300bb deep, OOP, bloated pot - flop goes crazy

[BorisTheSpider]

The SB is 21/17 over 25 hands. The HJ I only have 5 hands on but this is the first time he's not folded pre in those 5 hands.

The flop seems a pretty sick spot - when the SB jams, I guess I can just fold, but getting like 3.5:1 I wouldn't be folding if it was heads-up with him. Although I have not many hands on him, I'm concerned about his hand because I expect him not to feel like he has any fold equity here.

I don't feel like I can call either, because I won't have enough left on the turn to make a meaningful bet if the HJ is drawing, and if I call I give the HJ like 4:1 to call.

So I think I can only jam and hope the HJ (who, remember, is an unknown) wouldn't have flatted a set on this board. I don't expect I can get called by worse too often, although I do give him 2:1 even if I jam. I can never fold out better, so I don't want to jam, but anything else seems worse, and the HJ's line doesn't look so strong either.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $10.10 (101 bb)
SB: $12.55 (125.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $30.20 (302 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $31.25 (312.5 bb)
CO: $23.22 (232.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.30, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, SB calls $1

Flop: ($5.20) T 2 A (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.40, MP calls $4.40, CO folds, SB raises to $11.25 and is all-in

[Pelion]

Too small pre again. I'd make this $1.20 if MP opened and everyone else folded. All of your tough spots lately seem to be OOP multiway after you 3bet small pre. I would focus on this first.

As played, my flop bet would be more like $2.50-3.00. I think you can easily fold to this action with so much behind.

[abelardx]

Preflop looks OK to me but you could raise bigger seeing as how there are already 3 people in the pot, 3x+1 would be $1.50. I don't like betting so big on the flop because I think you can scare away a lot of hands that might otherwise call. I mean, we got our flop and we want to get all-in but we don't have to do it all at once.

Folding here is reasonable like Pelion said because you are deep with MP who seems happy with his hand and we only have one pair that is unlikely to improve. I think it's also fine to just go with it though. I say that because I've seen SB do the flop shove in a huge pot with a weak ace. But that was on Bovada aka 'the fish tank'. If MP was not in the hand I'd always call SB. I think MP is at least as likely to have a draw as a set after this action. So I like going with it.

TBH my thought process here would be "10nl, huge 3bet pot, tptk, all the way" and if it's a set that's a cooler.

edit: IDK maybe that's really stupid. I would definitely be tilted if I lost 3 bi on a single hand. Another possibility, because you are deep with MP, is to not 3bet AK. Play it as the ultimate connector (even tho it's not a great connector) and pot control any one pair hands from the get go. Against better players I think that's the way to go when super deep. At 10nl though I think you have to go with it. Going with tptk is consistent with the 3bet anyhow, and even though you could definitely get coolered, you're never doing that bad here. But take a break if you lose this hand regardless.

[Micro2Macro]

'I don't feel like I can call either, because I won't have enough left on the turn to make a meaningful bet if the HJ is drawing, and if I call I give the HJ like 4:1 to call.'

'can never fold out better, so I don't want to jam'

notice the fault in your logic here?

[griffey24]

Why is jamming the only option here?

I would just go with your feel vs SB. It sounds like MP is somewhat of a fish (playing every hand so far), so he likely has Ax or some draw. If he's fishy could even be some lame draw, gutter or something.

If you think you're crushed by SB, then I suppose you could fold, but I'd rather iso vs SB and approx. min re-raise to like $17.75 or so. If somehow MP comes back over the top, it's conceivable I could find a fold despite the amazing odds we'd be getting, given how dead we're likely drawing.

What's this talk about folding out better? Ofcourse we're never folding out better, but we're NOT bluffing. We're value-raising.

[BorisTheSpider]

Why is jamming the only option here?

I would just go with your feel vs SB. It sounds like MP is somewhat of a fish (playing every hand so far), so he likely has Ax or some draw. If he's fishy could even be some lame draw, gutter or something.

I think you misread it - it's the first type MP _hasn't_ folded pre in 5 hands, so as far as we know so far, he's unlikely to be a huge fish.

If you think you're crushed by SB, then I suppose you could fold, but I'd rather iso vs SB and approx. min re-raise to like $17.75 or so. If somehow MP comes back over the top, it's conceivable I could find a fold despite the amazing odds we'd be getting, given how dead we're likely drawing.

