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I'll agree with the consensus to fold pre.
I'll also agree with this...
Fold pre.
Call river, he can be value towning himself with worse (two pair/sets/straights)
Everything else in this thread....WTF?????
If he's a "solid reg", then the standard play here after we check is to bet. Our range just flatting in the BB is huge, and the A is such a polarizing card that he's missing a hugely hugely profitable c-bet by checking the flop. To me, that indicates that he has some kind of hand. Ax and Qx being most likely in my opinion.
He's either checking with a big hand to trap, or he's checking with a medium-ish to pot control and realize his show-down value. Heads up, btn vs blind, Ax and Qx have plenty of showdown value.
His flat on the turn kind of eliminates the big hand trap (no sets). By not c-betting the flop, and by not raising the turn, he's really eliminated alot of flush draws from his range. I'd expect a bluff on at least one of those two streets.
Our range is chock-full of single pair hands and they far outnumber the potential flush draws we might have. If he rivered two pair, or a set, he would be a fool not to raise.
As played, we have to call $5.25 and the pot has $14.75 in it. We need 26%
Let's be monumentally generous and give him some flush combos. How about KQ, KJ, K9, K8, K7, K6, K3, QJ, Q9, Q8, Q7, J9, J8, J7, 98, 97, 96, 87, 86, and 63ss. That's 20 flush combos that he could have.
If he has 20 hands that can beat us, then we need him to have approximately 7 or 8 hands that we can beat in order to have at least the 26% that we need to call. In other words, if he has 8 combos that we can beat, that's 8 out of 28 possible hands, 8/28 > 26%. Call.
AT and QT are 18 hands. Snap this shit off.
In a live game, I bet/fold here. But that's because people are showdown monkeys and calling stations. If that's you're read, then fold. But if he's a 'solid reg' online, then you're beating a hell of a lot more than 26% of his range.
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