How do professionals pay the bills, when on long loosing streaks? Let’s give our fictional poker pro a $6000 bank roll and assume he will be playing at the $200NL level.
Further, let’s give our hero better than average skills, but nothing earth shattering. Also, for our example, let’s say that in an average week he can win $600 but is prone to down swings of $600 per week as well.
Regular expenses for our hero total $1800.
Note that in the following examples the hero never posts a losing month but is in all actuality a “winning” poker player; even during this one year “down turn in his average winnings.
Now let’s walk through a 12 month period in which our hero goes on a long and dreary sojourn through the murky waters of variance.
Jan 1: Bankroll $6000
Win/loss + $2400
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Jan = $6600
Feb 1: Bankroll $6600
Win/Loss + $2000
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Feb = $6800
Mar 1: Bankroll $6800
Win/Loss + $1800
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Mar = $6800
Apr 1: Bankroll $6800
Win/Loss + $1000
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll End of Apr = $6000
May 1: Bankroll $6000
Win/Loss + $100
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll End of May = $4300
June 1: Bankroll $4300 (Hero moves down to $100NL)
Win/Loss + $1000
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll End of June = $3500
July 1: Bankroll $3500 (Hero stays at $100NL)
Win/Loss + $2700
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll End of Jul = $4400
Aug 1: Bankroll $4400 (Hero stays at $100NL)
Win/Loss +300
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Aug = $2900
Sep 1: Bankroll $2900 (Hero stays at $100NL)
Win/Loss +900
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Sep = $2000
Oct 1 : Bankroll $2000 ( hero moves down to $50NL)
Win/Loss + $2000 (killed this game like he used too)
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Oct = $2200
Nov 1: Bankroll $2200 (hero stays at the $50NL)
Win/Loss + $1200
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Nov = $1600
Dec 1: Bankroll $1600 (hero stays at $50NL)
Win/Loss + $1500
Expenses - $1800
Bankroll end of Dec = $1300
Jan 1: Hero is seen filling out an application at Wal-Mart.
So, clearly the variable that is most affecting our hero is his expenses. Our hero really has three choices, reduce expenses, get a job to cover or supplement expenses, or get much, much better at poker so that even with “long” downswings he can cover his expenses without dipping into the bankroll for them each month.
The point of this exercise is to show that even a winning poker player will have a VERY hard time earning a living just from poker winnings and when you take a hard look at expenses, you begin to realize why!