Hmm, perhaps I should think about this, I felt like firstly any raise less than jamming was too small to isolate because of the hugeness of the pot at this point, and also, I didn't really think I could find a fold getting such odds if MP jams, but as you said if he does, we're likely drawing wafer thin.

What's this talk about folding out better? Of course we're never folding out better, but we're NOT bluffing. We're value-raising.

Readless, I'm not sure I can value raise here - the pot is 250bb and I'd be expecting MP to call another 180bb with worse. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but it doesn't look to me like I can value raise.

[griffey24]

Yep misread sorry! Well 5 folds doesn't mean much, but yes discounts him being a fish for sure.

You don't think min raising here is enough of a raise. MP is facing ~$7 raise from SB AND a ~$7 raise from you when it comes back around to him. That's ~140bbs, and that' is huge.

Again we're not talking about value raising in the sense that we think he will necessarily continue wtih worse. But as you say, the pot is huge and we're wanting to make it HU with SB and take it down now. Because like you said, if we just flat, then MP is getting great odds on a call with his draws.

[BorisTheSpider]

'I don't feel like I can call either, because I won't have enough left on the turn to make a meaningful bet if the HJ is drawing, and if I call I give the HJ like 4:1 to call.'

'can never fold out better, so I don't want to jam'

notice the fault in your logic here?

Not really, and I've been thinking about it for quite a while! I am sure there is a fault, I just can't see what it is.

Let's give the HJ [KJs+,KhTh,Kh9h,QJs,QhTh,JhTh,KJo+,QJo] then he has 22% vs my hand. If I flat the SB's shove, he can correctly call with quite a wide range of hands that have a decent amount of equity against me, if he won't call with a bare gutter he's got more like 32%, so even when I jam he's not far from being able to call correctly.

Perhaps what you're saying is that if I flat I really under-rep my hand and can look more like a draw (even though preflop doesn't really fit with this) and the CO can then jam worse believing my call to be dead money? As Griffey said, it's probably quite a fine line, but I think if I flat I have just enough left that MP could conceivably feel like he still has some fold equity if he jams.

[BorisTheSpider]

Preflop looks OK to me but you could raise bigger seeing as how there are already 3 people in the pot, 3x+1 would be $1.50.

Yeah, agreed - preflop is awful. I need to be more systematic about my preflop sizing in multiway spots like this, and I need to feel happier about just taking it down pre - I often size smaller than I should because I don't want everyone to just fold pre, but actually, especially with AK, that's an entirely desirable outcome, and the pot is already a nice size pre so I should just bet bigger, have more chance to isolate and have more chance to just take it down pre.

I don't like betting so big on the flop because I think you can scare away a lot of hands that might otherwise call.

Hmm, I agree to an extent, my concern is that if I bet say $3 and MP calls then the SB will be getting 11 to 3 on a call, so I don't like to give those odds, but my actual sizing doesn't exactly make the price _much_ worse (he still gets over 3:1). I also feel like if I bet smaller, I still get 3:1 if the SB jams, which makes it tough to fold and I have MP still to act behind me - that said, if I then call the SBs jam and MP comes over the top, I have a little more left behind and it's marginally easier to see folding in that situation.

I mean, we got our flop and we want to get all-in but we don't have to do it all at once.

I'm glad you edited your post later - I really think trying to get all-in, even in a bloated pot, with 300bb behind would be a huge mistake here. We might end up getting all-in when the kind of shit that happened on the flop happens, but I don't think it should be the plan, however, the bloated size of the pot and being OOP makes it a really tough spot because any kind of meaningful flop bet sets us up for a huge turn pot then we either have to commit to getting it in or just fold, because we really can't bet (or c/c) the turn without being OK with calling a lot of safe looking rivers.

TBH my thought process here would be "10nl, huge 3bet pot, tptk, all the way" and if it's a set that's a cooler.

That seems fine 100bb deep, maybe even like 130bb, but this deep I don't feel like getting stacked by a set can be thought of as a cooler. I mean, yeah, it seems a somewhat unlikely flop for MP to flat a set on, but we know nothing about him yet.

Another possibility, because you are deep with MP, is to not 3bet AK.

