Weighted Ranges

[Mr. Bucket]

This is a rare treat because I feel that for once I understand something that some people posting in this forum may not get. There's a difference between the range we put people on, and the possible hands they can have in a situation.

Example 1: Lets say we sit down at a table with a solid regular we know well (assume we don't defent SB much). He is on our right and in BU and we are in the SB with an unknown in the BB. When you post a hand, players in this forum will ask you to put him on a street by street range, but sometimes this range will be very inaccurate. If the BB is a a 4/2 nit he may be opening 100% of hands. If BB is extremely aggresive, he may be opening a much tighter range.

That villain could be playing 27o or not, we don't know. Sometimes we adjust the ranges we put people on based on the idea that it isn't clear what hands someone has.

Example 2: Now lets say a guy who so far looks like a regular calls a 3bet IP against us BU v BB. We know it would be a leak for him to call our 3bet with 22-88 since we are 100 deep and he doesn't have enough implied odds, but alot of regs have this leak. In evaluating his preflop range we might weight his range by giving him 66-88, and not giving him 22-55 in his range. This statement does not mean he will call 66-88 and fold 22-55. It means he will call 3/7 of the time with 22-88. If the flop comes out 2JK, we can continue to keep his range weighted by putting 3/7 of the combos of trip 2s in his range so maybe we put 1 combo of trip 2's in his range instead of 3.

This is not exact, and it really cannot be as we just pulled the number 3/7 out of our ass. This kind of work is often done to make our math more accurate, but often you can get away with just plugging all of the combos of a hand in cause meh, its close enough. However this is not always the case. Consider this next example.

Example 3: A fishy villain who we have observed calls bets with air often calls our 3bb open bvb. We put him on a very wide range preflop. Flop comes Qd8s8cWe bet the flop, and he calls. At this point we know his range has tons and tons of air as well as queens trips pps and air in it. The turn comes a 2h and we check. The pot is now $2.75 and our villain bets his last $2.25 and we are trying to evaluate a call. Do we think he will play 67s this way? Probably not. In fact, he probably will not play most of his air this way a high % of the time. For simplicity lets assume his range is just air and value. The thing is if for the purpose of this conversation we say 4/5 of his flop calling range is air and he plays his air this way on the turn 1/8 of the time and he plays his value this way 100% of the time 1/3 of his range is still air. This can have a huge impact in evaluating our call in this spot.

Ie. this stuff can matter.

Hope this helps some people as normally its just everyone teaching me stuff.

-buckets

[Razvan729]

dont wanna be rude, but.... wtf is this?! have you reread what you wrote before posting?!

of course we all get out of line sometimes, with diff reasons, but we dont make a decision based on what a villain sometimes does, we base our decisions on what he often does.

if you see me c/r AI A2s on AKQr once, you gonna keep calling me with A3-AT and KQ just cause i did that once? damn... its is very unprofitable to think like this.

or if i raise you with AKdd on Td5d3s you think i always gonna do it with every flush draw?

damn... its is very unprofitable to think like this.

think and analyze a hand considering how villain plays 90% of time not what he does 10% of time, unless you wanna burn money.

[Mr. Bucket]

You are a reg. Regs do random stuff like c/r that hand you just mentioned very very rarely when they are tilting etc and most of the time its not detrimental to ignore these tendencies. Fish are much more prone to doing random things like this. When a fish starts with a range and then acts there ranges are limited far less than regulars because frankly they just smash buttons more.

[Mr. Bucket]

Also worth while to note that this kind of discussion becomes much more relevant when villain's are repping very thin value ranges.

[JR9477]

Not quite sure what's going on in here but sounds like "People do random stuff sometimes".

[Mr. Bucket]

I mean, yeah thats all im really saying, but ive had alot of discussions on here (like 98% where I did something retarted in a hand) but still people dont account for people doing random stuff.

Not quite sure what's going on in here but sounds like "People do random stuff sometimes".

[scott_owen]

example 2..

if he's only got 22-88, give me a reason for a reg villain to continue without the set on this flop.. which ofcourse leads me to the idea that i dont need to weight his range because his flop action is going to place it as either set or no set.

I also don't see a need to weight things to 66-88 when 99-QQ are also clearly in his range and AK. All of which makes our play pretty dependant on our hand, and less dependant on the likely hood that villain has 66-88..

are you going to check/fold the flop with AK here if the flop is KJ6 but cbet if its KJ3?

edit: I see you're underlying point, i just dont see a lot of value in it.. Unless all you're really saying is give good players more credit and bad players less, which is pretty standard play really.

[rpm]

i'm not saying this concept is never going to be valid at any stakes/vs any opponents/at any time, but i have certainly burned a lot of money wrongly accounting for "spazz factor" in my opponents ranges. if you have a particular read that they spazz out in certain spots then definitely, go ahead and make thinner call downs, or whatever your adjustment may be (one example of this that springs to mind is preflop dick-waving contests i've noticed at 50nl where the preflop dynamic is often pretty aggro and it seems to cause some regs to do spastic shit, to some degree). but generally speaking i think that thinking like this is potentially dubious and largely irrelevant to beating microstakes games compared to other concepts like pot equity, fold equity, the ability to detect and exploit particularly weak/strong ranges etc.

i may have mis-interpreted your post, or extended the scope of the idea further than you intended, but that's my two cents.

[Mr. Bucket]

He doesnt have only 22-88 in his range, idk where you got that from. All im talking about is compensating for the fact that he could have 22, in his range, but doesn't always.

@RPM I'm not saying this is something we should consider often. Thing is like random bluffs are put into villain's range sooo seldom when honestly they can make up a decent portions of ranges in some spots.

example 2..

if he's only got 22-88, give me a reason for a reg villain to continue without the set on this flop.. which ofcourse leads me to the idea that i dont need to weight his range because his flop action is going to place it as either set or no set.

I also don't see a need to weight things to 66-88 when 99-QQ are also clearly in his range and AK. All of which makes our play pretty dependant on our hand, and less dependant on the likely hood that villain has 66-88..

are you going to check/fold the flop with AK here if the flop is KJ6 but cbet if its KJ3?

edit: I see you're underlying point, i just dont see a lot of value in it.. Unless all you're really saying is give good players more credit and bad players less, which is pretty standard play really.