to the flop, but the lack of post flop info means we don't have any idea how light this villain will call down.

For all the people who suggest a thin value bet here, what range to you put villain on to take to the river, and what range to call a small bet? This is going to be the primary driving factor in determining whether/how much to bet.

[Savy]

It's 2nl, we don't need reads that villain calls with loads of random crap. We need reads to suggest otherwise.

[TNreg]

It's 2nl, we don't need reads that villain calls with loads of random crap. We need reads to suggest otherwise.

[Carroters]

Bigger on flop and a little bigger on turn. I'd b/f like 34c on the river. the 8 pairs him fairly often and 7x probably doesnt find a fold. A high probably calls some amount too.

[Savy]

Bigger on flop and a little bigger on turn. I'd b/f like 34c on the river. the 8 pairs him fairly often and 7x probably doesnt find a fold. A high probably calls some amount too.

Why are we betting 34 and not higher? 50c does exactly the same and we get more value.

[Carroters]

Because his range contains a shitload of AcX hands. If these call 34 and not 50 then 34 is way better. Whether this is true or not is unclear and it's somewhat debatable where we draw the line, but my feeling is 50 folds out AcX much more often. Other really weak hands like 2c2 3c3 5c5 6c6 4X etc might find their folding point somewhere before 50c, depends how stationy he is.

[jackvance]

If you don't value bet thin enough that you sometimes get called by better hands, you're doing it wrong. Dixit Phil Galfond or whoever it was. So true, at this level you'll leave money on the table, at higher levels you polarize your range too much and become very predictable. (haven't really looked at the hand btw, just a general observation)

[Savy]

Because his range contains a shitload of AcX hands. If these call 34 and not 50 then 34 is way better. Whether this is true or not is unclear and it's somewhat debatable where we draw the line, but my feeling is 50 folds out AcX much more often. Other really weak hands like 2c2 3c3 5c5 6c6 4X etc might find their folding point somewhere before 50c, depends how stationy he is.

You're wrong, chances are he sees no difference between 34c and 50c at all.

[Carroters]

You're wrong, chances are he sees no difference between 34c and 50c at all.

Then why don't you bet 65? If he doesnt notice a 16c difference why would he notice a 15c difference? Or are you just randomly guessing about what sizes change an unknown fish's calling range?

[Carroters]

I'm just saying that in my experience 50c at least resembles a meangingful amount to a fish playing 2NL. It's two american quarters and a 1/4 of a buy in. Somewhere less than that has a decent chance at widening his calling range to Ax. Of course in reality we have no idea what ranges he calls to different sizes, just making what I think is the best population read from a 36/10 passive. I haven't played 2NL though so maybe this is inaccurate.

[Carroters]

I know people are in love with a thin value bet here, but I'd just check it back.

You need to have a pretty solid read of Villain's ranges when you go for the thin value. Fat value is easier, 'cause you can go with simple statistics (e.g. a set is almost always good OTF). When you go for any value you need to have an idea of how often you expect to be called. When the value is thin, your margin for error is thinner, too. So you need to have more info (on Villain) to make a good stab at it.


Scraping every bit of value out of every hand is absolutely the long term goal, but jumping in and saying to bet a certain amount without a solid sense of how often you expect to lose the bet is speculation.

If you take all the 36/10s over this sample at 2NL and bet this river vs them I gaurantee you'll be +EV overall. We have imperfect info, but this is all you ever get in poker (to varying degrees) If his calling range happens to only be 8X and better than that sucks, but that's far from the most likely case. There's speculation then there's making educated assumptions. The latter is what poker is all about.

[Savy]

I don't really have any major problem with betting slightly more than 50c. 64c is probably a bit much though.

[Carroters]

I don't really have any major problem with betting slightly more than 50c. 64c is probably a bit much though.

Why do you think his calling range doesn't change at all between 34 and 50 but changes between 50 and 64?

If anything 50c seems like a milestone you know?

[TNreg]

I would think a 1/3 pot bet would get a call with all worse hands after reading some of these comments. Betting less may induce a bluff and betting more would most likely fold out 7x and Ace high. Maybe I'm wrong, but 1/3 here just seems like a sweet spot with anything more being quite optimistic.