That does actually seem reasonable occasionally if, as you said, we play it like a connector and don't get overcommited to a one pair hand. I'm not sure what other people think of flatting here, but by default I prefer to isolate or take it down pre.

Going with tptk is consistent with the 3bet anyhow

This deep, I disagree.

[BorisTheSpider]

You don't think min raising here is enough of a raise. MP is facing ~$7 raise from SB AND a ~$7 raise from you when it comes back around to him. That's ~140bbs, and that' is huge.

Yeah, it is, but the pot would be ~380bb and I think a lot of people are calling that even without odds just because of the bloated pot. It's certainly better than flatting, I'm just not sure it's big enough to isolate us with SB a lot of the time.

Then again, maybe trying to isolate is not actually best - I mean, if SB has us crushed, and we're not folding (which I don't feel like we can given the odds we're getting, even though it's entirely possible SB does have us crushed), it's better to keep MP along with his draws by raising to a size that makes a call incorrect for him, but doesn't make him fold them.

[griffey24]

Not really, and I've been thinking about it for quite a while! I am sure there is a fault, I just can't see what it is.

Let's give the HJ [KJs+,KhTh,Kh9h,QJs,QhTh,JhTh,KJo+,QJo] then he has 22% vs my hand. If I flat the SB's shove, he can correctly call with quite a wide range of hands that have a decent amount of equity against me, if he won't call with a bare gutter he's got more like 32%, so even when I jam he's not far from being able to call correctly.

Perhaps what you're saying is that if I flat I really under-rep my hand and can look more like a draw (even though preflop doesn't really fit with this) and the CO can then jam worse believing my call to be dead money? As Griffey said, it's probably quite a fine line, but I think if I flat I have just enough left that MP could conceivably feel like he still has some fold equity if he jams.

I really don't think you can call and then call a jam after. The only worse that will be shipped is going to be a combo draw, pair+FD or gutter+FD. Plus sets and maybe AK if he has that.

My estimates are that the pot is around 56.60 and we have about 17.60 to call, so we need to be good 23.7%.

Versus just MP's range:
AcKd 30.90%
TT,AA,AK,KhJh,9hTh,ThJh,QhJh,22 69.10%

BUT we're not against JUST MP, we're against SB's shove too. Even though he's not full stack, it definitely screws up our equity somewhat.

AcKd 14.07%
TT,AA,AK,KhJh,9hTh,ThJh,22 50.05%
22,TT,AQ,KhJh,9hTh,ThJh,QhJh,ATs 35.88%

It's close, assuming our equity is somewhere between these two given he's short, but you probably don't have odds to call/call shove imo.

[BorisTheSpider]

Hmm, I agree. I can't call/call, and I can't check this flop with 4 cards out there, so I think perhaps I should have just bet/folded to the SBs shove given my position, and especially since when I bet the flop quite big into 2 players I don't look like I'm messing around so a. The CO can't flat too wide unless he's really fishy which we can't assume yet and b. Especially with so little behind, the SB isn't gonna jam over the CO call without a nutted hand.

[abelardx]

Some of your comments, Boris, make it sound like you were 3betting pre and betting big on the flop to take it down right there, that you were betting to make people fold. Of course betting to make people fold when we have a good hand doesn't make sense.

At 10 nl especially 3betting a multiway pot preflop has pretty much no chance of taking it down. Nor can you expect to weed out all the 'bad hands'. What happens is that all the weak players who are gambling are now even more excited about the hand because the pot is bigger. You just arouse their interest.

The main issue here is pot management. You have a good hand but you don't want to play a big pot because that puts you in a difficult spot but you are the one who created the big pot. You must have made some serious mistakes before this point in the hand because you're driving the hand and you still don't like where you ended up.

Lastly, you underestimate the spazz factor at 10nl I believe. If we could magically know people's 'true ranges' here I believe going with this hand would be massively +ev, even though we could easily be coolered or get outdrawn.

But if you are thinking about 'betting to take it down' when you have no intention of giving up when called, that is a serious misunderstanding that you need to address. Pot management is a key NL skill. Did you read No Limit Holdem Theory and Practice? That's a really good book that talks about it. In any case, sorry to criticize you, but I think the whole pot management thing is a big issue that you might need to rethink to help your game above and beyond this one hand.

