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[2NL] K9o...BTN vs. SB

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  1. #1

    Default [2NL] K9o...BTN vs. SB

    FullFlush - $0.02 NL (Full Ring) - Holdem - 10 players

    Hero (BTN): $2.10
    SB: $3.15
    BB: $1.36

    SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Kd 9c

    folds around to Hero (BTN), Hero bets $0.05, SB calls $0.05, BB folds

    Flop: ($0.12, 2 players) Ks Qs 8s
    SB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($0.12, 2 players) Qh
    SB bets $0.04, Hero calls $0.04

    River: ($0.20, 2 players) 8d
    SB bets $0.04, Hero ?

    This hand was played on Full Flush Poker, so, consequently, there are no HUD Stats for Villain. However, here are the notes that I had on Villain prior to this hand: Villain had very tight Calling Range in the blinds (88-QQ, Broadways) (In this session he had previously folded his SB and BB during three orbits of BTN raises and had even completed AK in the SB behind 5 limpers). He also had a tendency of calling a flop C-Bet and folding to any future aggression. Furthermore, he had a habit of betting 1/2 Pot on the Turn with TPWK or any med. str. hand.

    Keeping this in mind, either a Bet-Check-Bet/Call or a Check-Call-Call line would be most profitable against Villian for 2 reasons:

    1.Pot control vs. a tighter range
    2.To gain 2 streets of value against a med. str. hand. Reason being that betting the Turn only encourages this type of Villian to fold worse or call with better on that particular street.

    Ultimately, I decided the Check-Call-Call line was slightly better because of reason #3:

    3.Since Villain was making the mistake of revealing hand str. via bet size, I was planning on potentially folding to a large bet (2/3 – Pot) on the Turn.

    With that being said, A couple of questions for those with more knowledge and experience than myself:

    1.Despite Villain’s smaller bet size on the Turn (1/3 instead of 1/2) should I proceed according to plan and call down or should alarm bells go off?
    2.The 1/5 River bet was most confusing. How should I interpret this? What hands can I beat (Is he betting a Pocket Pair hoping I call with a lesser pair or Ace High)?
    3.Should I fold the Turn or River? If so why?
    4.Is there any merit in turning my hand into a bluff by raising the River (Thus, getting villain to fold AK, KJ, K10, and flushes)?

    Any additional advice, thoughts and opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance everyone.
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    River: ($0.20, 2 players) 8d
    SB bets $0.04, Hero ?
    You played it well. Now, call.

    You only have to win 1 out of 7 calls to break even.
    $0.04 / ( $0.04 + $0.24 ) = 4/28 = 1/7

    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    1.Despite Villain’s smaller bet size on the Turn (1/3 instead of 1/2) should I proceed according to plan and call down or should alarm bells go off?
    2.The 1/5 River bet was most confusing. How should I interpret this? What hands can I beat (Is he betting a Pocket Pair hoping I call with a lesser pair or Ace High)?
    3.Should I fold the Turn or River? If so why?
    4.Is there any merit in turning my hand into a bluff by raising the River (Thus, getting villain to fold AK, KJ, K10, and flushes)?

    Any additional advice, thoughts and opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance everyone.
    1) If it goes to showdown, then take a note of what the smaller turn bet represented. Don't take it to showdown for this info. Just assume it means he's not on the top of his range, and wants to see if you have anything playable. It went x/x OTF, so you both claimed to have at most a medium strength hand. Either could be bluffing, but there's no reason to jump to conclusions. He put a little bet OTT. The size is different than his usual... that means something... just assume it means the "normal" thing until you see otherwise.

    As for the alarm bells, if Villain beats you in this hand, then he almost def. could have bet more on every street and you would still be calling. Consider it one of the cheaper learning experiences in poker, but, really, just take a note on this villain and keep calling down his tiny bets with TPGK and you'll be fine. If you re-notice that note 7 - 10 times, then stop paying him off, but don't overthink a read from one showdown.

    2) The first thing to interpret is bet/(bet+pot) = 1/7 ~= 14%. This means you can profitably call with any hand in your range that beats 14% of Villain's range. You only need to win 1 out of 7 calls to break even, so if you're hand beats at least that much of his range, then you're winning. The same advice applies from the above answer as to what it means about Villain's range. Your questions are the right questions to be asking. There is no hard and fast answer to them, so getting a feel for the spread of the answers is worth your time.

    3) Not as played. Your hand strength is pretty near the top of your range for the line you're taking and it's hard to see how calling down with TPGK (top pair/good kicker) is ever a bad play when the bets are "reasonable" or when you have a read that an "unreasonable" bet means Villain is weak.

    4) There's not always merit to having a bluffing range at all. This is a subject which involves some algebra to demonstrate, but nothing any diligent student can't understand. It's not college level math. EVEN IF you have a bluffing range against this villain, in this spot, it's difficult to imagine the range you'd have to be bluffing with TPGK. This is almost always a perfect hand to call down an opponent. Recall that you only have to beat him 1 out of 7 calls OTR (due to his 1/5 bet size), and TPGK is in that range for the way this hand was played.

    Your line is probably the most +EV line for this hand against this villain, the way the betting went, on this board, etc.


    My only question is:
    Why did you raise to 2.5 BB PRE? (and not some other amount)
  3. #3
    Thanks for the excellent analysis MadMojoMonkey. This advice is golden and much appreciated. I was so caught up in the bet sizing that I didn’t even consider bet/(bet + pot) and the fact that Villain was giving me a great price given my hand vs. his range. Again, thanks.

    In terms of my PFR Size (2.5x), I decided to go with a smaller size due to Villain’s tight calling range, the weakness of my hand (K9o) vs. that range (88-JJ, Broadways) and his tendency to call with this tight range no matter the open size. In addition, the BB was a tight defender as well. With that being said, if Villain folds to 2.5x the same percentage of the time he folds to a bigger size (3x, 4x, etc.) then ultimately, knowing that I lose less when he finally wakes up with a hand and decides to call (I’m likely behind PreFlop), why not open with a 2x raise size instead of 2.5x? Is all of this logical? Is a min. raise a better option than 2.5x given this criteria? Am I thinking about this all wrong and does a bigger raise make sense? Thoughts?
  4. #4
    I would definitely bet flop. There are all sorts of spade draw+ type hands to get value from (AxTs, 9x9s, etc), and a lot of his folding range has good equity against us. Not to mention we're 3 handed and flopped top pair so betting is gonna be much better for our range anyway.

    Your plan sounds nice, but villain is paying no more than $0.06 to see all 5 cards, rather than forcing him to pay at least 50% more to make a decision with his hand on the flop. It's good you're picking up on tendencies and trying to apply them, but the plan you came up with just doesn't really exploit his tendencies.

    On the river, raising is way too thin on this runout against this player, so just call.

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