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Originally Posted by BroadWheel
River: ($0.20, 2 players) 8d
SB bets $0.04, Hero ?
You played it well. Now, call.
You only have to win 1 out of 7 calls to break even.
$0.04 / ( $0.04 + $0.24 ) = 4/28 = 1/7
Originally Posted by BroadWheel
1.Despite Villain’s smaller bet size on the Turn (1/3 instead of 1/2) should I proceed according to plan and call down or should alarm bells go off?
2.The 1/5 River bet was most confusing. How should I interpret this? What hands can I beat (Is he betting a Pocket Pair hoping I call with a lesser pair or Ace High)?
3.Should I fold the Turn or River? If so why?
4.Is there any merit in turning my hand into a bluff by raising the River (Thus, getting villain to fold AK, KJ, K10, and flushes)?
Any additional advice, thoughts and opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance everyone.
1) If it goes to showdown, then take a note of what the smaller turn bet represented. Don't take it to showdown for this info. Just assume it means he's not on the top of his range, and wants to see if you have anything playable. It went x/x OTF, so you both claimed to have at most a medium strength hand. Either could be bluffing, but there's no reason to jump to conclusions. He put a little bet OTT. The size is different than his usual... that means something... just assume it means the "normal" thing until you see otherwise.
As for the alarm bells, if Villain beats you in this hand, then he almost def. could have bet more on every street and you would still be calling. Consider it one of the cheaper learning experiences in poker, but, really, just take a note on this villain and keep calling down his tiny bets with TPGK and you'll be fine. If you re-notice that note 7 - 10 times, then stop paying him off, but don't overthink a read from one showdown.
2) The first thing to interpret is bet/(bet+pot) = 1/7 ~= 14%. This means you can profitably call with any hand in your range that beats 14% of Villain's range. You only need to win 1 out of 7 calls to break even, so if you're hand beats at least that much of his range, then you're winning. The same advice applies from the above answer as to what it means about Villain's range. Your questions are the right questions to be asking. There is no hard and fast answer to them, so getting a feel for the spread of the answers is worth your time.
3) Not as played. Your hand strength is pretty near the top of your range for the line you're taking and it's hard to see how calling down with TPGK (top pair/good kicker) is ever a bad play when the bets are "reasonable" or when you have a read that an "unreasonable" bet means Villain is weak.
4) There's not always merit to having a bluffing range at all. This is a subject which involves some algebra to demonstrate, but nothing any diligent student can't understand. It's not college level math. EVEN IF you have a bluffing range against this villain, in this spot, it's difficult to imagine the range you'd have to be bluffing with TPGK. This is almost always a perfect hand to call down an opponent. Recall that you only have to beat him 1 out of 7 calls OTR (due to his 1/5 bet size), and TPGK is in that range for the way this hand was played.
Your line is probably the most +EV line for this hand against this villain, the way the betting went, on this board, etc.
My only question is:
Why did you raise to 2.5 BB PRE? (and not some other amount)
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