[abelardx]

How did the hijack get his stack if he hasn't seen a flop yet? Did you just get your stack in the last orbit?

[BorisTheSpider]

How did the hijack get his stack if he hasn't seen a flop yet? Did you just get your stack in the last orbit?

Zoom.

[BorisTheSpider]

Some of your comments, Boris, make it sound like you were 3betting pre and betting big on the flop to take it down right there, that you were betting to make people fold. Of course betting to make people fold when we have a good hand doesn't make sense.

The pot is 10bb pre when the action gets to me, my average in my database for each time I have AK is like 1.5bb, so taking this down pre is a seriously good result.

At 10 nl especially 3betting a multiway pot preflop has pretty much no chance of taking it down. Nor can you expect to weed out all the 'bad hands'. What happens is that all the weak players who are gambling are now even more excited about the hand because the pot is bigger. You just arouse their interest.

Well, I think this is true with the bad sizing I used, but if I make it 18-20bb I think I have a better chance to at least isolate.

The main issue here is pot management. You have a good hand but you don't want to play a big pot because that puts you in a difficult spot but you are the one who created the big pot. You must have made some serious mistakes before this point in the hand because you're driving the hand and you still don't like where you ended up.

I agree, I think Pelion is entirely right that betting too small pre was what got me in this spot.

Lastly, you underestimate the spazz factor at 10nl I believe. If we could magically know people's 'true ranges' here I believe going with this hand would be massively +ev, even though we could easily be coolered or get outdrawn.

Meh, again, maybe 100bb deep or even a bit deeper, but 300bb deep, whether people can really spaz-call a flop shove with worse this deep often enough for it to be correct, I doubt.

But if you are thinking about 'betting to take it down' when you have no intention of giving up when called, that is a serious misunderstanding that you need to address.

When you say betting to take it down, are you talking about preflop, or the flop?

Preflop, happy to take it down, happy to get one caller, less happy (but still ok) with two callers and playing a flop.

OTF, I'm pretty happy with one caller, and I'm not in a terrible spot with 2 unless the turn is really bad for me, so I'm not betting to "take it down", I'm betting for value. The action I got though doesn't bode well for TPTK and when the SB check-shoves I think I've had just about all the value I can handle!

As for pot management, well - do you check this flop vs. two players? Do you bet/fold when the SB shoves? Managing the pot size (over multiple streets) OOP in a massively bloated pot when you have a marginal hand that's too good to just c/f is not really an option, especially when literally half the deck is an awful turn for us - for sure, you can bet/fold flop, and I actually feel like that's probably best.

[Pelion]

The pot is 10bb pre when the action gets to me, my average in my database for each time I have AK is like 1.5bb, so taking this down pre is a seriously good result.

While this is true (and we've talked about it already) that doesn't mean you are bluffing. I actually think a lot of your thought process in this hand has been a bit confused because you can't decide if we are bluffing or not.

[We have a tonne of showdown value pre and post] + [We aren't ever getting villain to fold a better hand] = [We cannot possibly be bluffing]

If we aren't bluffing then we are value betting. We can still be rooting for folds when we are value betting, but those folds are never going to come from better hands than ours.

[abelardx]

Preflop I'd give both SB and MP a range of pairs, suited aces, AT+, broadway, and all sc's. Probably that's a bit wide but they could have any of those hands.

On the flop, SB checks, you pot it, MP calls, CO folds, and SB jams in a huge pot. You and MP both have like 250 bb behind.

So we need SB's 'check/jam in a huge pot multi-way' range and MP's 'flatting a psb' and 'calling a shove' range in order to check the EV of going with it. We don't have to shove of course but it makes the EV calc doable.

I think SB could check/jam with any A, any flush draw, and even some broadway gutters, but let's give him only the two pairs from his original range, a pair of aces with J kicker or better, all the bigger made hands of course, broadway sfd's, and broadway Txhh.

Let's say MP flats with AJ, two pair or better, or any flush draw, and calls a shove with AK, made hands that beat us, and sfd's (which include all his nfd's as well).

What is the EV of a shove?

After his flop call, MP's range is: AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,Th 9h, 9h8h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,5h4h,4h3h,3h2h,AJo+, which is 45 combos after card removal.

So MP folds 26 of his 45 combos and calls a shove with a range of: AA,TT,22,AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AKo, which is 19 combos.

