Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,291,000 Posts!
Poker ForumFull Ring NL Hold'em

200nl AA raised OTF

Results 1 to 9 of 9
  1. #1

    Default 200nl AA raised OTF

    villain is xJVL_STARR69x. seems to be running pretty taggish. Hero has been either running absurdly nitty or absurdly laggy dependant on which tables villain is on. Hero and villain are probably pretty clueless on how each other plays postflop due to small sample size. River is a pretty bad or good spot to bluff dependant on which level villain is on and I'm not sure if villain will value shove worse.

    thoughts on every street are appreciated as well.

    Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

    Hero (UTG+1): $200.00
    UTG+2: $200.00
    MP1: $203.00
    MP2: $242.80
    CO: $234.75
    BTN: $95.00
    SB: $201.00
    BB: $100.00
    UTG: $118.05

    Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG+1 with A A
    1 fold, Hero raises to $6, UTG+2 calls $6, 6 folds

    Flop: ($15.00) J T 2 (2 players)
    Hero bets $9, UTG+2 raises to $28, Hero calls $19

    Turn: ($71.00) 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $39, Hero calls $39

    River: ($149.00) 3 (2 players)
    Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $127 all in, Hero?
  2. #2
    rpm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    3,084
    Location
    maaaaaaaaaaate
    i think we have to fold somewhere. i cannot think of one worse hand in a nitty UTG+2 flatting range that could take this line except perhaps AK. but the river seems incredibly thin with AK given how little we are going to be folding when we have such a strong range. also, this line makes no sense for any worse one pair hands (as QQ/KK only get action versus higher pairs and sets) and our NFD blocker rules out things like AsKs. i'd be surprised if his river range was anything but JJ,TT.

    so i know i think we need to fold. i'm not sure which street though.
  3. #3
    Fold flop
  4. #4
    Yeah you're probably ok folding this flop
  5. #5
    I don't hate a flop fold
  6. #6
    Wow. So, few fish questions.
    Why wouldn't villain take that line with QQ, KK (and maybe but highly unlikely coldcalling AA if he expects a squeeze from someone)?
    How likely is for villain to take this line with KQ of spades? I smell busted draw all the way.
    Since villains raise most clearly represents a set, why do villains, especially solid regs/tags, almost always raise flop with their sets? Like, way more often then raising a turn?
    What hands would villain, in this particular spot, mix up in his flop raising range, so it doesn't become transparent that all of his flop raises are nuts? Flush/straight draw? JT? Jx?
    What do you make of villains turn bet size? Any reason to bet bigger here?
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Nekrogovner View Post
    Wow. So, few fish questions.
    Why wouldn't villain take that line with QQ, KK (and maybe but highly unlikely coldcalling AA if he expects a squeeze from someone)?
    How likely is for villain to take this line with KQ of spades? I smell busted draw all the way.
    Since villains raise most clearly represents a set, why do villains, especially solid regs/tags, almost always raise flop with their sets? Like, way more often then raising a turn?
    What hands would villain, in this particular spot, mix up in his flop raising range, so it doesn't become transparent that all of his flop raises are nuts? Flush/straight draw? JT? Jx?
    What do you make of villains turn bet size? Any reason to bet bigger here?
    Why wouldn't villain take that line with QQ, KK (and maybe but highly unlikely coldcalling AA if he expects a squeeze from someone)?

    Because he would be overrepresenting his hand, doing that profitable you kinda have to have enough metagame going on for you to belive that villain would call you with Jx type of hands, and you would have to know its in his PFR range from UTG+1.

    How likely is for villain to take this line with KQ of spades? I smell busted draw all the way.

    Very unlikely, 100bbs deep coldcalling KQs vs UTG+1 would mean trouble, villain would be better off 3betting preflop. Raising the flop, giving us a calling range of QQ+, and a raising range sets/?AsXs?, where we would likely fold QQ+ to a turnbet when draw completes.

    Since villains raise most clearly represents a set, why do villains, especially solid regs/tags, almost always raise flop with their sets? Like, way more often then raising a turn?

    This is individual, flopraises are very likely to be seen as bullshitraises, and often they are. Also turnraises look stronger in general. And it also depends alot on history/metagame vs the villain

    What hands would villain, in this particular spot, mix up in his flop raising range, so it doesn't become transparent that all of his flop raises are nuts? Flush/straight draw? JT? Jx?

    It depends. Some villains never bluff here, we have a strong range UTG+1 and its very likely villain just calls to setmine. Some do it with theyr underpairs and some people have a wider range. Generally people just want to grind it out tho.

    What do you make of villains turn bet size? Any reason to bet bigger here?

    Our range is pretty defined here, and its pretty obvious villain dont want us to fold, he is LDO not afraid of the draw hitting and he might even think he is repping the draw and hope we spazzshove.

    Hope that helped, and if you think you have better answers, feel free to comment on my thoughts
  8. #8
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,423
    Location
    house
    since i don't feel like logging into moocow, despite it's awesomeness called down villian had AQo

    ?wut
  9. #9
    Renton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    8,863
    Location
    a little town called none of your goddamn business
    need some reads on how often he raises the flop, and how often he wins showdowns after raising the flop. I believe you showed me this info in person and I argued for a call. It certainly looks like a flop or turn fold absent any reads. I dunno about the flop though, I think people are capable of having KK here, and then slowing down on turns.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •