2/4: buy the river

[pocketfours]

Villain is decent reg.

Hero ($400)
BB ($539)
CO ($548)
BU ($400)
Dealt to Hero K Q
fold, BU raises to $10, Hero raises to $34, fold, BU calls $24
FLOP ($72) J 8 4
Hero bets $48, BU calls $48
TURN ($168) J 8 4 4
Hero checks, BU checks
RIVER ($168) J 8 4 4 K
Hero bets $116, BU raises to $318 (AI), Hero?

[Razvan729]

Isnt a clear fold? You said he is decent reg, he must realize that w/ 25% equity needed you will call very often so i think it is a value raise. i would call w/ AA, even though i think that would be close.
Would be strange to see him bluff his fd and Jx on this board

[Renton]

This seems like one of those turns that you should theoretically be barreling a good bit. Not because it's a particularly good card for you but just because your range to bet that wet flop was stronger than normal and his range is so wide. There are so many auto-floats on the flop for villain that are put in a pretty lame spot when they face a bet on the turn. Anyway I'm not saying I'm sure you should do it with KQ but I would certainly have considered it.

On the river I guess I would shrug and call. It's just so statistically unlikely that he has a better hand at this point. I've tried bluffs in villain's spot on the basis that "why would he expect a bluff" and I always get called. I don't like making big pots and folding when his range is such a question mark. He could also have the same hand?

[griffey24]

What's villains open? Call 3b %? Lots of FD's?

[pocketfours]

This seems like one of those turns that you should theoretically be barreling a good bit. Not because it's a particularly good card for you but just because your range to bet that wet flop was stronger than normal and his range is so wide. There are so many auto-floats on the flop for villain that are put in a pretty lame spot when they face a bet on the turn. Anyway I'm not saying I'm sure you should do it with KQ but I would certainly have considered it.

On the river I guess I would shrug and call. It's just so statistically unlikely that he has a better hand at this point. I've tried bluffs in villain's spot on the basis that "why would he expect a bluff" and I always get called. I don't like making big pots and folding when his range is such a question mark. He could also have the same hand?

This is one of those spots I never figured out. I'm pretty damn sure villain knows he is repping KJ or weird play. The problem here is that I actually wouldn't bluff this river, so I'm really well defined in my own mind. I'm leaning on calling with an unexploitable freqency. Can't imagine not betting river either, even though I just kinda said myself that I shouldn't?

[Alexos]

What's his check-back range on turn? It might be terrible nowadays, but I'd be betting my whole range there usually lol.

[pocketfours]

random pairs, delayed floats etc imo. I actually checked back with Q9cc in this hand with a plan to bet the river. When he bet I thougt I'll just go for the mindfuck. Felt like my play was maginal or even bad as he might not buy KJ.

[jyms]

Funny, before reading P4s answer it seemed to me he was just shoving over what seemed like your pot control line on the turn on a pretty normal 2 barrel card. The shove felt exactly like he was trying to get you off of a K, not get value from it. I think I'm calling with most K's as well

[Alexos]

random pairs, delayed floats etc imo. I actually checked back with Q9cc in this hand with a plan to bet the river. When he bet I thougt I'll just go for the mindfuck. Felt like my play was maginal or even bad as he might not buy KJ.

Your perceived check-back range will be pretty weak though on turn, repping like 8x or midpair, and on most rivers that range won't really be strong enough to rep a value bet. That's why I prefer to bet it, then you can barrel a ton of rivers too.

Your play is mindfuck indeed, it's one of those unbalanced spots that (i think) get you a lot of folds even though you rep so little.

[pocketfours]

Your perceived check-back range will be pretty weak though on turn, repping like 8x or midpair, and on most rivers that range won't really be strong enough to rep a value bet. That's why I prefer to bet it, then you can barrel a ton of rivers too.

Don't see any compelling reason to bet turn with Jx as villain clearly doesn't have diamonds or T9. Is it common to c/c turn with TT/99/8x, seems pretty bad to me. Besides a river bluff can be significantly smaller to be in line with a weak and thin bet, it's not very common to be checkraised imo. By betting the turn you might be exploited by a wide c/r range, although it's not a very common strategy admittedly.