So your fold equity agains MP is 58%.

Your equity against SB is 50%:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ah2hTs
Equity Win Tie
SB 49.83% 42.70% 7.13%
BB 50.17% 43.04% 7.13%

and your equity against both together is 14%:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Ah2hTs
Equity Win Tie
MP3 54.78% 48.32% 6.45%
SB 31.47% 29.41% 2.07%
BB 13.75% 6.50% 7.25%

Before the shove the pot is 5.20 + 4.40 + 4.40 + 11.25 = 25.25. We have 24.50 behind, MP has us covered, and it is 6.85 to call SB's shove.

After we shove and get called by MP the pot is 25.25 + 24.50 + 24.50 = 74.25.

EV(we jam and MP folds) = .5(25.25) - .5(6.85) = $9.20.

EV(we jam and MP calls) = .14(49.75) - .86(24.50) = 6.97 - 21.07 = -$14.1

So altogether the EV of a shove is:

.58(9.2) - .42(14.1) = 5.34 - 5.92 = -$0.58.

So it's pretty marginal. I think our EV is actually a little higher with the spaz factor but it's clearly marginal. Altogether it looks like folding is best. Or if you just love variance you could also call. It would be pretty awesome to be sitting on a 750 bb stack. Defo screenshot-worthy.

[abelardx]

Oh, that's not right. If we shove and MP calls, there's a huge side pot between us and MP where we have much better equity against him alone than against both together. I can't do any more math right now, but that probably confirms my earlier suspicions that going with it is significantly +EV, maybe 40-50 blinds even, but comes with humongously huge variance. This is why we have BRM strategies folks.

[abelardx]

Cliffs:

SB's check/jam range:
AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,AT o+

MP's flat flop range:
AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,9h 8h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,5h4h,4h3h,3h2h,AJo+, 45 combos

MP's call a flop shove range:
AA,TT,22,AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AKo, 19 combos

Our fold equity against MP if we shove: 26/45 = 58%

Our equity against SB alone: 50%

Our equity against MP alone: 29%

Our equity against both together: 14%

Pot size after SB shoves: $25.25 and $6.85 to us to call

Three-way main pot size if we shove and MP calls: $38.95 incl our bet of $6.85

Side pot size if we shove and MP calls: $35.30 incl our bet of $17.65

Just to give us some idea of where we're at in this hand, the EV of a flop shove is:

EV(we shove and MP folds) = .5 * 25.25 - .5 * 6.85 = $9.20

Main Pot EV(we shove and MP calls) = .14 * 32.10 - .86 * 6.85 = -$1.35

Side Pot EV(we shove and MP calls) = .29 * 17.65 - .71 * 17.65 = -$7.41

Total EV of shove (with these approximate ranges):

.58 * 9.20 - .42 * (1.35 + 7.41) = 5.34 - 3.68 = $1.66

Well not that much after all, and folding is certainly reasonable given the huge variance. But it does look to be +EV and if you're rolled for it and want to play a potentially epic hand, I say go for it.

[BorisTheSpider]

Thanks for doing all that - interesting. I don't necessarily agree entirely with your ranges, and I might redo this for myself with slightly different ranges later.

Suffice it to say, I now have notes on MP (what he called my terrible jam with is not in the range you have given him).

[Micro2Macro]

Cliffs:

SB's check/jam range:
AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,AT o+

MP's flat flop range:
AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,9h 8h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,5h4h,4h3h,3h2h,AJo+, 45 combos

MP's call a flop shove range:
AA,TT,22,AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AKo, 19 combos

Our fold equity against MP if we shove: 26/45 = 58%

Our equity against SB alone: 50%

Our equity against MP alone: 29%

Our equity against both together: 14%

Pot size after SB shoves: $25.25 and $6.85 to us to call

Three-way main pot size if we shove and MP calls: $38.95 incl our bet of $6.85

Side pot size if we shove and MP calls: $35.30 incl our bet of $17.65

Just to give us some idea of where we're at in this hand, the EV of a flop shove is:

EV(we shove and MP folds) = .5 * 25.25 - .5 * 6.85 = $9.20

Main Pot EV(we shove and MP calls) = .14 * 32.10 - .86 * 6.85 = -$1.35

Side Pot EV(we shove and MP calls) = .29 * 17.65 - .71 * 17.65 = -$7.41

Total EV of shove (with these approximate ranges):

.58 * 9.20 - .42 * (1.35 + 7.41) = 5.34 - 3.68 = $1.66

Well not that much after all, and folding is certainly reasonable given the huge variance. But it does look to be +EV and if you're rolled for it and want to play a potentially epic hand, I say go for it.

no just no.

you are gaining almost 20 big blinds on this single play...... throwing that away is a disaster. your bb/100 isn't 50.

if you can't handle the variance you are playing too high.

