A WTF flop spot with a draw.

[Carroters]

Only have like 9 hands on villain, his sizing seems somewhat reggy from preflop. Other than that I'm readless. I expected him to c/f or c/c this flop most of the time. When he does this I feel like it's not too likely to be a bluff given most guys are just going to c-bet and this is a board where I have plenty draws that may not fold. I kind of want to fold to this, but that seems deeply wrong. I hate 3-betting to get it in here since he's going to have better draws QJ and sets mostly if he doesn't have air, which I wouldn't expect to see too often. Even shit like KT is doing fine vs me. Calling also seems meh. Thoughts?


No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($190.20)
SB ($102.20)
BB ($97.35)
UTG ($101.50)
MP ($61.15)
CO ($100.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 8
2 folds, CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.50) Q, J, 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.60, CO raises $14.50, Hero?

[d0zer]

what's so meh about calling? You has position. I can't imagine ever folding.

[Carroters]

Yeah I did call, but felt like I'd have to fold to turn bets pretty damn often and that there was a load of reverse implied odds from better FDs.

[Carroters]

The price I'm getting is awesome though and if he checks a future street I can fire since he'll value bet all his nizzles on each street and only checkair or busto draws on the river. Sound like this plan is the way forward? I just hate that on diamond turns I get stacked way more often than I'd like.

[d0zer]

I'm not entirely sure of this, and it is extremely player dependent....but I think you see people take that weird c/r with initiative line more with nuts (usually) or air (sometimes), but rarely draws.

I suppose he could be considering AKdd, KTdd, ATdd as the nuts, but I'm inclined to discount these hands at least somewhat and that's only 3 combos so I'm not overly concerned about getting flush over flushed the few times it does come in on the turn. Sounds like that's what happened?

[Carroters]

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($190.20)
SB ($102.20)
BB ($97.35)
UTG ($101.50)
MP ($61.15)
CO ($100.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 8
2 folds, CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.50) Q, J, 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4.60, CO raises $14.50, Hero calls $9.90

Turn: ($35.50) 2 (2 players)
CO bets $25, Hero folds

Total pot: $35.50

[Carroters]

Idk I do see draws do this sometimes but I guess sets and QJ are a good 18 combos anyways, so they're going to make upa good part of his range. K you've convinced me calling the flop is good.

[Carroters]

In which case I should call the turn LDO implied odds makes this a call...facepalm.

[Ravageur]

Yeah call flop, turn is close, but still probably a call. Kind of annoying since a few draws dominate you hard so I'd definitely fold this OOP but in pos makes it ok.

[sauce123]

this is a spot where almost everyone makes the mistake of not jamming. just jam. so many things have to 'go right' for calling to be best. with this small of a sample just seize your equity and your fold equity on the flop

[shakesss]

I dont like calling here coz i hate folding the turn and a turn ship has a lot less fold equity and ull never really get the right price to call the turn. I agree with dozer that some ppl at 100NL will take this line with the middle of their value range coz they dun want to call down Q10 on this board oop. That c/r is pretty exploitable coz their raise/folding sometimes and coz ur perceived range is always either a combo draw or a strong value hand. Against their nutted range u have a lot of pot equity and if some ppl are doing this with the middle of their value range then shipping flop is always better.


Board: Qd Jd 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.664% 41.66% 00.00% 16499 0.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 58.336% 58.34% 00.00% 23101 0.00 { KK+, 66, AdKd, AQs, AdTd, Ad6d, KdTd, QJs, AQo, QJo }


If ur plan is to call the flop and fold the turn its pretty -EV coz u gotta call 10 into 25 and ur not getting the right price for ur pot equity and not all ur outs are clean.

I would also rather 3b this preflop against a new player on the table. It also protects u from getting squeezed from the blinds which would be quite frequent given the way its been played out. However if u only 3b a polarized range then probably flatting is best.

[ilikeaces86]

Shove and note what he calls with but he will fold a decent chunk of the time.

[paratrooper99]

only calling flop if intend to jam turn with any card. jamming otherwise.

[Carroters]

Calling flop to jam over turn bets readless is a pretty horrible plan. I didn't love 3 betting the flop, but jamming does seem a lot better.

[Carroters]

Shakess - In terms of my whole range/game plan: I think it's a mistake to 3-bet this hand when I can flat it profitably in position yet there are a load of hands I can't yet make just as good 3-bet bluffs. Play as many hands while being +EV yo.

[griffey24]

Straight flush draw + 9 high + we're "behind" to his KT/9T if he shoves over us = I'm just shoving flop with my equity and fold equity.

[Ravageur]

yeah i think i make a big mistake giving strat in this forum sometimes because I assume these Stars games are super tough and uber nitty. In the euro games I'm fistpump getting it in here.

[Lukie]

Calling flop to jam over turn bets readless is a pretty horrible plan. I didn't love 3 betting the flop, but jamming does seem a lot better.

actually, I don't mind calling flop to shove the turn, especially because it's not too terribly unlikely to induce a massive b/f mistake from a better hand.

my favorite line is just to try to get it in on the flop for the reasons sauce mentioned, but also for metagame reasons to protect your 66, QJ, and rare JJ+ combos