Also mp folds half the time under your assumptions, and we are flipping vs small blind. It's not like we are having to get it in and lose 80% of the time. This is not high variance. This is just a big pot. This is also a cash game.

[abelardx]

Thanks for doing all that - interesting. I don't necessarily agree entirely with your ranges, and I might redo this for myself with slightly different ranges later.

Suffice it to say, I now have notes on MP (what he called my terrible jam with is not in the range you have given him).

If his hand wasn't in the range, doesn't that make the jam good? Did I leave out some hands?

Could you pm me what he had? I like to keep track of what people show up with in weird spots.

[BorisTheSpider]

You're set up not to receive PMs. Happy to tell you what he had in PM if you turn them on.

[abelardx]

Argh, how do I turn on PM's?

edit: I tried to pm one of the mods to turn on my pms, but either they don't have them on (all but Pascal) or I'm not allowed to send a pm. So if a moderator sees this could you please turn on my pms or tell me what I have to do? I didn't see any option for it on the profile page. Thanks.

[BorisTheSpider]

Tell you what, this thread has kind of run its course anyway, and I don't think a spoiler will hurt it too much, so I'll just post it.

Spoiler: Show

He stationed off my gross 250bb flop reshove with AQ - good lad.

[abelardx]

Tell you what, this thread has kind of run its course anyway, and I don't think a spoiler will hurt it too much, so I'll just post it.

Spoiler: Show

He stationed off my gross 250bb flop reshove with AQ - good lad.

Epic. Did you get a screenshot?

edit: That's awesome! That made my day.

[BorisTheSpider]

Epic. Did you get a screenshot?

LOL. Unfortunately not.

[BorisTheSpider]

Here's my reworking of it:

SBs check-jamming range:

AA,TT,22,AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QhJh,QhTh,JhTh ,AKo - Our equity 32%


MPs flat the flop range:

AKs,AcQc,AdQd,AsQs,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,Ac2c,Ad2d,As2s,
KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QhJh,QhTh,JhTh,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,7h6h, AQo+

I've removed some of the smaller SCs I don't think he can have pre, and I have assumed that he won't flat a set on this board, but to allow for the possibility that he might sometimes flat a set or similar, I left the two pair in his flatting range. His flatting range here is 39 combos.

MPs flop reshove calling range:

AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AKo - Our equity 30%. 20 combos.

In a 3-way pot here, we have 13% equity.

MP folds 49% to a jam.

EV(We shove, MP folds) = (0.32 * $25.25) - (0.68 * $6.85) = $8.08 - $4.66 = $3.42

Main pot EV (We shove, MP calls) = (0.13 * 32.10) - (0.87 * 6.85) = $4.17 - $5.96 = -$1.79

Side Pot EV (We shove, MP calls) = (0.30 * 17.65) - (0.70 * 17.65) = $5.30 - $12.36 = -$7.06


Total EV = (0.49 * $3.42) + (0.51 * -$8.85) = $1.68 - $4.51 = -$2.83

So I don't think it's +EV. My ranges might not be quite right, but bear in mind I actually discounted MP from having sets, if he can flat a set here the situation is even worse than I have estimated because we have less equity in the side pot, and also less fold equity when we shove.

[abelardx]

no just no.

you are gaining almost 20 big blinds on this single play...... throwing that away is a disaster. your bb/100 isn't 50.

if you can't handle the variance you are playing too high.

Also mp folds half the time under your assumptions, and we are flipping vs small blind. It's not like we are having to get it in and lose 80% of the time. This is not high variance. This is just a big pot. This is also a cash game.

This is a good point. Thanks M2M.

[Micro2Macro]

This is a good point. Thanks M2M.